Travis Etienne Jr. has struggled mightily throughout the first half of the 2024 NFL season. After missing two straight games with a strained hamstring, could he return for the Jacksonville Jaguars’ Week 9 matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles?
Let’s break down the latest on Etienne’s hamstring injury and what it means for fantasy football managers going forward.
What Is Travis Etienne Jr.’s Injury?
During the Jaguars’ Week 6 game against the Chicago Bears, Etienne exited the game in the second quarter with a hamstring injury.
At that point, Etienne had just three carries for negative one yard. Tank Bigsby took over as the team’s RB1 after Etienne left the game, and he has made the most of his opportunities.
Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson initially described Etienne as “week to week.”
Hamstring injuries have a tendency to linger and, as we’ve seen with guys like Nico Collins and Mike Evans, trying to play through them can lead to a worse injury.
Is Etienne Playing in Week 9?
It remains to be seen if Etienne will return for the Jaguars’ Week 9 game against Philadelphia.
Last week, he was listed as questionable after being a limited participant in practice all week. The veteran running back was a game-time decision ahead of the Week 8 matchup against the Green Bay Packers, but the Jaguars ultimately ruled him out.
This week, he’s in the exact same position.
Etienne was a limited participant in practice all week, and he’s officially questionable on the Jaguars’ injury report. There have also been reports that he’ll be a game-time decision. The only difference this week is that head coach Pederson told reporters on Wednesday that he “feels good” about Etienne returning on Sunday against the Eagles.
Be sure to check the Jaguars’ inactive list before kickoff to see if Etienne can make his return.
How Might Etienne’s Absence Impact the Jaguars?
This is horrible to say, but the Jaguars might actually be better off if Etienne is sidelined. His absence over the last two games allowed Bigsby to shine, turning 44 carries into 196 yards and two touchdowns.
It’s clear Bigsby is the best back on this team. On the season, he now has 85 carries for 493 yards (5.8 yards per attempt) and four touchdowns.
Meanwhile, Etienne has 56 carries for 230 yards (4.1 yards per attempt) and two touchdowns on the season, plus just 91 receiving yards and zero scores through the air. Etienne’s last 11 carries have netted just 19 yards.
After rushing for 1,000 yards in each of the last two seasons and totaling 12 touchdowns last year, Etienne has been incredibly inefficient so far this season. It’s possible that his early season struggles were related to injuries and that he’ll look significantly better once he’s back. But if he’s anything less than 100%, Jacksonville should let him recover and continue to lean on Bigsby.
Bigsby has been more productive and significantly more explosive than Etienne this year, so it will be interesting to see how the coaching staff splits up the touches once the latter returns.
#Jaguars HC Doug Pederson on whether Tank Bigsby will replace Travis Etienne as RB1:
“I don’t think so. I’m a believer where injury doesn’t replace your position. I think you have to have a fair competition… It’s still [Etienne’s] job. But Tank has done some really good things,… pic.twitter.com/UczAjywZg4
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) October 20, 2024
Pederson recently said that he doesn’t believe players should lose their jobs due to injuries and that Etienne is still the RB1. We’ll see how long that lasts.
The Coachspeak Index added in a follow-up tweet that Pederson has a 35% reliability rating. This man is coaching for his job, so it’s hard to imagine he will continue to put the inefficient, plodding Etienne out there over the far superior Bigsby.
Fantasy Outlook for Etienne and Bigsby
Etienne is battling a hamstring injury, but the greater drain on his fantasy potential is Bigsby’s play.
The second-year back has established himself as the go-to option in this backfield, and it’s hard to see that changing in the short term.
This season, Etienne’s production is 17.2% below expectation, a drastic dip from his +8.5% rate a season ago. As mentioned, his last 11 carries have picked up just 19 yards, highlighting a disturbing trend in the process.
This year, Etienne’s yards per carry before contact is up 84.6% from last season, but his yards per carry after contact are down 15.3%. Those two numbers aren’t supposed to work in contrast like that — you’d expect a running back who is getting downhill to be more difficult to tackle, but that hasn’t been the case here. To me, this suggests a change in running style and/or a lack of explosion. No matter how you explain it, it’s discouraging.
Etienne should remain rostered in fantasy leagues due to his proximity to a lead role (and the possibility of a trade before the Nov. 5 deadline), but there’s no reason for him to be started in any format right now.
It’s worth noting that Bigsby has also been limited in practice with an ankle injury, but the general sentiment out of Jacksonville is that this is more injury management than a serious concern.
Bigsby has looked explosive at times, but he needs help — in three of his past four games, he’s averaged less than two feet per carry before contact. Even with those limitations, he’s cleared 75 rushing yards in four of his past five games, establishing himself as the lead back in Jacksonville.
That lead role is enough to keep him in most lineups, but this isn’t a great spot for him.
The Eagles are the sixth-best red-zone defense and allow rushing touchdowns to opposing backs at the third-lowest rate. Bigsby is what he is — a lead back who lacks versatility in a shaky offense.