Jacksonville Jaguars RB Travis Etienne Jr. finished as a top-five fantasy back regardless of format in 2023 by setting career highs in total yards, receptions, and touchdowns. Yet, his current ADP still has him as a back being drafted outside of the top five at the position.
Will Etienne exceed his fantasy football projections for a second consecutive year in 2024?
Travis Etienne Jr.’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 282.8
- Rushing Yards: 1,237.5
- Rushing TDs: 9.3
- Receptions: 54.0
- Receiving Yards: 459.5
- Receiving TDs: 0.6
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 15. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Etienne generated 1,484 total yards and 12 TDs on 325 total touches for a RB3 overall finish in 2023. Additionally, Etienne has rushed for 1,000+ yards and caught 35+ passes in two consecutive years, and he remains without legitimate additional competition for touches in the Jags backfield, considering Tank Bigsby is still projected to be the team’s top backup.
The projections have Etienne finishing with a career high in rushing yards while seeing a small regression in both receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns. If his rushing efficiency can come much closer to his 2022 form (5.11 yards per carry) in comparison to his struggles in 2023 (3.78 yards per carry), then this rushing production is well within the range of outcomes given the career high 267 carries we saw from him last year — a boost of 47 totes from his 2022 season tally.
The work in the passing game is where things get a bit more unclear. Etienne fully has the pass-catching chops to be a 50+ reception threat at the RB position on a yearly basis and clearly has the trust of QB Trevor Lawrence. The issue lies with the context of his 58 receptions in 2023.
Christian Kirk and Zay Jones both dealt with injuries for a large part of last season, which likely played a part in giving Etienne a slight bump in that category from his 35 receptions in 2022. The additions of Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr. could lead to the new wideouts demanding a similar target share to those of Calvin Ridley and Jones last season.
Ultimately, Etienne’s role expansion in 2023, paired with the lack of a relevant additional backfield threat, means we can reasonably expect similar production, if not better numbers, in 2024.
Assuming Etienne can stay healthy — he has played all 17 games both of the last two seasons — then another top-10 fantasy season at the running back position should fall right into line with this projection.
Should You Draft Etienne This Year?
Etienne’s ADP at No. 45 overall in the fourth round as the RB11 off the board in full-PPR formats feels like stealing at the moment. Given the lack of competition in this backfield and the obvious three-down skill set he possesses, Etienne is an outside threat to lead the NFL in total touches in 2024.
Etienne currently going behind De’Von Achane feels a bit confusing to me. I fully understand the per-touch efficiency is noteworthy between these two players, but the projected volume of touches has a pretty wide gap too. Sure, we ideally want our players to be highly efficient. Unfortunately, it’s far more important for them to see volume on a weekly basis. Truly, the same case could be made for Etienne over a player like Jahmyr Gibbs.
Although the efficiency wasn’t there last year, and this offensive line does have some concerns entering the 2024 season, Etienne is positioned to be a featured player in an offense that still has top-ten scoring potential in the NFL.
Etienne is the type of fantasy player who isn’t getting the love he deserves after a very productive season. You shouldn’t be passing on him at his current price.