In every fantasy football draft, managers need to be malleable. You can’t get fixated on drafting specific players and need to let the draft come to you. But that doesn’t mean you don’t have some players you really, really want on your teams.
Today, we’re focusing on the top WRs I don’t want to leave my drafts without. These are “my guys.”
Top WRs To Draft in Fantasy Football in 2024
Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins
I have “my guys” at every position. Of the players I am targeting, one stands above the rest: Jaylen Waddle.
There is no player I want more, and it is unfortunate that his draft position and ADP make it so that I can’t guarantee I get him in every draft. But maybe you can.
Why is Waddle’s ADP WR20? Through three seasons, he’s never averaged lower than 14.2 fantasy points per game, which was last year. That put him at WR21, by far the lowest finish of his three-year career.
Now, this 25-year-old WR firmly in his prime in one of the most explosive offensives in a league with a consolidated target tree is being drafted at his floor. Why?
Waddle is being knocked for getting hurt and some bad touchdown luck. He had over 1,000 receiving yards in just 14 games last season and scored a mere four touchdowns. If he scored seven, he would’ve finished right around where he did each of his first two seasons.
If Waddle didn’t get banged up in multiple games, missing chunks of time, he might have posted WR1 numbers. And none of this even accounts for the potential that Tyreek Hill takes a step back in his age-30 season or misses a few games.
It’s just all upside with Waddle.
Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals
The fantasy community seems to lack consistency when it decides to ding players for injuries or playing in bad offenses. As you may have gathered, I am here to scoop up all the value on the players unfairly pushed down.
What exactly did Tee Higgins do wrong last year? The optics of going from 15.7 to 13.1 to 11.5 fantasy points per game in the past three seasons are obviously not good. And I certainly don’t want to fall prey to making excuses for players who are bad at football. I’m just really confident Higgins is good at football and would have been a high WR2 each of the past two seasons if not for some bad luck.
Higgins is likely being knocked down because of two years of underperformance. But is that what happened?
In 2022, Higgins didn’t really average 13.1 ppg. His Week 1 goose egg was a true anomaly. If we take that out, as well as the three games he left early, Higgins actually averaged 15.8 fantasy points per game. That looks pretty much in line with what he did in his breakout sophomore season.
Now, what about last year?
That’s even easier to explain away. Higgins was once again banged up throughout the year. He left three games early, scoring 3.9, 4.0, and 2.9 fantasy points in those contests. He also played nearly the entire season without a healthy Joe Burrow.
I am more than willing to give Higgins a mulligan for last season. The year prior, he wasn’t actually bad. The year before that, he looked to be on the path to being a WR1. The Bengals’ WR2 is mispriced and is an absolute must-draft for me this season.
Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs
This one is a bit in flux and will depend on when you draft/who you draft with.
Rashee Rice was trending toward being a third- or fourth-round pick this season. Then, an offseason incident that will almost certainly result in a suspension served to depress his ADP.
As the summer wore on and we didn’t hear any news of a potential suspension, Rice’s ADP started to creep back up.
If it gets too high, then Rice will come off this list. Everything is related to cost. But right now, he hasn’t gotten there yet. As long as Rice is going outside of the top four rounds, he is a smash in all formats.
From Weeks 12-17 last season, Rice averaged 18.47 fantasy points per game. Those are mid-WR1 numbers.
I am not worried about increased target competition. Rice is the WR1. Plus, the Chiefs’ offense was the worst it has ever been during the Patrick Mahomes era last season. I am expecting a massive bounce back.
Even if Rice’s volume goes down, his efficiency should go up. Rice is a screaming bargain anywhere in Round 6 or later. I would take him in Round 5.
Diontae Johnson, Carolina Panthers
This is the fourth year out of the last five that Diontae Johnson has been one of “my guys.” He’s just perennially undervalued (except last year, the first time I didn’t target him).
Per ESPN Analytics: since 2021, new Panthers WR Diontae Johnson ranks first in the league in “Open Score”, measuring a WR’s “likelihood to complete a catch, conditional on if he were targeted.”
🔗 https://t.co/Jbnb5siweb pic.twitter.com/yi5YTI37FY
— John Ellis (@1PantherPlace) June 19, 2024
The only reason Johnson isn’t viewed as one of the league’s premier receivers is because just as he was emerging into one, Ben Roethlisberger retired, and the Steelers have been unable to replace him with a competent option.
It certainly remains to be seen whether Carolina’s Bryce Young will qualify. But I have far more confident in last year’s No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft making a leap than anything Johnson has had to deal with since Big Ben retired.
We just saw Adam Thielen post elite WR1 numbers for half a season before falling off, likely due to the fact that he was 33 years old. Johnson now steps into the unquestioned WR1 role for the Panthers. There’s a very real chance he sees a 30% target share.
At a WR37 ADP, Johnson is being drafted at his floor. That’s all upside. No downside. Now, to be fair, the upside isn’t that great.
Unless the Panthers emerge into a top-half offense, Johnson’s ceiling is likely capped around WR24. But if you could get the WR24 from the WR36 by ADP right now, you’d sign for that.
Give me all the Johnson this season.