The Commanders/Bucs game carries the highest total of the weekend at 50.5 points. When these teams last met, the Bucs won 37-20 -- that's 57 points scored. Daniels finished his rookie season averaging 21.1 fantasy points per game. He was the overall QB4. The Bucs allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. While this game could go either way, the Bucs are small home favorites and the more likely team to win. Hopefully, we get a big game out of Daniels in a losing effort, keeping Baker Mayfield on the board for future rounds.
There is some concern that Joe Mixon continues his late-season struggles against a Chargers defense allowing the third-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. However, Mixon still averaged 18.2 fantasy points per game this season and was the overall RB6. After playing just one drive in the regular season finale, Mixon should be ready to go on Saturday. He should see as much work as he can handle with next week no longer promised. Despite being at home, the Texans are underdogs. I do think they lose this game, making this the only time we will get to use Mixon. If he duds, that obviously won't be great, but hopefully he can get us at least 15 fantasy points and not cost us any players we might want to use in future weeks.
The Rams rested starters in Week 18, meaning Williams will be fresh for this game. He averaged 17.0 fantasy points per game on the season. While the Vikings have been a pass-funnel defense most of the year, their run defense kind of fell apart over the past month. Minnesota surrendered 70 rushing yards on 19 carries to D'Andre Swift, 98 yards and two touchdowns to Josh Jacobs and Emanuel Wilson, and then got completely eviscerated by Jahmyr Gibbs to the tune of 170 total yards and four touchdowns. With Blake Corum out due to a broken arm, we may very well get close to 100% snap share Williams. As long as he produces, I'm fine with using him now even if the Rams end up winning.
Nacua averaged 18.8 fantasy points per game this season. He was 21.8 if you remove the two games he left early due to injury/throwing a punch. Sean McVay is never one to mess around with player usage. He knows where his bread is buttered and he funnels touches to his main guys. Nacua may see 15+ targets this week. The Vikings allowed the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers this past year. The game environment and matchup is simply too good to pass up.
Admittedly, it will be difficult for Mixon and Nico Collins to both have big games in a loss. However, the nature of this fantasy playoff format is we need to predict the outcome of games and make selections with conviction. If we hedge our bets and take competing players, we will end up running out of options down the line, and there will always be other teams out there who do not run out of options. Collins averaged 17.8 fantasy points per game this season, finishing as the overall WR7. The Chargers were right in the middle of the pack against wide receivers this season, and Collins is the clear alpha with virtually no target competition. Let's use him now and hope he posts big numbers in a loss.
We can go with a Steeler here, as tight end is a wasteland in the fantasy playoffs. Each of the top six tight ends by fantasy points per game played for a team that did not make the playoffs. The seventh was Travis Kelce, who has the week off. Without any clear top option, Pat Freiermuth makes a ton of sense. With the Steelers heavy underdogs, taking Freiermuth is unlikely to cost you in subsequent rounds. The Ravens have been below average against the tight end, allowing the 12th-most fantasy points per game to the position. Plus, over the final few weeks of the season, Freiermuth has been a pretty solid fantasy option, hitting double-digit fantasy points in four of his last five.
The Eagles are very likely to win this game, which makes Jacobs a safe pick from the perspective that he won't be available next week. The concern is if he doesn't find the end zone, he may not score that many points. In Week 1, Jacobs touched the ball 18 times against the Eagles, but since he didn't score, he only managed 12.4 fatasy points, one of his lowest outings of the season. But if you can start a third running back, he's an appealing option.
George Pickens is also a safe bet for a talented player that you won't have available next week. However, I do not want to take two Steelers and Pickens is far from a sure thing to produce. That's not to say Courtland Sutton is a lock. However, he's been phenomenal over the second half of the season. Back in Week 7, Sutton amazingly didn't see a single target against the Saints. Since then, he's hit double-digit fantasy points in every contest, averaging 17.6 fantasy points per game. The Bills are not a favorable matchup, but they're not a bad one either, ranking roughly in the middle in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. With Sutton almost certainly not available beyond this week, he's a very appealing option.
