With five NFL head coach vacancies on the board, some openings are bound to be more alluring than others. We’ve decided to help out prospective candidates by sorting through the available opportunities and ranking the vacancies based on ownership, roster talent, financial flexibility, and draft capital. Which jobs are the most appealing, and which ones should coaches stay away from?
NFL Head Coach Vacancies Ranked
5) Indianapolis Colts
The Colts looked like the AFC South favorites at the outset of the 2022 season. With trade acquisition Matt Ryan set to take over under center for a team that already had stars like Jonathan Taylor, Quenton Nelson, DeForest Bucker, and Shaquille Leonard, Indianapolis appeared set to rebound from the sting of its Carson Wentz-led 2021 campaign and push for its first division title under Frank Reich.
Instead, nearly everything went wrong. Ryan played like a shell of himself, and it didn’t help that Indy’s once-vaunted offensive line devolved into one of the worst units in the NFL. Taylor couldn’t replicate his historical production from the previous year, and no one else on the Colts’ offense picked up the slack. Reich was fired at midseason, and owner Jim Irsay made the curious decision to install former center and ESPN analyst Jeff Saturday as the club’s interim head coach.
That choice by Irsay — and the rambling press conference in which he introduced Saturday as Reich’s replacement — has to give any coaches involved in the Colts’ search pause. Irsay has always been an oddball among NFL owners, but he’d never quite interfered in football operations as much as he did in 2022. Although general manager Chris Ballard has been retained, it’s fair to wonder how involved Irsay will be in personnel matters in the future and what Indy’s decision-making structure will look like.
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The Colts hold the fourth overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, and it seems clear they’ll use that selection on a quarterback. Hitting on a rookie signal-caller would represent a significant step in the right direction for Indianapolis, which has rotated between a cast of veteran quarterbacks for the past five years.
Still, any coach taking over this roster should be concerned about its foundation. There are intriguing pieces on the Colts’ depth chart, but so many dealt with injury issues in 2022 that it’s fair to wonder what their outlook will be heading into next year. Indianapolis can get to roughly $30 million in cap space by releasing Ryan, per Over the Cap, but this isn’t a team that historically attacks the free agent market with fervor.
Ballard has demonstrated the capacity to build competitive rosters in the past, but the Colts could get left behind if they’re not willing to spend on external additions. Given that they play in a division that includes Trevor Lawrence’s Jacksonville Jaguars and the Houston Texans — who rank higher in our list of head coaching destinations — Indianapolis is the least attractive vacancy on the board.
Top Candidates Connected to Colts
Eric Bieniemy, Ejiro Evero, Aaron Glenn, Mike Kafka, Don Martindale, Raheem Morris, Dan Quinn, DeMeco Ryans, Jeff Saturday, Shane Steichen, Bubba Ventrone
4) Arizona Cardinals
The most important thing to know about the Cardinals is that they’ve historically been run like a family business. The Bidwills have owned the franchise since its inception in 1932, and they’ve typically been reticent to think outside the box.
However, the Cardinals may finally be altering their approach. Earlier this week, they hired former Tennessee Titans executive Monti Ossenfort as their new GM. Ossenfort, who will construct Arizona’s roster via methods learned under Bill Belichick in New England, is now leading the Cards’ search for a new head coach.
How the Cardinals’ list of candidates feels about Ossenfort — and the bandwidth he’ll be given by ownership — could ultimately determine how appetizing a landing spot Arizona is. Hopefully, the addition of Ossenfort signals that the team is ready to start fresh and turn over its roster.
The Cardinals are set at quarterback, where Kyler Murray is locked in through the 2028 campaign after inking a five-year, $230.5 million extension. Murray may not be ready for the start of next season after tearing his ACL in December, but given his contract, he will be Arizona’s signal-caller for the foreseeable future.
Aside from Murray, the rest of the Cards’ depth chart needs serious work. Keim routinely whiffed on draft choices and free agent signings, and Arizona’s roster is now in the worst possible place — it lacks talent, and it’s also old. Veterans like DeAndre Hopkins, James Conner, Rodney Hudson, and Zach Ertz won’t be on this team in two years, and some of them may be gone by the start of the 2023 campaign.
Whoever takes over as the Cardinals’ next head coach needs to be willing to stick around for the long haul, as rebuilding a roster in this state of disrepair will take time. That coach will have to cross his fingers and hope he gets more time than Steve Wilks, whom Arizona fired after one 3-13 season in 2018.
Top Candidates Connected to Cardinals
Ejiro Evero, Brian Flores, Vance Joseph, Sean Payton, Frank Reich, DeMeco Ryans
3) Denver Broncos
For the right candidate, the Broncos’ head coaching job offers all sorts of attractive features. The Walton family, the richest ownership group in the NFL, now headlines the club. The league’s salary cap will prevent them from overly flexing their financial muscle on personnel, but everything else — facilities, amenities, coaching salaries — should be first class.
Denver also boasts a decent roster. A core of Cortland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Javonte Williams, and Greg Dulcich gives the Broncos a place to start on offense, while Ejiro Evero’s defense was among the best in the NFL for much of the season. Convincing Evero, who’s generated plenty of interest around the league both as a head coach and a coordinator, to stay in Denver would be a boon for the club’s next HC.
And yet, QB Russell Wilson might be the deciding factor for any coach interested in heading to the Mile High City. The Broncos shipped a hefty trade package to the Seahawks in exchange for Wilson, then signed him sight unseen to a five-year, $245 million extension that made him the NFL’s second-highest-paid quarterback.
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The 34-year-old proceeded to post the worst statistical season of his career, finishing 27th in both expected points added per dropback and QBR while generally looking like a quarterback who forgot how to play football. Denver can’t realistically release Wilson until after the 2023 campaign, and even a post-June 1 cut at that time would result in a $39 million dead money charge.
The Broncos’ next head coach likely needs to be open-minded about his approach to Wilson. Denver will have no choice but to try to fix Wilson this offseason and give him another chance in 2023. But they’ll have to be willing to move on next offseason and start over under center if he looks the same as he did in 2022.
The Wilson trade also robbed the Broncos of their first- and second-round picks in this year’s draft. Denver acquired another first-rounder by trading Bradley Chubb to the Miami Dolphins at the deadline, but that selection won’t come until the end of Day 1. The Broncos don’t have a lot of avenues to get better or younger, especially given that they project to have less than $10 million in cap space.
And we haven’t even discussed the strength of the Broncos’ division. The AFC West wasn’t the powerhouse we expected in 2022, but the division will feature Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert for the next decade. Depending on whether Wilson rebounds, Denver could be stuck in the doldrums for years to come.
Top Candidates Connected to Broncos
Jim Caldwell, Ejiro Evero, Raheem Morris, Dan Quinn, DeMeco Ryans, Sean Payton, David Shaw
2) Houston Texans
The Texans’ ownership and front office have mangled their decision-making processes in recent offseasons. In each of the last two years, Houston has hired a coach, given him no help on the roster, then fired them after unsurprisingly lackluster campaigns. David Culley and Lovie Smith weren’t exactly competing for Coach of the Year awards, but neither had a serious opportunity to build a team in Houston.
In a way, that abominable track record could give the next Texans’ head coach more leverage. Even if Houston struggles for another season or two as they continue to rebuild, it’s almost inconceivable that the club, already the NFL’s laughingstock, could fire another head coach. If anything, the Texans would likely part ways with general manager Nick Caserio and give their head coach even more power.
If you can get past the recent missteps by Houston’s power structure, the Texans’ job begins to look pretty inviting. After trading Deshaun Watson to the Browns for a package that included three first-round picks and more, Caserio hit on a number of his 2022 selections, including cornerback Derek Stingley Jr., safety Jalen Pitre, and running back Dameon Pierce.
The Watson trade is the deal that keeps on giving because the Texans also have extra 2023 picks in the first and third rounds. Houston’s own first-rounder sits at No. 2 overall, so they will be able to grab a franchise quarterback — likely either Alabama’s Bryce Young, Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud, or Kentucky’s Will Levis — with that selection. Cleveland’s choice at No. 12 will allow the Texans to land another impact player or trade back and acquire even more capital.
Houston also has more than $40 million in available cap space. The 2023 free agent class isn’t loaded with stars, but the Texans can target a few veterans to help raise their floor. Houston’s own crop of pending free agents isn’t all that impressive, so they shouldn’t have to worry about avoiding free agency in order to boost any potential compensatory selections.
In the AFC South, the Titans are poised to take another step backward, while we’ve already discussed the Colts’ issues. If the Texans find the right head coach and draft the right quarterback, they could be fighting the Jaguars for the division crown as soon as next season.
Top Candidates Connected to Texans
Thomas Brown, Jonathan Gannon, Mike Kafka, Sean Payton, DeMeco Ryans, Shane Steichen
1) Carolina Panthers
Whichever head coach accepts the Panthers’ head coaching job will know he’s walking into a situation where instantaneous winning should be possible. The NFC South is a dreadful division. It’s fresh off sending the 8-9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers to the playoffs and watching them get stomped in the first round by the Dallas Cowboys.
Next year, things could look even worse. Tom Brady might depart Tampa Bay and leave the Bucs with an aging, subpar roster. The New Orleans Saints are still stuck in financial hell for the time being. And like the Panthers, the Atlanta Falcons are still searching for their franchise quarterback, but the rest of Atlanta’s roster is far less talented than Carolina’s.
The Panthers nearly won the NFC South in 2022, and if they can land a quarterback, they could be the prohibitive division favorites for the next several years. Between DJ Moore and Ikem Ekwonu on offense and Brian Burns, Jaycee Horn, and Jeremy Chinn on defense, Carolina has a number of exciting playmakers that could form the basis of a championship roster.
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Although the Panthers are projected to be slightly over the cap next season, they should be able to restructure enough contracts to give themselves breathing room. Besides, most of Carolina’s short-term rebuilding can be done through the draft.
The Panthers hold the ninth pick in the 2023 draft. That will probably put them just outside the range of this year’s elite quarterback prospects, but they have the ability to trade up. Carolina acquired extra picks in the second, third, fourth, and fifth rounds by trading Christian McCaffrey last season, and they can use that ammunition to move up the board for a signal-caller. Trading up in the draft is generally a fool’s errand, but being aggressive for a quarterback is usually acceptable.
Panthers owner David Tepper is reportedly all-in on Sean Payton, who will likely cost Carolina a first-round pick — either in this year’s draft or in the future — to acquire from the division-rival Saints. But even a lower-profile head coach should be able to work wonders with the Panthers’ roster and put them in contention beginning in 2023.
Top Candidates Connected to Panthers
Jim Caldwell, Ejiro Evero, Ken Dorsey, Mike Kafka, Kellen Moore, Sean Payton, Frank Reich, DeMeco Ryans, Shane Steichen, Steve Wilks