If you’re playing a Cincinnati Bengals vs. Atlanta Falcons DFS lineup for Sunday in Week 7, you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Bengals Considerations
Concerning Cincinnati, our DFS lineup will include some combination of the team’s “big four”: Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins.
Secondary options like Samaje Perine, Tyler Boyd, and Hayden Hurst should be considered as largely TD-dependent fill-ins.
Meanwhile, we might consider semi-elite kicker Evan McPherson or even the Bengals D/ST, which is yielding the 10th-fewest points despite facing several good-to-great offenses.
In other words, we have nine entities to choose from across the DFS pricing spectrum. In a blowout victory, we might imagine an uptick for Perine and McPherson. In a low-scoring game driven by field position, Cincy’s D/ST could be a big winner.
Falcons Considerations
We don’t have the same luxury of choices with Atlanta. And we might have to go bargain hunting — I don’t foresee any huge performances against a solid Bengals pass defense.
I’ve highlighted Olamide Zaccheaus all season as an affordable TD-dependent option with a little pop. Presumably playing from behind, Marcus Mariota will need to keep looking his way deep into this game.
Speaking of which, if we want Mariota, we’ll need to pay Higgins-level pricing (or possibly more). Is it worth it?
If it is, we’d have to believe either Drake London or Kyle Pitts also could be worth the plunge. But if we do this, we probably won’t be able to afford more than two Cincinnati “greats.”
Top DFS Lineup for Bengals vs. Falcons
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players.
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
I’ve tried various lineup combinations with Burrow, Chase, and Higgins as Captain. Burrow is $18,000 as Captain, while Chase is $17,700. Higgins is much cheaper at $13,200. That said, adding Higgins doesn’t materially improve our remaining options. There are many “good” players in the pool but only a few elite talents, and Burrow carries the highest floor.
Consequently, we’re moving forward with Burrow ($12,000 normally, $18,000 as Captain) in our Captain slot, along with Chase ($11,800) and Higgins ($8,800). I debated adding the Bengals’ D/ST, but they’ll probably need a touchdown to exceed Hurst’s realistic ceiling. They’re comparably priced. I’ll go with Hurst and his higher upside.
MORE: Top Bengals vs. Falcons Player Props
With only $6,000 remaining, the final two slots might seem unconventional. They’re based on likely game flow. The Falcons probably will be forced to pass early and often. Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley are not known for their pass-catching prowess. So, I’m anticipating plenty of looks to Olamide Zaccheaus ($5,800) and am willing to throw a dart on Parker Hesse ($200).
We could downgrade Hurst to McPherson and upgrade Zaccheaus to Pitts. By Sunday afternoon, that might seem like the right move. But at this moment, it’s a toss-up at best. If Cincy finds the end zone as much as I think they will, why settle for 7-10 points from McPherson when Hurst might crack 15 if he scores?
And is Pitts that much better than Zaccheaus? On paper, sure, we could make a compelling case. But the way they’ve been utilized, we’d be hard-pressed to say Pitts’ ceiling — specifically right now — is higher than Zaccheaus’.
And what about Hesse? He’s seen 40+ offensive snaps in every game this season. That doesn’t mean he’ll be involved in the passing game. But he has a catch in each of Atlanta’s three losses. If this game is essentially over by the late third quarter, we could see some extra work for Hesse. And his cheap price enables us to land three elite players and two “good” players.