If you enjoy making NFL bets on player touchdowns, or if the thought has crossed your mind, then welcome to our Week 9 rundown of favorite anytime TD scorer predictions for Thursday Night Football, Texans vs. Eagles.
We’ve analyzed the game’s highest-probability scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are the best bets to reach the end zone. All prop bets are taken from DraftKings.
Thursday Night Football Anytime TD Scorer Predictions
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics culled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Miles Sanders (-115)
Miles Sanders is a fascinating RB. Heading into this season, he had earned his fewest touches in fourth quarters, totaling less than 19% of his workload. But this year, he’s earned the most touches in fourth quarters, accounting for a whopping 35% of his workload.
What happened here? To start with, the Eagles are more committed to Sanders as their lead back. Kenneth Gainwell hasn’t been as involved, and Boston Scott is largely in a mop-up role. In the final year of his rookie contract, Sanders is earning bell-cow usage for the first time in his career.
The undefeated Eagles clearly trust Sanders down the stretch. And why not? If you’ve got a guy averaging 5.1 yards per carry on 594 career rushing attempts, there’s no reason to keep him under wraps.
MORE: Early NFL Week 9 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread
Sanders is also ninth among RBs in red-zone touches per game (3.0), up from 1.9 per contest last season, when he inexplicably was scoreless. All five of his rushing scores have been from 11 yards out or closer, including twice from the 1-yard line.
On Thursday, he’ll face a defense yielding the second-most rushing yards per carry (5.6) and the fifth-most rushing scores (10).
And yes, Sanders will have to contend with Jalen Hurts’ six rushing scores, including five from the 3-yard line or closer. In fact, Hurts has a dozen rushing TDs from the 1-to-3-yard line since the start of last season.
But if we believe Philly’s a good bet for at least three touchdowns, and if we believe they’ll enjoy a positive game script that lends greater weight to the running game, then Sanders is a terrific bet to score.
DeVonta Smith (+190)
Last season, Hurts and his top four RBs ran the ball 68 times inside the opposing 10-yard line (compared to only 25 pass attempts). DeVonta Smith earned only five looks, tying him for 49th-most among WRs/TEs. Inside the red zone, he was tied for 85th among WRs/TEs.
At the time, Smith’s underutilization seemed shocking. The 2021 first-round pick was clearly the most talented WR in this corps. Yet, we also needed to consider that Hurts was still developing as a passer.
Hurts had the worst completion percentage (61.3%) among last year’s top 22 fantasy QBs. The year before, his 52% completion percentage was the worst mark for any quarterback with 45+ pass attempts. As I shared with PFN Pass subscribers this summer, “Hurts’ improvement as a pocket passer could influence whether Smith is a deep-league streamer, a rock-solid streamer, or (realistic best-case scenario) a weekly fantasy starter.”
Since Smith’s inexplicable statistical wipeout in Week 1, he’s averaged a healthy 6.3 catches for 70 yards per game. And while scoring only twice, he’s had his share of close calls. In Week 2, he was tackled at the opposing 5-yard line. Two weeks later, he was tackled at the 16 on one drive and at the 12 on another.
I wouldn’t be hung up on the glaring stat that Houston has surrendered only five receiving TDs — the second-fewest in the league. Aside from a seemingly less-than-100% Justin Herbert, they’ve faced QBs Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, Trevor Lawrence, Derek Carr, and Malik Willis. They have not contended with a fully functional passing attack like Philadelphia’s.
Smith is a 50/50 bet to score. His market line is favorable.
Eagles D/ST (+400)
Many factors go into predicting when a team will score a defensive or special teams touchdown. And candidly, most of them have a wide range of possibilities.
Consider all the times a punter — often the last guy standing between a punt returner and the end zone — somehow stopped that returner from going the distance. Or a linebacker who catches an errant pass with no tackler nearby instead of in a crowd.
Last season, the Cowboys led the league in forced turnovers (34) and D/ST touchdowns (nine). The Colts forced 33 turnovers but scored only three D/ST TDs.
You know who else had three D/ST TDs? The Jaguars, only forcing nine turnovers. That’s right: Jacksonville’s bottom-tier defense converted 33% of their takeaways into D/ST scores, while Indy’s top-10 defense converted only 9%. That’s why predicting D/ST touchdowns is so difficult — some might say random.
But it’s not entirely random. While there are plenty of outliers, on balance, high-takeaway defenses produce better bets for D/ST scores than low-takeaway defenses. And the Eagles lead the league with 2.3 forced turnovers per game.
However, the Texans are committing only 1.0 turnovers per game — tied for fifth-fewest in the league. So, how can we feel comfortable betting on an Eagles D/ST TD?
Well, I’m never “comfortable” about these D/ST bets. But we need to factor in the context of Houston’s first seven games. In four of those matchups, they led in the fourth quarter. They were tied in another game. In their other two, they trailed by merely a touchdown.
Despite their 1-5-1 record, the Texans have had a legitimate shot at winning every game. They’re also averaging the fourth-fewest offensive plays per game and the fifth-lowest offensive time of possession.
Davis Mills hasn’t had to operate much in urgent catch-up mode. For context, Derek Carr on the 2-5 Raiders has thrown 132 passes in the fourth quarter, often while trailing. Mills has thrown only 72, partly because Houston’s had trouble sustaining drives. Fewer passes often equates to fewer mistakes.
Consequently, betting on the Eagles D/ST to score means betting on Philly to take a big lead early enough to force Mills to throw more than he’s accustomed to — to begin catch-up mode in the third quarter rather than late in the fourth.
Again, we’re playing the probabilities. We’re wagering on this game to be like any other for Houston. We’re betting on a more mistake-prone Mills to take more chances, and that the Eagles have enough defensive talent not only to force turnovers but also evade would-be tacklers and take one to the house.