With the 2020 NFL season slowly inching closer, sportsbooks decided to release the lines for all of the opening week of action. Using the odds listed at Sports Betting Dime, the Pro Football Network betting team put together their three favorite NFL Week 1 bets with a focus on some totals.
There will likely be quite a bit of variance in the build-up to opening day, with teams still making roster adjustments and in the midst of contract negotiations. However, with everything that we already know, these three totals have been deemed “off” by our experts. The closer we get to opening week, the more these totals will move, so make sure to grab them now at what we think is their best numbers.
Top three early Week 1 total bets of the 2020 NFL season
Ben Rolfe
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings: Under 46.5 (-110) 1 unit
This game has the makings of a good old fashioned NFC North slugfest. Both teams had their moments last year when it came to racking up the points, as they ranked seventh and 15th in points scored in 2019. However, when they faced each other the story was somewhat different, as their two matchups saw an average of 35 points scored.
Looking back through the recent history of these two teams, only one of their last six contests have seen more than 46 points scored (the 29-29 tie in 2018) and just twice in their last 10. Both teams appeared to commit more towards being a run-first team during the offseason, and we could see two teams who ranked in the top half in carries in 2019 lean further in that direction next year.
[sv slug=betsocial]James Aguirre
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions: Over 43.5 (-110) 1 unit
Amongst the factors I look at to determine an over or an under, the Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions game has three which point to the over. First off, both teams were in the top half of the league in situation neutral (+/- 8 points) pace on early downs. Why do I use these parameters? It gives us more of a sense of what these teams want to be. Chicago ranked 14th, while Detroit ranked seventh according to Sharp Football Stats.
The second factor is the pass-to-rush ratio within the same parameters. Chicago passed on 56% of its plays within these circumstances. Detroit only passed on 49% of their plays, but they had a 53% success rate (ninth in the league) in early-down passes through Week 9 (the last game Matthew Stafford started).
The third factor which favors the over is location. This game will be played in a dome, which historically favors offenses.
A fourth factor to consider, which is a little more important this offseason, is that both teams will return their coaching staff from last season. While there is some ambiguity with Chicago’s quarterback situation, I think Mitchell Trubisky will be the starter come Week 1. Nick Foles won’t have enough time to learn the offense given the extenuating circumstances of this offseason.
As for Stafford, he will be ready to go come the first week of the season. The total is set at the key number of 44 in several offshore sites (courtesy of Sports Betting Dime). However, you can get a 43.5 if you have access to Bet Now. I like getting under the key number of 44, though I do think over 44 is worth a wager as well.
Ryan Gosling
Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams: Over 50 (-110) 1 unit
One of the defining features of 2020’s version of the Dallas Cowboys is going to be the potency of their offense. With the addition of CeeDee Lamb in the NFL Draft, the Cowboys’ offense now consists of one of the best run games in football with Ezekiel Elliott, a dual-threat quarterback in Dak Prescott, and the combination of Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and Lamb on the outside. The weapons are in place for this team to score points.
On the other side of the ball, Dallas’ offseason has been a little bit more brutal. Not only will they be implementing a brand new system under new defensive coach Mike Nolan, but they also lost key pieces. Cornerback Byron Jones left for a huge contract with Miami, Maliek Collins and safety Jeff Heath both left for the Raiders, and Robert Quinn signed with Chicago. The mass exodus of defensive players means that the unit will be quite different in 2020.
Even though the Cowboys added veteran pieces to try and stop the bleeding, I still think Dallas will need time for their defense to mesh. With a potentially limited offseason, this could be even more crucial in the upcoming season. If Dallas is going to want to be successful, they will need to put up points to win games early and often. With the offense bringing back a lot of the same pieces and keeping Kellen Moore as their offensive coordinator, they should be clicking a lot sooner than the defense.
For us to reach this total, the highest on the board for Week 1 besides the Thursday night opener, we will need both teams to put up points. That is a scary thought when looking at Jared Goff and the Los Angeles Rams offense.
The Cowboys finished 2019 ranked sixth in total points scored per game (27.1), meanwhile, the Rams surprisingly finished 10th (24.6). Even though Goff disappointed in his first season after his mega-deal, the offense still found ways to score. This might be a little bit tougher in 2020 now that they have let go of weapons such as Todd Gurley and Brandin Cooks.
However, with this being the first game in their new multi-billion-dollar stadium, I have confidence that Sean McVay will be able to put up points. In the three seasons he has headed the team, the Rams have always put up more than 25 points in their first week. In 2017 they scored a whopping 47, 33 in 2018, and 27 in 2019. For all of their flaws, McVay knows how to get his guys ready for Week 1.
The Rams were fourth in passing yards last season, and I expect that pass-happy trend to continue this season. With a questionable secondary that will need time to gel in Dallas, I think both these teams will put up points Week 1. I still think Dallas finds a way to win a close shootout, but this number is too low at 50.