Josh Allen is the best quarterback in fantasy and he has a very strong chance of playing in at least two games. Given that the Bills were the only team to beat the real Chiefs this year, investing in their offense is strong counter-play to managers who go all in on Kansas City.
The Lions are justifiably the favorites to reach the Super Bowl. It will be chalky, but it’s hard to justify not taking every fantasy-relevant Lion in this type of playoff challenge. Even if David Montgomery were healthy, we’d still be all in on Gibbs. Without Montgomery, Gibbs is a nuclear weapon. Over the past two years, Gibbs averages 16.9 fantasy points per game with Montgomery on the field against 23.7 ppg without him.
The NFC feels very top heavy. It’s difficult to envision the NFC Championship Game not being between the Lions and Eagles. Given that the Eagles play this weekend, a Super Bowl run would result in them playing four games, whereas the Lions can only potentially play three. It makes players on No. 2 seeds immensely valuable. If your rosters are smaller and you can only load up on one team from each conference, the Eagles are an excellent contrarian play against the chalk that is the Lions.
Pairing Derrick Henry with Lamar Jackson virtually guarantees every Ravens touchdown. In full season fantasy, that could be viewed as capping your weekly upside. In playoff fantasy, it’s covering all your bases. Henry torched the Steelers the last time these teams played and ran for 199 yards against the Bills in Week 4. Even if we only get two games out of him, they should be very productive games.
At wide receiver, we start with the clear top pick. There’s absolutely no value in selecting Amon-Ra St. Brown. Literally every team is going to do it. But if you don’t, you won’t be able to keep up with the proverbial Joneses. He’s a must-pick.
This pick is entirely about scoring as many points as possible. Puka Nacua may very well only play one game. If that’s all we get, it’s perfectly fine as long as he does what he’s been doing. If you remove the game he got hurt and the game he got ejected, Nacua’s 17-game pace put him on track to earn 200 targets. He’s an elite talent with the perfect QB in the perfect system. There’s no 1a/1b debate with Cooper Kupp anymore. Nacua is the 1. Nacua averaged 18.8 fantasy points per game this season, but that bumps up to 21.8 ppg if you remove the two games he did not finish. The Vikings allowed the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season. If Nacua does only get to play one game, he should go out with a bang.
Of course, if something wild happens like the Bucs or Rams making the Super Bowl, this strategy will fail. However, it really feels like the NFC’s representative will be the Lions or Eagles. It’s chalky, but going contrarian is only worth it if you truly believe in the upset. A.J. Brown averaged 16.7 ppg this season. The Eagles may want to run, but when they face tougher opponents like everyone in the postseason, Brown should have a chance to see more volume. Either way, he’s very likely to play at least two games, if not three. And would it really shock anyone if the Eagles upset the Lions and reached the Super Bowl?
It feels like Xavier Worthy’s close to his rookie season largely flew under the radar. Perhaps it’s because Worthy benefitted immensely from layup targets. Worthy isn’t really winning on legitimate routes. Instead, the Chiefs are scheming him the ball. While that doesn’t bode well for his long-term success, for fantasy purposes, we don’t really care how he gets the receptions. From Weeks 11-17 Worthy averaged 15.5 fantasy points per game. During the three most important weeks of the fantasy season, 15-17, Worthy scored at least 19.6 fantasy points in all of them. If the Chiefs make the Super Bowl again, you are going to want Worthy. But even if they don’t, he’s good enough to be worth starting for the one or two games they play.
Sam LaPorta’s follow-up to his record-breaking rookie season did not quite go as planned. However, his close to the 2024 season looked much more like the guy we saw as a rookie. On the season, LaPorta averaged a paltry 10.8 ppg. That’s not doing anyone any good. From Weeks 13-18, though, LaPorta was at 15 ppg. That’s more like it. We can leave Jared Goff out of a Lions stack because we are very likely going to have the AFC’s quarterback. But if we’re going all in on Lions, we need everyone, and that includes LaPorta.
Of the top six tight ends in ppg, all of them were on teams that missed the playoffs. The guy at No. 7 is on the Chiefs and not playing this week. We need a tight end to put in our lineup during the Wild Card Round. Mark Andrews’ usage still isn’t where it’s been in previous years. Yet, the fantasy production has been there because he keeps scoring touchdowns. From Week 6 onward, Andrews scored in all but two games. He closed the season with a touchdown reception in each of the Ravens’ final six contests. With Zay Flowers looking very doubtful for this Saturday, we should see Andrews running more routes, as Lamar Jackson will need someone other than Rashod Bateman to catch passes. Plus, the Ravens can legitimately make a run. If they do, we want Andrews for subsequent rounds.
