It’s Black Monday, and the NFL head coach firing cycle is underway.
As head coaches get fired, who will be next in line to step into those vacancies? Let’s run through the top options that might be hired by teams in need a coach this offseason.
Ranking the Best 2025 NFL Head Coaching Candidates
Honorable Mention: Drew Petzing (Arizona Cardinals OC), Vance Joseph (Denver Broncos DC), Kellen Moore (Philadelphia Eagles OC), Adam Stenavich (Green Bay Packers OC), Joe Brady (Buffalo Bills OC)
10) Kliff Kingsbury, OC, Washington Commanders
Kliff Kingsbury was known for some rigid tendencies with the Arizona Cardinals but has shown more flexibility during his first season as the Washington Commanders’ offensive coordinator.
For example, Kingsbury has varied his personnel usage. With the Cardinals, Kingsbury leaned heavily into his wide receivers. Arizona used the eighth-highest rate of 3+ WR sets (69.4%) and the highest rate of 4+ WR sets (17.1%). The 2024 Commanders rank 19th in 3+ WR sets (60.1%) and instead have the 12th-highest rate of 2+ TE sets (33.7%). They’ve only run six plays the entire season with 4+ WRs on the field.
Kingsbury has shown the ability to produce a strong offense while enabling a young dual-threat quarterback. From 2019-22, Kyler Murray ranked second among quarterbacks in rushing yards off designed runs (1,185), behind only Lamar Jackson. Murray averaged 6.0 yards per carry on these runs. In 2024, Jayden Daniels ranked third among QBs in rushing yards off designed runs behind Jackson and Anthony Richardson.
Additionally, 22.8% of Daniels’ passes have come from outside the pocket, the fourth-highest rate in 2024. The rookie thrived on those plays, averaging the second-most EPA per dropback (0.30) on passes outside the pocket behind only Jackson.
Kingsbury may need to wait at least one more year to wash away the stink from the end of his Cardinals’ head-coaching tenure, but he has undoubtedly done an outstanding job in his first season as the Commanders’ offensive coordinator.
9) Anthony Weaver, DC, Miami Dolphins
The narrative in Miami often surrounds the offense and its explosive potential, but Anthony Weaver, the defensive coordinator, has put together an impressive resume in his first season with the team.
This season, the Dolphins’ defense allowed touchdowns at the third-lowest rate, thanks in large part to the second-most efficient red zone unit in the sport. The NFL is a league of turning scoring chances into seven points and the ability to hold strong in those spots is becoming increasingly valuable (breakout teams like the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos rank better than the 80th percentile in that stat this season, as do the Super Bowl favorites in the Chiefs), thus highlighting Weaver’s ability to thrive when counted on the most.
From a more macro perspective, he has Miami ranked seventh in our all-inclusive Defense+ metric, up from 13th a season ago. Weaver spent some time in an assistant coaching role while with the Baltimore Ravens (2022-23), which helps his resume too, as it gives him some experience in a position of power that not all coordinators have.
If there’s a nit-to-pick, it’s in the aggression metrics. This season, the Dolphins rank 22nd in blitz rate and 20th when deciding to bring an extra defender into the equation. In a league that skews toward the offense, making the quarterback uncomfortable is critical and it’s something that Weaver’s unit has struggled with this year. That, however, is a very minor flaw and if insulated with the right pieces and/or coaching staff, those are the type of numbers that can flip in a hurry.
Weaver turns 45 years old in July and we’ve seen that early-to-mid 40s age be a sweet spot for head coaches when getting their first job. From Bill Belichick to John Harbaugh, we’ve seen plenty of defensive minds cut their teeth at the professional level before getting a head coaching chance in this age range and succeed – could Weaver be next?
8) Todd Monken, OC, Baltimore Ravens
Todd Monken was a collegiate quarterback, and much was expected of him when he elected to return to the professional game after spending three seasons in Georgia as their offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach. He not only lived up to the hype, he’s overachieved.
During his two seasons with the Ravens, Baltimore leads the AFC in scoring, with Lamar Jackson playing like an MVP for almost every moment. Many coaches are beholden to a system and are tempted to bend their roster to fit their system, but this season has proven that Monken is more than happy to adjust to the strengths of his specific roster.
In 2023, the Ravens ranked 11th in pass rate over expectation, opting to let Jackson decide games rather than banking on a running back without a proven bellcow. That faith earned his quarterback some hardware, and he won an NFL-high 13 games.
Last offseason, Baltimore jumped at the opportunity to add Derrick Henry, a player who is essentially an offense unto himself. Monken not only adjusted his play-calling (29th in pass rate over expectation this season), but he leveraged his new-look unit to further the development of his franchise quarterback.
We are talking about one of the best offensive minds in the sport who is still on the right side of 60 years old. Due to the direction of the NFL, a coach like this is currently valued as high as ever.
7) Pete Carroll, Free Agent
The hiring of Pete Carroll comes with a very easy data point to reference and it’s a convincing one: success.
During his peak time in Seattle (2012-20), the Seahawks (68.4%) trailed only the dynastic New England Patriots in win percentage, had four divisional titles, and, of course, went to the Super Bowl in consecutive years (winning it all in 2013). That’s not a bad run for a coach who took over a franchise that won a total of nine games in the two seasons prior to his hire (in his 14 seasons: 9.8 wins per season).
Even at the end of that peak, Carroll was getting a ton out of his players. Despite having a defensive background, he was able to put together an offense around a veteran QB that earned a ‘B’ in our Offense+ grading metric (for reference, that’s a higher mark than the Minnesota Vikings or Kansas City Chiefs produced this season).
Russell Wilson had a career season (68.8% complete and 40 touchdowns) and it showed that a Carroll team could succeed at a high level, even five years removed from that Legion of Boom era that dominated on that side of the ball.
Speaking of that Legion of Boom, the winning equity they brought to the table ranks up there with any defensive unit in the history of this game. During their peak (2012-15), the Seahawks coughed up just 1.33 points per possession, a rate that was 11.9% better than any other defense over that stretch and would have paced the league this season by over 18%.
The secondary generated the highlights and the sound bites, but this unit excelled at everything and the thought of rekindling that potential is enticing for any franchise. Carroll cut his teeth at the collegiate level on the defensive side of the ball and there is where he made his first impact on the NFL, so it stands to reason that a team could sell itself on his ability to build up that side of the ball.
Carroll’s resume on the offensive end is highlighted by the selecting and developing of Wilson while the defensive peak is stamped by one of the most dominant runs we’ve ever seen.
6) Aaron Glenn, DC, Detroit Lions
Aaron Glenn has been involved on the defensive side of the ball in a coaching capacity in the NFL for over a decade now, this coming after a 15-year career as a defensive back that saw him earn three trips to the Pro Bowl.
Glenn was a defensive backs coach with the New Orleans Saints from 2016-20, but the Detroit Lions came knocking ahead of the 2021 season in desperate need of help. That season, their defense ranked 31st or 32nd in red zone efficiency, points per drive, turnover rate, and average opponent drive distance. They lost six of seven games to close that 2020 season and were outscored 252-150 in the process (no other team allowed more than 237 points over that stretch).
Wasting no time: The #Bears have requested interviews with #Lions OC Ben Johnson and DC Aaron Glenn for their head coaching job, per sources.
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) January 6, 2025
They didn’t need help – at the end of that 5-11 campaign, they needed a culture rebrand, something the experienced Glenn brought and has sustained during his time in the Motor City:
- 2020 (before Glenn took over): 2.95 points allowed per drive
- 2021: 2.52
- 2022: 2.28
- 2023: 2.03
- 2024: 1.91
He may not have youth on his side the way the coordinator on the other side of the ball does (Ben Johnson is 38 years old while Glenn is 52), but that’s unlikely to lower his stock much in the eyes of NFL franchises. He’s not “old,” and we did just see Dan Quinn (54 years old) guide the Commanders to the playoffs after spending the previous three years as a defensive coordinator. You could argue that he was less appealing than Glenn, considering that he had already been fired as a head coach (Falcons, 2020).
5) Liam Coen, OC, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This season was Liam Coen’s first in Tampa Bay, and he immediately led one of the best offenses in the NFL. The Buccaneers are third in PFN’s Offense+ metric, a huge leap from last year’s 22nd-place ranking.
Under Coen’s coaching, Baker Mayfield has posted one of the best seasons in Buccaneers history and ranks eighth in EPA per play after ranking 14th in 2023. Mayfield and the Bucs offense have produced at elite levels despite missing Chris Godwin for the final 10 games of the regular season and Mike Evans missing three.
One key development to Mayfield’s sensational season has been his ability to avoid pressure. In 2023, Mayfield was pressured on 34% of his dropbacks and had the fifth-deepest aDOT (8.6 air yards). His tendency to hunt for big plays led to some explosive games and caused him to invite more pressure. In 2024, Mayfield is being pressured on 24% of his dropbacks, the third-lowest.
OC Liam Coen & @bakermayfield after clinching the NFC South 🥹 pic.twitter.com/ZQs4rlb86G
— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) January 5, 2025
His willingness to get the ball out of his hands earlier is a big part of that. Mayfield’s aDOT has dropped from the fifth-deepest to the seventh-shortest (6.9 air yards).
Also, rookie running back Bucky Irving has been a revelation, seizing control of Tampa Bay’s backfield and leading all rookies in scrimmage yards. Coen helped the Bucs’ rushing attack go from worst in the NFL to top-five this season.
Mayfield isn’t the only quarterback that Coen has helped develop. Although Will Levis hasn’t worked out in the NFL, he took a huge step at Kentucky in 2021 under Coen’s tutelage. After two seasons as a backup at Penn State, Levis transferred to Kentucky in 2021 and was responsible for 33 touchdowns (24 passing, nine rushing), fourth-most in the SEC that season. That season vaulted Levis into the first-round discussion. And while he ultimately ended up being a second-round pick, Levis’ 2021 season stands out as an example of quarterback development under Coen’s watch.
4) Jesse Minter, DC, Los Angeles Chargers
It’s hard to do much better than Jesse Minter’s last three seasons as defensive coordinator for the Chargers (2024) and Michigan (2022-23). The Chargers have the top-ranked scoring defense in Minter’s first season, while the Wolverines ranked first in the FBS in 2023 and seventh in 2022. The turnaround in Los Angeles has been particularly impressive.
The Chargers faltered under Brandon Staley, never ranking higher than 24th in PFN’s Defense+ metric. Now, the Chargers are fourth in Defense+ despite largely returning the same personnel from 2023’s disappointing team. Minter was also an assistant under John Harbaugh with the Ravens from 2017-20. In those seasons, Baltimore finished with a top-10 scoring defense every season.
Strong pass defenses typically generate high levels of pressure. Even if the sack total isn’t high, there is a huge correlation between pressure and successful pass defenses. And yet, the 2024 Chargers have produced an elite pass defense without even an average pass rush. Despite big names like Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack, the Chargers rank 20th in pressure rate.
Regardless, Los Angeles has managed to average the fifth-best EPA per dropback on defense. If the Chargers can ever begin to generate above-average rates of pressure, let alone elite rates, that bodes well for sustained success.
3) Brian Flores, DC, Minnesota Vikings
Flores is a schematic problem solver. Tasked with revamping a Vikings defense that was light on talent in 2023, the former Miami Dolphins head coach made it work.
He sent blitzes (49.3%) and dropped eight into coverage (20.8%) at league-high rates, per TruMedia, while guiding a defense that somehow finished 11th in DVOA.
Flores has maintained his diabolical sense of scheming this season, playing a large part in Minnesota’s standout season. Sam Darnold gets a lot of attention, and he deserves it, but this defense has played a huge role in the sustained success throughout 2024:
- Points Per Drive Allowed: 1st
- Interception Rate: 1st
- Opponent Passer Rating: 1st
- Opponent Three-and-Out Rate: 6th
In all three stops as the defensive play-caller or head coach, Flores improved the defense:
- Flores took over as the Patriots’ defensive play-caller in 2018 following the departure of Matt Patricia and saw New England jump from 27th in EPA per play to seventh.
- Flores’ Dolphins defense ranked 30th in EPA per play in his first season in 2019, but it jumped to fourth in 2020 and finished sixth in 2021.
- Flores’ Vikings defense ranked 20th in EPA per play in his first season as defensive coordinator in 2023 but ranked second in 2024.
From a Defense+ perspective, the Dolphins improved every year, going from 32nd in 2019 to eighth in 2020 and sixth in 2021. Similarly, the Vikings have gone from 23rd in Defense+ in 2023 to third in 2024.
Unlike many members of Bill Belichick’s coaching staff, Flores has shown the ability to adapt his scheme to his current surroundings. For example, the Patriots traditionally played high levels of man coverage, which Flores brought to the Dolphins. Miami played the highest level of man coverage in the NFL (50%) during Flores’ head-coaching tenure from 2019-21.
However, the Vikings have played man coverage at the fourth-lowest rate (18%) during Flores’ two seasons in Minnesota. He’s managed to turn man coverage into an effective change-up pitch without relying on it, as the Vikings average the second-highest EPA per play in man coverage since 2023.
Also, during Flores’ tenure, the Dolphins committed the seventh-fewest penalties, leading to the third-best penalty yardage differential (651 fewer penalty yards than their opponents). In addition, Miami had a roughly neutral turnover differential under Flores, but much of that was due to the putrid 2019 team. From 2020-21, the Dolphins had the ninth-best turnover differential and forced the fourth-most turnovers in the league on defense.
2) Mike Vrabel, Free Agent
On Sunday morning, NFL insider Adam Schefter identified Vrabel as “the most desirable coaching candidate” and said he’s a lock to get a head coaching job. Vrabel makes a ton of sense for New England given his ties to Kraft and the organization.
Vrabel has expressed interest in the Patriots’ job in recent weeks, according to Jeff Howe of The Athletic. Vrabel is a hot commodity that is highly sought after by several teams. He’s already interviewed with the Patriots’ division rivals, the New York Jets (although there are some rumblings that he took the interview to force New England’s hand).
Kraft would probably love to bring home the prodigal son as Vrabel played on three Super Bowl-winning teams with the Patriots during his career.
When Arthur Smith was the Titans’ offensive coordinator from 2019-20 under Vrabel, Tennessee ranked fifth in points per game and second in yards per play behind only the Kansas City Chiefs. Tennessee ranked in the top 10 in scoring offenses for both seasons, the first time since a seven-season stretch from 1987 to 1993 (when they were the Houston Oilers) that the franchise fielded consecutive top-10 PPG offenses.
In PFN’s Offense+ metric, the Titans were the No. 6 offense in 2019, then improved to No. 2 in 2020. Ryan Tannehill was graded out as one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league, finishing fifth in PFN’s QB+ metric in both seasons.
One way to measure whether a team is overachieving is to look at betting data. If a team is covering more often than other teams, that indicates it’s outperforming its public perception. From 2021-22, the Titans covered 56% of their games, the seventh-best mark in the NFL over that span. Tennessee also covered 56% of its games during the 2019 season, when it became the sixth No. 6 seed ever to make the Conference Championship round.
So, in three of Vrabel’s six seasons, the Titans significantly exceeded expectations, measured by their performance against the spread. The Titans won on the margins, particularly when it came to penalties and turnovers. During Vrabel’s tenure, Tennessee had the third-best penalty margin, committing 88 fewer penalties than their opponents from 2018-23.
1) Ben Johnson, OC, Detroit Lions
Ben Johnson can become an NFL head coach the moment he decides he wants to.
Multiple clubs — including the Panthers and Commanders, for starters — have reportedly wanted to hire Detroit’s OC over the past few offseasons. Instead, Johnson has turned down opportunities, preferring to stick and build with the Lions.
How much longer he’s willing to wait remains unclear. Johnson is just 38 years old and highly coveted thanks to his success as the offensive coordinator in Detroit. Johnson has been involved with the Lions offense since 2019, taking over the reins as the coordinator in 2022. Their stock has soared this season, but it’s been a progression, something that points to a true impact as opposed to a single strong season.
Detroit’s Offensive Touchdown Rate By Season
- 2021 (before Johnson took over): 19.7% TD rate
- 2022: 29.5% TD rate
- 2023: 30.5% TD rate
- 2024: 37.4% TD rate
The running game is as good as it gets, allowing Jared Goff to flourish (posting career highs in completion percentage, yards per pass, and touchdowns).
Reckless playcalling can occasionally inflate offensive numbers, but that isn’t the case with Johnson. The Lions don’t need to put the ball in harm’s way to access their elite offensive ceiling. Their two lowest turnover rate seasons this millennium (2022 and 2024) have come since Johnson took over, giving them a no-risk, all-reward profile.
In the four seasons before Johnson assumed OC duties, Detroit ranked 14th in turnover rate, 23rd in points per drive, and 24th in punt percentage. In Goff’s last two seasons with the Rams, Los Angeles ranked 23rd in scoring percentage and 24th in turnover rate, and it wasn’t immediately better when he first joined Detroit in 2021 (22nd in scoring percentage and turnover rate).
We live in an offensive-driven league, and Johnson’s resume speaks for itself – at a young age, he’s proven capable of elevating the pieces around him in a significant way, something every team in the NFL finds appealing.