The Denver Broncos continue to lead the way in the season-long rankings but have seen their lead narrowed after back-to-back clunkers against the Los Angeles Chargers and Cincinnati Bengals. Their grade in Week 17 was 69.6 (D+), its third-worst in a game all season. That’s virtually identical to its grade the previous week vs. the Chargers (69.6), which technically ranks as their second-worst game due to rounding. The Broncos posted one D-level grade in their first 14 games but have now done so in back-to-back weeks, even with starting cornerback Riley Moss returning for Week 17. The Broncos’ extremely stingy pass defense has let them down the last two weeks, with a 38.9% pass defense success rate ranking last in the NFL over that span. Even with this horrendous fortnight, Denver still ranks fifth in pass defense success rate for the season.
The Philadelphia Eagles are narrowing the gap with the Broncos for the top spot in these rankings after Denver held a significant lead for much of the season. However, the Eagles may not pass them if they rest some of their best defensive players in the finale vs. the New York Giants with the No. 2 seed locked up. the Eagles can enter the postseason feeling good after throttling an undermanned Dallas Cowboys offense in Week 17. Philly has an extremely favorable combination of excelling against the pass without allowing big runs, either. Entering the last week, the Eagles rank first in both pass defense success rate (59.6%) and EPA per rush allowed (0.17). Philadelphia has allowed the fewest yards per play for any defense this season (4.8). Effective and disciplined rushing attacks can theoretically control the clock with successful runs against the Eagles, who do rank outside the top 10 in rushing success rate.
Week 17’s win over the Green Bay Packers comes out as the second-worst grade for the Minnesota Vikings this season. In terms of low points, their 68.0 (D) grade was surpassed only by the 66.3 grade they posted back in Week 8 vs. the Los Angeles Rams. Minnesota received significant attention for its increased man coverage in the win. The Vikings played man coverage on 36.8% of dropbacks in Week 17, their second-highest rate in a game all season (behind the Week 13 Arizona Cardinals game) and nearly six times the rate they played against the Packers in their Week 4 meeting (6.8%). They play man coverage at the fourth-lowest rate this season (16.9%). Minnesota ranks first in EPA per dropback (0.19) on the rare occasions it does play man coverage this season.
Chargers stifled the hapless New England Patriots on Saturday to make their way back into the top five entering Week 18. The Chargers posted their third-best grade of the season, an 84.5 (B) performance. It was LA’s best performance since Week 8, when they faced the New Orleans Saints’ backup quarterbacks. While the dominant win to clinch a playoff berth was reassuring, it’s tough to read much into a game against the Patriots. Los Angeles’ declining pass defense was a concern — between Weeks 10-16, the Chargers ranked 25th in pass defense success rate (52.8%), with the likes of the Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers slicing them up. the Chargers rank sixth in that category for the entire season and have paired that with a run defense that doesn’t allow many explosive gains (ninth in EPA per rush allowed).
The Seattle Seahawks defense nearly peaked in holding the Chicago Bears to just three points last Thursday night. The Seahawks posted a 90.5 (A-) grade, the best by any team in Week 17 and the defense’s second-best performance of the season. They had a 92.2 back in Week 3 against the Miami Dolphins, also the highest grade that week. The Seahawks are up to the third-highest non-blitz pressure rate (36.4%) this season, allowing the defense to thrive despite a relative lack of takeaways.
The Cleveland Browns were a borderline top-10 unit in Week 17 but still delivered their seventh-lowest grade of the season (77.4, C+) in their home finale against the Dolphins. Four of the defense’s seven worst games have come since the team returned from bye in Week 11. Cleveland’s defense has done a tremendous job of generating pressure, recording the highest non-blitz pressure rate this season (39.7%). Myles Garrett made history in Week 17 by becoming the first player to record four consecutive 14+ sack seasons, though 2024 could actually be the first season that he leads the NFL in sacks. Garrett enters the final week tied with Trey Hendrickson of the Cincinnati Bengals at 14.0 sacks a piece.
The Dolphins crack the top 10 after a season-best 86.8 (B) grade against the woeful Browns offense. The defense has feasted on poor offenses this season, recording another top-five weekly finish after doing so in both games vs. the Patriots as well. The Dolphins had the best EPA per dropback of any defense in Week 17 and are up to eighth in that category on the year. Miami has made up for it with the second-best red-zone defense (46% TD rate allowed) and fifth-best third-down defense (35.5% conversion rate allowed).
Houston Texans recorded a season-worst 63.5 (D) grade, it’s first grade below 70 in any game this season. It’s the Texans’ second-worst game in two seasons under DeMeco Ryans, behind Week 2 of last season against the Indianapolis Colts (a 31-20 loss). They recorded their lowest pass defense success rate of the season (45.0%) AND its lowest run defense success rate this year (40.5%). Their overall success rate was 43.8%, which ranks 503rd out of 512 games played this season. Houston has the lowest Offense+ grade of any team in the playoff field, putting the burden on this unit to carry the team to a win against any meaningful competition.
The Chiefs had their third-best grade of the season, recording an 81.7 (B-) grade in the Christmas Day romp over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Four of this unit’s seven best performances have come since Week 13, vaulting Steve Spagnuolo’s group back into the top 10. Kansas City posted its third-best non-blitz pressure rate (37.2%) of the season vs. Houston a week after posting their sixth-best vs. Pittsburgh. Since the Bills loss in Week 11, the Chiefs have the fourth-highest non-blitz pressure rate (36.2%), a big leap after ranking 16th in that category (31.6%) from Weeks 1-10. Kansas City still blitzes at the seventh-highest rate this season (30.8%) and fares well when doing so. The Chiefs have the seventh-best EPA per dropback (0.07) when sending extra pass rushers this season.
Thanks to a disastrous start in the team’s Week 17 Monday night contest at the San Francisco 49ers, the Lions posted a 60.2 (D-) grade, their worst over the past two seasons. Detroit had the second-worst EPA-per-play average in the first half of any defense in Week 17 (-0.56) but improved to a more reasonable (but still woeful) -0.15 in the second half. Monday night saw Detroit record a 29.5% pass defense success rate. That’s the second-lowest by any team in a game this year, with the Lions being on the other end of the worst game (Jacksonville Jaguars had a 24.3% pass defense success rate in Week 11 when the Lions scored 52 points).
