After four seasons with Ezekiel Elliott holding the RB1 title with the Dallas Cowboys, Tony Pollard is now the guy in Big D, a favorable fantasy football role he earned last season by way of his first 1,000-yard campaign on the ground while also averaging a career-best 9.5 yards per catch and scoring 12 times (10 career scores prior).
Expectations are understandably high for the 26-year-old behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, but there is more to projecting his 2023 season than simply combining his numbers last season with those produced by Zeke.
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Tony Pollard’s Fantasy Outlook
Pollard has been nothing short of special in the opportunities he has gotten with the Cowboys. Since he entered the league in 2019, 38 running backs have recorded at least 400 carries, and here is how Pollard ranks:
- Yards per carry — 5.1 (third)
- Yards per carry after contact — 3.8 (second)
- Half-PPR points per touch — 0.88 (fourth)
Woah. In 2022, he gave fantasy managers nearly 1,400 yards and 12 touchdowns … not bad considering the Cowboys gave Zeke nine more red-zone touches than Pollard and held him under 10 carries on six different occasions.
It would seem that it is all systems go for 2023, and if that is going to be the case, we need to get the nickname situation figured out. What is Pollard’s nickname? What is the nickname of those who are willing to rank Pollard as RB6 or higher? I need these answers, so fire them away at me on Twitter!
What Is Pollard’s Upside In 2023?
I mentioned those combined numbers, so let’s start there. Dallas’ duo racked up 2,346 yards and 17 touchdowns last season. That is essentially 2003 LaDainian Tomlinson … and probably not realistic to think Pollard absorbs all of those numbers, even if the competition for work behind him is rather limited. But it’s fun to dream, right?
OK, so his upside isn’t that, but I do think he has a Tier 1 running back season in his obtainable range of outcomes. He checks every box as a runner — don’t think I need to sell you on that — so it is his pass-catching production that could unlock a special season.
In order for that hope to become a reality, the Cowboys will have to adjust their play-calling a bit as they ranked among the bottom 10 in running back routes, targets, and receptions, but some of that will come with having an explosive runner on the field more consistently.
MORE: 2023 Fantasy Football Player Projections
Consider this: Pollard had 75 of his 51 career air yards last season.
That is not a typo.
Promise.
After three seasons of limiting him to traditional running back routes, Dallas explored Pollard’s versatility (third at the position in aDOT), and he rewarded them with a position-best 9.5 yards per catch.
Pollard’s extended role on the ground should give him the type of floor we all want out of our RB1, but the story of how he is used in the passing game is likely what will dictate how my optimism on him looks come January.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Pollard at His ADP?
YEP! With a late-second round ADP, the risk in investing in Pollard isn’t too high, and there is room for profit. He plays in an offense with a strong scoring expectation and the same quarterback as last season, two things that not only make an optimistic projection possible but give him the edge over RBs in this general range.
Derrick Henry and Rhamondre Stevenson play for underwhelming offenses, while I maintain my thought that the top tier of quarterback has me priced out. I have five receivers in my top tier (Justin Jefferson down to Stefon Diggs/Tyreek Hill, depending on how you rank them), and I’ve been pairing Pollard with one of them in the majority of my early drafts.