After bidding farewell to longtime starting running back Derrick Henry, the Tennessee Titans appeared set to move forward with Tyjae Spears as their starting running back. That all changed when the team signed Dallas Cowboys RB Tony Pollard. Let’s examine the fantasy football ramifications of Pollard joining the Titans.
What Is the Fantasy Impact of Tony Pollard Signing With the Tennessee Titans?
The Cowboys and Pollard failed to reach an extension prior to the 2023 season. That resulted in Pollard playing out the year on the franchise tag and hitting free agency. It didn’t take long for Pollard to find a new home.
According to Adam Schefter, the Titans gave Pollard a three-year deal worth up to $24 million. This is identical to what the Chicago Bears gave D’Andre Swift (although I’m sure some of the specifics, including guaranteed money, are different).
Pollard and Tyjae Spears Are Similar Players
It’s always risky to read too much into contracts, but this deal certainly suggests Pollard will be the starter in Tennessee.
During his time alongside Ezekiel Elliott in Dallas, Pollard was one of the most efficient backs in the league. That led to calls from Cowboys fans and fantasy managers to let Pollard start over Zeke. Well, we saw that in 2023, and it wasn’t great.
Pollard’s efficiency cratered last season, averaging a career-worst 4.0 yards per carry. His 13.1 fantasy points per game was a 2.5 points-per-game drop from the previous year.
Now, Pollard will return to being part of a committee. Tyjae Spears should see a larger opportunity share than last season, but I would bet on Pollard to be the “60” in a 60/40 split.
This is a very tricky situation for fantasy. It makes sense for the Titans not to want to go into the season with Spears projected for a three-down workload. However, it would’ve made far more sense for the Titans to sign or draft a running back with a different skill set.
Pollard and Spears are very similar players. Both operate best in the satellite back-plus role. We saw what Pollard looks like in an early-down/between-the-tackles role last season. That’s not his forte.
Receiving work is crucial to fantasy production. Both Pollard and Spears are very good pass-catchers. We want the guy catching passes. But who will it be?
The most important factor in fantasy value for running backs is touchdowns. For years, Zeke was the goal line back in Dallas — not Pollard. Last season, Pollard was one of the least efficient backs at the goal line. But Spears is about 10 pounds lighter than Pollard and doesn’t profile for that role, either.
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Fantasy managers are going to have a tough time navigating this backfield. Sifting through training camp reports and information from beat reporters is going to be key.
If we can’t pinpoint what role each will play, that will likely depress the cost in fantasy drafts for both. Depending on where they end up, both could be values.
There’s a chance this ends up being a 2022 Leonard Fournette/Rachaad White situation. In other words, both backs do it all…when it’s their turn.
In 2022, once White emerged as a viable option for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, he and Fournette essentially split the backfield. White took one drive, Fournette the next. Both operated on all three downs during their drive, with neither designated specifically as the passing down back or goal line back.
Given what Pollard and Spears both do well, we could see a version of this in Tennessee in 2024. I don’t think it will be a true 50/50 split. But it wouldn’t be the least bit surprising if Pollard and Spears swapped in and out for no other reason than to keep the other guy fresh. For now, I’m viewing Pollard as a low RB2 and Spears as an RB3.
The Dallas Cowboys Will Need To Sign a Running Back
Sure, the Cowboys may look to the NFL Draft to replace Pollard. However, the 2024 running back class is considered the weakest in at least a decade. It is exceedingly likely the Cowboys’ next starting running back is out there in free agency right now.
Given the lack of depth in the Cowboys’ backfield, whoever they sign is going to be in for a pretty substantial workload.
READ MORE: D’Andre Swift Signs: Fantasy Impact of the Chicago Bears Acquiring Fifth-Year RB
Rico Dowdle impressed coaches last season. He will have a role. But whether it’s Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, or someone else, whichever running back ends up in Dallas is about to see an increase in fantasy value. As soon as that player lands, we’ll be here to assess the fantasy fallout.