Tennessee Titans RB Tony Pollard failed to thrive in a lead role last season with the Dallas Cowboys and now steps into what figures to be a committee with Tyjae Spears. How should fantasy football managers approach this situation and, at cost, could one of these running backs be a difference-maker?
Tony Pollard’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 182 (143 non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 780
- Rushing TDs: 5
- Receptions: 39
- Receiving Yards: 298
- Receiving TDs: 1
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 16. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Pollard This Year?
Much like life, sometimes you know what you want, and sometimes you don’t know enough to know what you want.
Tony Pollard 😍😍😍😍😍 pic.twitter.com/mVoTFojzVo
— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) January 17, 2023
We thought “more work” was what we wanted for Pollard (your humble narrator being one of the leaders of that pack), but it turns out that’s not what we wanted at all.
After four seasons of producing 18.4% above expected fantasy expectations, Pollard was finally featured, and … well, he crashed and burned. His production was meme-worthy last season and came in 16.4% below expectation, landing him back in a committee situation.
Was that a blip on the radar or confirmation that how Pollard was used early in his career was optimal?
By moving on from Derrick Henry and adding Calvin Ridley, the Titans are telling us that they want to bet on Will Levis and see if he can be their signal-caller of the future. For the sake of this backfield, that carries some significant risk.
Should Levis hit, Tennessee’s offense could move up from their 22nd ranking in red-zone trips and provide Pollard with some of the upside we assigned him last summer (I thought he deserved first-round consideration!).
That hope is gone, but as a player who has caught 77.2% of his career targets for an impressive 7.5 yards per reception, Pollard’s skill set (along with Spears’) fits nicely with the changes that seem to be taking place in Tennessee, especially should DeAndre Hopkins not be at full strength.
The ability to catch upwards of three passes per game would elevate Pollard’s value to a point where there is little downside at his ADP. He just needs to regain some of the rushing form that we saw in his first four seasons.
Here’s a comprehensive list of the running backs (minimum 100 carries) who cashed in on a lower percentage of their expected PPR points last season than Pollard in 2023:
- Josh Jacobs: New team (plenty of concerns on my part)
- Javonte Williams: Off of an ACL tear
- Austin Ekeler: New team (shifted to a committee at best)
- Joshua Kelley: Never labeled a starter
- AJ Dillon: Never labeled a starter
- Alexander Mattison: Waived and now a backup
- Dameon Pierce: Lost his role
- Jamaal Williams: Only once viewed as a starter
- Miles Sanders: Lost his (expensive) role
That’s not exactly an encouraging list to be a part of and helps justify Pollard’s current ADP. The fact of the matter is that this is a backfield in flux at the moment, and at a limited cost, investing makes plenty of sense.
- Week 13 at Washington
- Week 14 vs. Jacksonville
- Week 15 vs. Cincinnati
- Week 16 at Indianapolis
- Week 17 at Jacksonville
If either Spears or Pollard assumes control of the backfield and if Tennessee’s bet on Levis pans out to make this even an average offense, this team will have a running back who helps swing fantasy leagues.
I’m willing to forgive and forget Pollard’s 2023. Tennessee had Spears in the building last season and could have fully committed to him after Henry’s departure but instead opted to sign up for three seasons of Pollard.
If you’re not, Spears needs to be circled on your cheat sheet. I’m making a point of it to get at least one of these backs at cost whenever possible, and double dipping isn’t out of the question in the right roster construction.
