Dallas Cowboys running back Tony Pollard truly broke out last season, firmly establishing himself as one of the best running backs in the NFL. With Ezekiel Elliott gone, can Pollard be an RB1 once again? What is Pollard’s fantasy football projection for 2023?
Get a trade offer in your dynasty or redraft league? Not sure who to start or sit this week? Leverage PFN’s FREE fantasy tools — the Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer and Calculator and Start/Sit Optimizer! Put the finishing touch on your A+ draft with 1 of our 425+ fantasy football team names.
Tony Pollard’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Fantasy managers have been salivating at the notion of a Pollard-centric Cowboys backfield since he posted that 31.2-point game in Week 15 of the 2020 season. That was the point at which it was abundantly clear Pollard was a vastly superior player to Elliott.
Unfortunately, the Cowboys continued to push the plodding Elliott ahead of Pollard for all of 2021, resulting in a middling RB3 season where Pollard averaged 10.8 PPR fantasy points per game. In 2022, though, things finally changed.
Pollard was outplaying Zeke so significantly that the Cowboys had no choice but to make this a split backfield. Even with just a 31.5% snap share, Pollard was able to average 15.6 ppg, finishing as the overall RB8.
It’s a testament to Pollard’s incredible efficiency that he was able to produce stellar fantasy numbers on such limited playing time.
While Pollard’s playing time remained low, what we care more about is how often he touches the ball. If a player is playing a ton of snaps but never touching the ball, who cares? We’d rather have someone like Pollard, who doesn’t see a high snap share but gets the ball when he is on the field.
Pollard posted strong numbers in a few efficiency metrics. His evaded-tackles-per-touch rate was inside the top 20. He averaged 3.16 yards created per touch, which was inside the top 10. Pollard’s 3.7 yards after contact led all running backs with at least 100 carries.
It makes his 5.2 yards per carry all the more impressive, as the Cowboys’ traditionally strong offensive line only gave him 1.5 yards before contact, the fifth-fewest among running backs with at least 100 carries.
Pollard is also fantastic in the passing game. Last season, his 1.8 yards per route run trailed only Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler among running backs with at least 40 targets.
Should You Draft Tony Pollard This Year?
When it comes to draft strategy, we are going to see a shift this year to wide receivers going early. We last saw this in 2016 when five of the first seven picks were WRs. But the most valuable asset in fantasy football remains the elite running back. Could that be Pollard?
As great as Pollard was last season, he will need to be even better this year to justify his RB9, No. 20 overall ADP.
We know that an increase in volume often leads to a decrease in efficiency. But that’s OK. Pollard is good enough that his efficiency shouldn’t drop too much, and he has a ton of room for growth in volume.
The Cowboys are a top scoring offense every year with Dak Prescott. They were No. 1 in 2019 and 2021. It is a bit concerning that they jettisoned offensive coordinator Kellen Moore in favor of Brian Schottenheimer.
However, the move to a potentially more run-heavy offense isn’t going to hurt Pollard. He’ll be the one getting more carries.
Pollard has a three-down skill set, but he will never be a true bell cow. That’s OK, though. Remember, he played just 31% of the snaps last season. Barring injury, that number will be over 50% this year.
The Cowboys only have Rico Dowdle, 2022 UDFA Malik Davis, roster depth Ronald Jones, and rookie sixth-rounder Deuce Vaughn behind Pollard. There will be enough volume for Pollard to produce RB1 numbers.
He also projects to be the primary goal-line back. Pollard scored 12 touchdowns last season despite just six goal-line carries. Dare I say another 12 is possible?
Pollard is currently my RB5, well above ADP. Fantasy managers should have no concerns over making Pollard their first running back drafted or using a second-round pick on him. He’s capable of building upon his 2022 season and averaging 18+ ppg this year. Consider Pollard a strong RB1.