One of the better backups in the NFL and fantasy football, Dallas Cowboys RB Tony Pollard projects to be an intriguing pick as his 2022 outlook suggests he could potentially see additional touches this season. With the NFL season and fantasy drafts closing in, what is Pollard’s fantasy outlook in 2022, and could he prove to be a value at his current ADP in fantasy football drafts?
Tony Pollard’s fantasy outlook for 2022
Perhaps this will be the season where Pollard surpasses his running mate as many fantasy managers hope. Pollard has plenty of momentum coming off a career-high in rushing attempts (130) and targets (46). Pollard was one of the most efficient running backs in the NFL, averaging 5.5 yards per carry and 6.2 yards per touch.
Amongst RBs with at least 100 carries, Pollard showed his power and elusiveness, finishing fourth in yards after contact per attempt (3.6), behind only Rashaad Penny, Nick Chubb, and Jonathan Taylor. For someone who’s only seen 33% of the offensive snaps the last two seasons, Pollard has looked like the best running back Dallas has when given the opportunity.
Pollard is unquestionably talented enough to be the starting RB of the Cowboys. But it doesn’t matter what I or anyone else thinks. The only opinion that matters are the ones inside The Star down in DFW. And right now, this is still Ezekiel Elliott’s backfield.
Ezekiel Elliott is the Cowboys’ lead back regardless of Tony Pollard’s efficiency
When/if Elliott misses time, Pollard is a must-start for fantasy. But in the 30 active games where both are available (2020-2021), Pollard averages 7.5 carries, 2.53 targets, 51.24 yards, and 8.12 PPR/game. Elliott, on the other hand, averages 15.1 rushes, 4.5 targets, 81.26 yards, and 15.76 PPR/game.
When the Cowboys are in close, they turn to Elliott and feed him. Last season alone, Elliott saw 68% of the snaps inside the red zone (compared to Pollard at 26%) and was 17th in the league in carries at 35. Pollard had just 15 and only two inside the 5-yard line to Elliott’s 12.
This is what limits Pollard’s upside. It has nothing to do with talent, just opportunities. The RB30 in points per game last season, Pollard has standalone value in 2022 and should be drafted in every league. Not just by the Elliott managers looking for a handcuff either. If anything were to happen to Elliott, Pollard has league-winning upside. Until then, he’s a mid-RB3 for fantasy football in 2022.
How the Cowboys’ depth chart impacts Pollard’s fantasy projection for the season
Dallas should be one of the league’s better offenses in 2022. That’s nothing new. If anything, especially for Cowboys fans, it’s the expectation. However, they will look a bit different this season.
Amari Cooper is no longer on the team after an offseason trade sent him to the Cleveland Browns. Also gone is Cedrick Wilson Jr. after he signed with the Miami Dolphins in free agency. This leaves CeeDee Lamb as the unquestioned top target for Dak Prescott. We know Lamb has the talent to take advantage of this role and carries top-five upside into 2022.
Joining Lamb is former Pittsburgh Steeler James Washington and Jalen Tolbert, a third-round pick out of South Alabama. An unfortunate Jones fracture will keep Washington out of the lineup for quite some time, leaving Tolbert in a prime spot to be a breakout sleeper to target.
Beyond the receivers, TE Dalton Schultz will play a key role in 2022, especially inside the red zone. Until the WR room is sorted, I wouldn’t be shocked if Schultz was No. 2 in targets behind Lamb for a decent chunk of the season.
I also expect to see Pollard in the mix for targets as he’s more than comfortable with the ball coming his way. It also gives Dallas the opportunity to have both Elliott and Pollard on the field at the same time. In PPR formats, both players will see a boost.
Pollard’s ADP for 2022
Pollard has an ADP of RB31 and 84 overall in PPR formats, placing him at the end of the very end of the seventh round in 12-team fantasy leagues.
In PFN’s 2022 fantasy football redraft rankings, Pollard is noticeably higher as the RB29 as the 61st overall ranked player. PFN’s consensus ranking of Pollard is nearly identical to where I have him (RB31 and 73 overall).
In 2022, Pollard has standalone value as a reliable RB3 for fantasy. Given the reports of potential extra passing volume, it only helps to raise both his floor and ceiling. Nevertheless, he is capped by Elliott. But anytime Elliott is out, Pollard is likely to be inside the top 12 depending on the matchup.
Pollard fits basically every draft strategy from a robust RB build to a Hero or Zero RB build. Whether as a player to start, a Flex option, or just a bench player, Pollard has a rare mid-round blend of stability and league-winning upside. If the draft doesn’t fall right in the early rounds at RB, keep Pollard stashed in your queue as an ace up the sleeve when the time is right.