The 2023 season was supposed to be the one where Tony Pollard dynasty fantasy football managers thrived. With Ezekiel Elliott out of town and the backfield all Pollard’s, the hope was that the once-uber-efficient RB would ascend to elite status and prove to be a league winner.
To say he fell short of expectations would be an understatement. He’s no longer on the first-round redraft radar like he was in August — how far should he fall in the rankings as we prepare for 2024 and he takes his talents to the Tennessee Titans?
Tony Pollard’s Dynasty Outlook
In the case of Pollard, there are two very distinct, very different ways of approaching how he is valued both in 2024 redraft leagues and in dynasty.
- Option A: Pollard isn’t good and missed his chance at a huge season!
- Option B: I trust the role and am back in for 2024!
Both options are reasonable after a 2023 season that was as confusing as it was underwhelming.
Pollard will open the 2024 season as a 27-year-old back with under 1,000 touches on his NFL resume and 4.8 yards per carry for his career. To me, that sounds like a bell cow, but that role might not be there for him with the Titans, given that the team spent third-round draft capital on Tyjae Spears just a season ago.
Of course, Derrick Henry still cleared 300 touches in this offense last season, and the Titans thought enough of Pollard to outbid the field for his services. It’s fair to question his role, as we simply don’t know the direction this Titans offense is headed as they attempt to develop Will Levis, though I think we can assume that he loses role stability with this move.
As for his RB23 finish in 2023, it was disheartening on every level. His touch count increased by 75 from 2022, but the spike in usage resulted in 62 fewer scrimmage yards and six fewer scores. How did it happen?
Below is a snapshot of expected fantasy points per carry over the past five seasons from running backs at certain points on the field and what Pollard gave us in 2023.
- Inside the 5-yard line: 2.73 fantasy points per carry
- Pollard: 1.48 (45.8% below expectation)
- 5-9 yard line: 1.04 fantasy points per carry
- Pollard: 0.99 (4.8% below expectation)
- 10-14 yard line: 0.76 fantasy points per carry
- Pollard: 0.42 (44.7% below expectation)
- 15-19 yard line: 0.57 fantasy points per carry
- Pollard: 0.37 (35.1% below expectation)
- 20-24 yard line: 0.52 fantasy points per carry
- Pollard: 0.75 (44.2% above expectation)
- 25-49 yard line: 0.48 fantasy points per carry
- Pollard: 0.55 (14.6% above expectation)
On carries inside the 15-yard line, Pollard delivered 30.5% fantasy points below expectation. He was given the chance to succeed and couldn’t do it at even a league-average rate, let alone with the above-average production that we had him penciled in for entering the season.
Your ranking of him moving forward hinges on whether you think this is who he is or if this was an outlier season that creates a unique buying opportunity, not to mention your faith in the Titans as a whole to put him in a position to (hopefully) improve upon those dreadful conversion rates.
Pollard’s Dynasty Ranking
Where does Pollard sit in the dynasty RB landscape after changing teams? Here are PFN’s latest dynasty rankings, showing where Pollard falls in comparison to other top names at the position.
1) Bijan Robinson | Atlanta Falcons
2) Breece Hall | New York Jets
3) Christian McCaffrey | San Francisco 49ers
4) Jahmyr Gibbs | Detroit Lions
5) Jonathan Taylor | Indianapolis Colts
6) Saquon Barkley | Philadelphia Eagles
7) Travis Etienne Jr. | Jacksonville Jaguars
8) De’Von Achane | Miami Dolphins
9) Kyren Williams | Los Angeles Rams
10) James Cook | Buffalo Bills
11) Kenneth Walker III | Seattle Seahawks
12) Isiah Pacheco | Kansas City Chiefs
13) Josh Jacobs | Green Bay Packers
14) Rachaad White | Tampa Bay Buccaneers
15) Javonte Williams | Denver Broncos
16) Alvin Kamara | New Orleans Saints
17) D’Andre Swift | Chicago Bears
18) Rhamondre Stevenson | New England Patriots
19) Tony Pollard | Tennessee Titans
20) Derrick Henry | Baltimore Ravens
21) Brian Robinson Jr. | Washington Commanders
22) David Montgomery | Detroit Lions
23) Aaron Jones | Minnesota Vikings
24) Najee Harris | Pittsburgh Steelers
25) Joe Mixon | Houston Texans
Should You Trade Pollard in Dynasty?
Are you considering trading Pollard in Dynasty? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer makes it easy to find the best trade offer to make in seconds!
As poor as the overall production was in 2023 based on expectations, there were some good signs. Pollard caught 82.1% of his targets and, in his first full season as “the guy,” he held up just fine by appearing in every game and, including the playoffs, averaging 19.3 touches per game to close out the season.
Furthermore, I can’t just write off his 2022 season as a fluke. Yes, he was playing Robin to Ezekiel Elliott’s Batman, but the basic stats he put up were in rare air.
- 1.40 yards per carry before contact
- 3.82 yards per carry after contact
MORE: PFN’s Fantasy Football News Tracker
Over the past decade, that was one of four instances in which a running back averaged at least 1.30 yards per carry before contact and 3.70 yards per carry after contact on at least 175 carries. The others on that list …
- 2020 Derrick Henry (interesting!)
- 2020 Nick Chubb
- 2021 Jonathan Taylor
I don’t mind considering Pollard as a suitable RB2. The Titans showed some of their hand in signing him, a move that isn’t made without a specific plan. With Tennessee, both his and Spears see their values decline, but I am still reasonably interested in both when building out a dynasty roster.
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