With the NFL playoffs right around the corner, it’s time to dive into these 14 teams from a fantasy football perspective. For those playing in playoff fantasy leagues, let’s take a look at team backfields and how to approach them in various playoff fantasy formats. What is the playoff fantasy value of Dallas Cowboys running backs Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott?
Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott’s Fantasy Value
Pollard’s season was truly remarkable when you consider his limited usage and productivity over the first six weeks. At that point, Pollard was averaging an unusable 9.7 PPR fantasy points per game. He finished the season as the overall RB6.
Just how good was Pollard after his lackluster start? From Weeks 7-17, he averaged 21 ppg. The only two running backs you would rather have had over that span were Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler.
For the first time in their careers, the Cowboys finally reduced Elliott’s snap share. He was consistently over 60% during the first six weeks of the season. But outside of Week 17 — when Pollard didn’t play — Zeke never topped 51% the rest of the way.
Elliott finished the season as the RB19, averaging 13.2 ppg. It was, by far, the worst season of Elliott’s career and continued a five-year run of his ppg average declining each successive year.
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Heading into the postseason, those playing fantasy playoff leagues undoubtedly want Pollard over Elliott.
The Eagles’ win over the Giants secured the NFC East and No. 1 overall seed. So, despite having a massively superior record, the Cowboys will travel to Tampa Bay to open the playoffs.
If you are playing in a full-length playoff format where you can choose whoever you want to be on your roster, the only option is to take both Cowboys backs or neither.
The theory behind this is quite simple: Do you think Dallas can go on a run? If so, load up your roster with Cowboys, including Pollard and Elliott. If you think Dallas will be the “same old Cowboys” and lose this game that they should clearly win, neither back is the type of player you want to put on your roster for one game.
Fantasy Outlook for Pollard and Elliott in Wild Card Weekend
For those of you playing DFS or in a one-and-done playoff formats, things get much more interesting. While the matchup isn’t great against a Bucs defense allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points to running backs, the game environment does suggest a potentially high-scoring contest.
If you think the Bucs are winning this game, it’s now or never to use one of the Cowboys’ backs. Under no circumstances can I really justify Elliott. He’s just too inefficient, averaging a career-worst 3.9 yards per carry. And he’s a complete zero in the passing game with a career-low 4.8% target share. For Elliott to be worth using, he would have to score twice.
Pollard, on the other hand, is an intriguing option. In one-and-done formats, you want good players on losing teams. That very well could be Pollard.
Both backs were completely nonviable when these teams met back in Week 1. Pollard scored 4.2 points, while Elliott scored 5.9. However, that was a very long time ago. We’ve since learned the Cowboys are a lot better than we thought…and the Bucs are much worse.
Given Pollard’s performance over the latter two-thirds of the season, he makes for an intriguing contrarian option. His 11.6% target share gives him a much higher floor. He’s also far more likely to break off a splash play, as evidenced by his running for 15+ yards on 9.1% of his carries, the fourth-best rate in the league.
Ultimately, with there being 12 teams playing on Wild Card Weekend, and six of them guaranteed to lose, I would lean toward not using Pollard or Elliott in any fantasy format this weekend.
If you’re taking a shot on a Cowboys’ run in a full-length playoff format, then sure, put them on your roster, but you don’t need to necessarily start them. But if you’re looking for a strong RB play on a team likely to lose, there are backs with better matchups and situations on teams more likely to lose than the Cowboys.