For three seasons, Tony Pollard has been one of fantasy’s top RB handcuffs. It’s also clear that he could be so much more if given the opportunity. How should fantasy football managers — including dynasty managers — value him in 2022 and beyond?
Tony Pollard’s dynasty profile for 2022
The Cowboys selected Pollard in the fourth round in the 2019 NFL Draft to complement the seemingly unstoppable Ezekiel Elliott. Zeke was only 23 years old and had just followed up a 2,001-scrimmage-yard campaign in 2018 with a 1,777-yard, 14-touchdown effort. Simply put, Pollard posed no threat to Dallas’ long-term bell cow.
But things move quickly in the NFL. After only a year-and-a-half in the league, Pollard had made waves as a versatile back with high-end rushing and pass-catching abilities. He showed off these skills in college running behind Darrell Henderson. And in his first career start in Week 15 of 2020, at the dawn of Elliott’s struggles, Pollard showed Cowboy fans and fantasy managers what they’d been missing, as he compiled a 12-69-2 rushing line and 6-63-0 receiving line.
Pollard had more PPR fantasy points that week (31.2) than Zeke had at any other time that season. In fact, Elliott hasn’t exceeded that mark since 2018. Yet Pollard did it on his first try.
The perennial backup’s role has continued expanding: 101 touches as a rookie, 129 the following season, and 169 last year. His 5.1 yards per carry is among the league’s highest among active backs. And his elite-level receiving chops translated into a 39-337-0 receiving line on a dominant 85% catch rate in 2021.
Investing in him in 2022 and beyond means investing in someone with a wide variance of outcomes, ranging from an RB3/4 as Zeke’s backup to an RB1 as a bell cow. The latter scenario hinges on his and his backfield mate’s futures in Dallas. Assuming he remains healthy, Pollard will start somewhere beginning in 2024, and perhaps as soon as 2023. Dynasty managers are encouraged to invest in him now, assuming a sizable payoff later.
Fantasy projection for Pollard
About six weeks ago, my fantasy analysts and I independently assembled initial dynasty fantasy rankings for 2022. Interestingly, we all had the same impression of Pollard: Jason Katz and I ranked him as the RB27, one spot ahead of Elliott, while Tommy Garrett placed him at No. 29.
Our collective rankings assumed Pollard would be a lead back during his prime years. The questions concern how long he’ll have to wait and how dynamic his offense will be. Here are the major issues to consider.
Will Pollard have standalone fantasy value in 2022?
As with all RB handcuffs — including glorified handcuffs like Pollard — the backup’s fantasy ceiling will remain relatively low unless Zeke gets hurt or benched. Notably, both backs ran better last year in the second half in terms of yards per carry. But Elliott’s split was 4.1 in the first half vs. 4.4 in the first. Pollard’s was 4.9 in the first half vs. (are you ready for this?) 6.6 in the second half. In fact, Pollard’s half splits the season before were even crazier: 2.7 in the first vs. 5.5 in the second.
I’m bringing this up because in 2021, inexplicably, only 42% of Pollard’s touches came in the second half. As a change-of-pace back against worn-down defenses, he produced elite numbers. Yet the Cowboys gave him 39% fewer second-half touches than the considerably slower and less agile Zeke.
That should change at least somewhat in 2022. We can envision a scenario where Pollard’s usage grows from 11.2 touches per game in 2021 to at least 12, and possibly even 13. While this sounds minor on a micro level, we’re talking about a roughly 8-16% usage bump. A 12% increase in touches last season at the same production rate would have given him 18.8 more fantasy points, pushing him to within earshot of high-end RB3 production.
Longer-term, Pollard offers RB1 upside. For 2022, he should be a consistent streamer in deeper leagues, with a shot at RB2+ production in the fantasy playoffs if he starts pushing for equal time.
How to assess Pollard’s contract situation
Pollard’s rookie contract ends after the 2022 season. If Dallas lets him walk, he’ll probably earn starter’s money and begin the 2023 campaign as a team’s bell cow — or at the very least, a 225+ touch, 1A RB.
If Dallas decides Elliott’s salary and abilities no longer align (and truthfully, they don’t, but most people already know that), then we could see a scenario where the Cowboys go all-in on retaining Pollard while either cutting Zeke (and incurring some financial pain) or trading him. It might be very hard to find a trading partner for Elliott unless he’s reborn in 2022 as the “Zeke of old” (rather than “old Zeke”).
So Pollard holds many of the cards, and the cards he plays hinge largely on what Dallas gets out of Elliott by midseason. This means that dynasty managers should focus closely on whether the Cowboys continue pushing Elliott as their unquestioned starter. Because if Pollard gets more run, it might signal which player this franchise wants to invest in going forward.
And if Pollard remains in Dallas without Zeke, the atmosphere would be nearly optimal for his dynasty value: a good offensive line, a capable defense, and a strong passing game. A team that should be leading far more than trailing. And no clear backfield competition. Those are conditions for a high-probability RB1.