Exactly one year after announcing his retirement in 2022, Tom Brady took to Twitter to say his final farewell to the NFL. Though his retirement last offseason lasted only 40 days before he enthusiastically rejoined the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, it’s easier to believe this is the final curtain call for the 45-year-old.
After 23 years and building the best resume in NFL history, Brady can walk away knowing he accomplished more than anyone could imagine. And now, the fallout around the NFL will begin, starting with free agency.
Tom Brady Retirement Trickles Down To Free Agency
The NFL will continue on without the GOAT, but there will be a trickle-down effect for teams and quarterbacks this offseason. Several teams may have hoped for Brady to join their franchise in 2023. Other quarterbacks were set to wait until Brady decided to retire or where to play before they find a new home.
It’s obvious the Buccaneers will lose some luster with Brady stepping away from the team. But there is a far greater reach than just his incumbent team, as many others are on the prowl to fill their need at quarterback.
We’re breaking down how Brady’s retirement will have a direct impact on four teams and three quarterbacks who could be on the move in free agency, including Aaron Rodgers and Derek Carr. Brady was the biggest potential domino to change addresses this spring. Losing him as an option is a considerable development.
The Buccaneers Should Tear Down For 2024
Brady’s announcement is devastating for the Buccaneers. In a heartbeat, they’ve gone from a team capable of slightly retooling and hoping their new offensive coordinator and a healthier offensive line would help them compete in 2023 to a team now that needs to strip down a bit. The Buccaneers enter this offseason $55 million over the cap, and Brady’s $35 million cap hit will need restructuring on top of other moves.
Getting younger and cheaper is now a must. The team would have to restructure everyone to open cap space for Carr, Rodgers, or Garoppolo. Bringing Jameis Winston and Todd Monken back is mildly interesting, but the franchise is better off chasing Caleb Williams or Drake Maye in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Trading or releasing veterans Donovan Smith, Shaquille Mason, Russell Gage, Ryan Succop, and Leonard Fournette makes too much sense. Even those moves would only get the Buccaneers to $1.7 million under the cap. It will be a tough offseason for the Buccaneers, and they need to choose for future flexibility over doubling down on an aging roster with a limited upside.
The Las Vegas Raiders Lose Their Best Veteran Option
It was surprising to see the Raiders show their hand with Carr so early. I thought he was a candidate to be moved once the team’s season went south, but sending him home and clearly indicating he’s a goner put the Raiders in one of two camps. They’d either look to reunite head coach Josh McDaniels with Brady or Garoppolo or draft a rookie early in the 2023 NFL Draft.
There’s no question Carr should be able to fetch at least a second-round pick in return, and Brady retiring helps his value. However, the Raiders likely won’t have a clear upgrade to Carr available in free agency. Unlike Carr, Garoppolo has major durability issues, and it’d be utterly shocking to see Geno Smith or Lamar Jackson hit the unrestricted market.
Missing out on Brady hurts. The Raiders lost a lot of close games last year. Having the coolest, most clutch QB of all time under center in those moments may have helped.
The New York Jets May Have To Spend More
Brady wasn’t going to New York but the fact he also won’t be in Tampa, Las Vegas, or San Francisco could affect the Jets. The trade market for Carr may have gone up slightly, and the price for Garoppolo certainly won’t go down. The Jets will continue to lose leverage unless Rodgers forces his way there.
It’s not the end of the world for the Jets to potentially throw another Day 3 pick for Carr or spend another few million for Garoppolo when their front office and coaching staff are fighting for their jobs. However, the margins matter and winning requires some luck on top of skill. This one domino falls against the Jets’ best-luck scenario.
The San Francisco 49ers Gain Clarity
I think there was a scenario where Brady would end up playing for his hometown 49ers and providing an ideal bridge situation for Trey Lance or Brock Purdy to play in 2024. The 49ers will more than likely enter next season with an elite roster and coaching staff but relative unknowns at quarterback.
Lance has been bad when he’s played, and Purdy is awfully similar to Garoppolo physically, so it’s possible he’s just a cheaper version of the limited guy they wanted to replace.
Plugging Brady into this offense would’ve raised the floor and realistic ceiling of the 49ers for 2023, undoubtedly. So would adding Rodgers, but that is only possible if the Packers were willing to accept a future first-round pick in return. No NFL team has been bold enough to accept a package like NBA teams do, where they’re taking a pick far into the future as they bet on the team struggling after their veteran core ages out.
Instead, the 49ers likely enter next season with Lance and Purdy set to fight for the starting job. That could be a great thing if one or both develop into franchise-level stars.
There’s No Way Aaron Rodgers Retires Now
On top of the optimistic tone Rodgers has in regard to what he has left in the tank and how he wants to still compete to win, Brady’s retirement seals Rodgers’ return to the field in 2023.
Rodgers, who is one of the most talented quarterbacks to ever play, won’t want to be overshadowed by Brady in his Hall of Fame induction. Brady and J.J. Watt are much more liked individuals and Brady has an impeccable resume that somewhat embarrasses Rodgers’ lack of Super Bowls in comparison.
Rodgers will ultimately dictate where he plays in 2023 because his contract is large enough for him to have power. Whether it’s in Green Bay, New York, or somewhere unexpected, I’m sure he’ll be on the field and draw out the saga as long as he can.
Derek Carr Gains Leverage
There are more teams with quarterback openings than some might realize. We’ve mentioned Las Vegas, Tampa Bay, and New York, but Atlanta, Indianapolis, Carolina, Houston, and possibly New Orleans, Washington, and Tennessee will all be in the market this offseason for a veteran or rookie. Carr will be able to name his landing spot thanks to his no-trade clause and therefore has the leverage to manufacture a trade and new contract.
The contract part is especially key here. Carr has a team-friendly deal as he’s out of guaranteed money as soon as the league year rolls over but cap numbers of almost $35 million and $44 million in future years. He’s a prime candidate to be traded and extended into a friendlier contract that increases his guarantees and years to help drive down his cap numbers.
Jimmy Garoppolo Will Cash In
Garoppolo is certainly not an ideal fallback for some teams, but he seems too perfect for the Raiders now. He’s worked and had success with McDaniels from 2014 through 2016, and the Raiders are trying to trade one of two other good QBs available besides Garoppolo. The only other acceptable outcome for the Raiders from this offseason other than landing Rodgers or Garoppolo is to land a top rookie.
All of those things are certainly possible for the Raiders, even with Brady off the table. But they’ll have heavy competition for Garoppolo, especially if teams can structure his deal with an out after one or two years. If Garoppolo’s agent is smart, he’ll require guarantees into the third year of his new contract, so he can’t easily be moved until after 2025.