If you enjoy making NFL bets on player touchdowns for Thursday Night Football faceoffs, then welcome to our Week 17 rundown of our favorite anytime TD scorer predictions for the Tennessee Titans vs. Dallas Cowboys.
We’ve analyzed the game’s highest-probability scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are the best bets to reach the end zone. All prop bets are taken from DraftKings, FanDuel, or BetMGM.
TNF Anytime TD Scorer Predictions | Week 17
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics culled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Here’s the set-up for this game, as we assess probabilities for certain players scoring. Over the summer, I warned that the Titans were good bets for only eight to nine wins. When they were 7-3, this prediction seemed ludicrous. Now that they’re 7-8 . . . well, we can see the problem.
As I’ve written for weeks, this remains a Derrick-Henry-or-bust offense. This shortcoming is exacerbated with rookie Malik Willis under center. I actually like Willis as a development piece in the Titans’ organization. But he’s more likely to make a Year 3 or Year 4 jump than a Year 2 jump.
Tennessee is only 27th in scoring. With Henry hobbled and facing a frequently tough Dallas defense, can anyone realistically score tonight? Moreover, with next week’s faceoff against the Jaguars looming — the game that will determine who wins the AFC South — how likely will the Titans be to play their starters the entire game?
The calculus for Dallas is entirely different. While the Titans boast an impressive run defense (yielding the second-fewest yards per carry), they are comfortably beatable through the air, especially versus capable offenses. And with the NFC’s No. 1 seed still within reach, surely their starters will remain locked in until/unless Dallas’s victory is all but assured.
Chigoziem Okonkwo (+800) — FanDuel
I’m willing to bet on two Titans in this contest. While neither are great bets, the odds are too favorable to ignore. Chigoziem Okonkwo is the real deal, especially in a passing attack desperate or playmakers. If Tennessee somehow gets close to the goal line, the rookie should have as good a chance to score as any teammate.
Chris Conley (+1200) — BetMGM
You want a Hail Mary? Here it is. This wager assumes Dallas coasts to a 20+ point victory as Tennessee unleashes their backups on a softening Cowboys defense. The still-speedy Chris Conley (4.35 40-yard dash at the 2015 Combine) is perhaps the healthiest deep-ball threat on this team. Four of his last five TDs have been from 28+ yards out. Yes, he’s a true Hail Mary play.
Dalton Schultz (+240) — BetMGM
Now let’s pivot to the Cowboys. Statistically, few preseason top-12 TEs have been as disappointing as Dalton Schultz. Last year he was (nearly) on top of the world with a 78-808-8 receiving line. This year he’s battled injuries and (respectfully) multiple weeks of sub-par QB play from Cooper Rush.
The result is a middling 46-488-3 receiving line through 13 games. No doubt, he’s not exactly a trendy Week 17 pick on betting platforms.
But the Titans have given up the most TE receptions and second most TE receiving yards, as well as a healthy six TE scores. And Schultz leads all Cowboys with 15 red-zone targets.
Schultz is facing a perfect storm of opportunity in this contest. I’d bet on him to earn at least one end zone look, with a great shot at converting.
Dak Prescott (+475) — DraftKings
The Titans’ fearsome run defense might keep the Cowboys’ backfield out of the end zone. After all, Tennessee has surrendered merely six RB touchdowns — tied for the league’s second-best mark.
Opposing teams have adjusted, using their QBs more often near the goal line. In fact, the Titans have yielded 17 red zone QB touches — tied for the fifth most. The three QB scores they’ve given up are tied for the eighth most.
Prescott’s anytime-TD betting line assumes he’s a long shot to run one in. Given the potentially lopsided nature of this contest, as well as the Titans’ defensive strengths and weaknesses, I’d put the odds closer to 50/50.
Jake Ferguson (+1100) — FanDuel
This is a hedge. Paired with Schultz, rookie Jake Ferguson is a reasonable bet to score if the Cowboys jump out to a big lead early, sending Schultz to the sidelines in exchange for the rookie backup.
And Ferguson is no slouch. He’s reeled in all four of his red-zone targets, converting two into touchdowns. Given the steep odds, he’s a fantastic flier.