If you enjoy making NFL bets on player touchdowns for Thursday Night Football faceoffs, then welcome to our Week 15 rundown of favorite anytime TD scorer predictions for the Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers.
We’ve analyzed the game’s highest-probability scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are the best bets to reach the end zone. All prop bets are taken from DraftKings, FanDuel, or BetMGM.
TNF Anytime TD Scorer Predictions | Week 15
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics culled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Christian McCaffrey (-145) — DraftKings
No player in this game offers a worse financial return than Christian McCaffrey. Of course, that’s by design. It would be shocking if McCaffrey didn’t score.
A fully healthy Niners team would have a lot of great options tonight. But Deebo Samuel is on the shelf. Brandon Aiyuk might continue to be hit-or-miss without Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm. George Kittle has scored in only three games this season while averaging under three catches in his last six outings.
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The Niners acquired McCaffrey to be no less than the 1A RB in a stacked backfield. With Jeff Wilson Jr. in Miami and Elijah Mitchell hurt once again, it’ll be McCaffrey and two mostly untested rookies: Jordan Mason and Tyrion Davis-Price.
The opposing Seahawks are giving up the fifth most rushing yards per carry (4.9). They just got steamrolled by a Carolina Panthers backfield that gained 180 yards on 29 carries (6.2 ypc). The Panthers ended the game with nine consecutive carries, and yet Seattle still couldn’t stop them.
McCaffrey has enjoyed four goal-line scores this year, and he remains as dangerous as any running back outside the red zone. As confident as we can be about anyone in the NFL, McCaffrey belongs at or near the top of that list.
Noah Fant (+500) — FanDuel
These next two bets combine to form a typical TE hedge. By “typical,” I mean when a team has two capable TEs who can score, then if the odds are favorable, I like betting on both.
Among TEs with more than 20 targets, Noah Fant is tied for fifth with a 78.7% catch rate. Simply put, he’s a big body with great hands and terrific chemistry with Geno Smith. His last five scores (dating back to last year) have come from the 5-yard line or closer. He’s a solid bet to hit paydirt.
Will Dissly (+800) — FanDuel
. . . And so is Will Dissly, who’s caught an incredible 84.7% of his targets since 2019. This year, he’s No. 2 in the league at 88.9%.
But he hasn’t scored since Week 8!
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Doesn’t matter. I mean, of course, it matters, in that if his odds were +120, I would steer clear. But an 8-to-1 payout on one of the NFL’s best pairs of hands, on the assumption he nets another 3-4 targets?
When combined with the Fant bet, it’s a strong hedge.
Geno Smith (+700) — DraftKings
Which defense has given up the fewest QB red-zone touches (i.e. primarily QB rushing attempts)? The 49ers. So why should we bet on Geno Smith tonight, even with this pretty lofty betting line?
For starters, Smith is one of the league’s more run-friendly quarterbacks, garnering the ninth most carries at his position. That he’s scored only once is hardly consequential. His running is part of his team’s game plan.
And they’re facing a defense that’s No. 1 against the run in terms of yards per carry. And the Niners are statistically toughest against RBs, who have scored the third-fewest TDs (five) against San Francisco.
If the Seahawks get inside the Niners’ 10-yard line, Smith might have as good a chance as any of his teammates to reach the end zone. Eight of his nine career rushing TDs have come from inside the 9-yard line. He’s worth the investment.
Danny Gray (+1000) — FanDuel
Finally, rookie Danny Gray. His 4.33 40-yard speed reinforces what we already know: he’s a big-play receiver coming off the highest target-share outing of his brief career. Samuel’s absence opens the door for more looks as the likely No. 5 or No. 6 offensive weapon.
Admittedly, this is a longshot bet. But consider the other 49ers we might consider:
Jauan Jennings’ most bettor-friendly anytime-TD line is +245 (DraftKings). Is he really four times more likely than Gray to score? Aiyuk is at +135 (FanDuel). Kittle is at +220 (FanDuel).
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All of these guys are dart throws in a run-focused offense complemented by a typically backup QB. McCaffrey probably will lead his teammates in targets and receptions.
So we’re betting on one big play because anywhere near the goal line, I don’t see the 49ers risking it all with a pass play — not when they paid so much to get McCaffrey.