T.J. Hockenson was dealt to the Minnesota Vikings halfway through last season and produced a 100+ catch pace during his time with the team. He showed nice potential during his 3.5 seasons with the Detroit Lions, but the volume he saw following the trade has fantasy football managers putting him on the short list of tight ends with a chance to unseat Travis Kelce atop the TE ranks.
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T.J. Hockenson’s Fantasy Outlook
The Vikings fully embraced the pass-first nature of the game following the trade for Hockenson, and there’s no reason to think that doesn’t continue this season. In Weeks 1-8, Minnesota dropped back to pass 64.5% of the time (13th), but from Week 9 through the playoffs, that rate spiked to 66.9% (third).
It’s no secret that the success of this offense revolves around Justin Jefferson, but after him, Hockenson projects as the clear go-to option. Jordan Addison (No. 23 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft) replaces Adam Thielen as the WR2 and K.J. Osborn returns as the WR3 (60-650-5 receiving line last season), but neither figures to challenge Hockenson’s standing as the next-best option.
The only fantasy box Hock has yet to check is a breakout scoring season (career-high six touchdowns last year), and if he can improve in that area, this could be a special campaign for the 26-year-old.
What Did We Learn From Hockenson Post-Trade Last Season?
We learned that Hockenson’s usage can hold up with anyone at the position. And I mean anyone. Both he and Travis Kelce played 10 regular-season games after Hockenson was dealt to the Vikings — here’s how they performed:
Kelce — 351 routes, 92 targets (three end-zone), and 63 catches
Hockenson — 362 routes, 86 targets (seven end-zone), and 60 catches
The volume was a thing of beauty and should be sustained this season, but can those receptions hold enough value to truly rank among the elite tight ends? Last season with Minnesota, Hockenson averaged just 8.6 yards per catch (well below his career average of 10.5 and a steep decline from the 15.2 yards per catch he averaged to open the season with Detroit), and that could hold him back.
MORE: Fantasy Football TE Busts 2023 — Players To Avoid Include T.J. Hockenson, Evan Engram
He was a downfield target (his aDOT was actually 10% higher than that of Kelce during those 10 games), but he displayed limitations in playmaking with the ball in his hands (3.2 yards after the catch, less than half of Kelce’s mark).
Of course, that is a small sample, but we’ve yet to see Hock truly emerge as a threat after the catch — a profile flaw that lowers his weekly floor.
That said, his role in this efficient offense and his downfield route running give him a ceiling that few at the position have access to, and that is why I have him ranked as my TE2.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Hockenson at His ADP?
At ADP, Hockenson is one of two tight ends that I am currently considering decent buy options inside the top 100 players (Hockenson: 43rd overall, and Darren Waller: 68th overall). I’m not sure the odds of him outproducing Kelce point for point are all that likely, but could he prove to hold more value as a result of being drafted nearly three rounds later? Yeah, I think he could.
For me, the sheer volume of passes in his offense makes him a better pick than Mark Andrews and George Kittle, both of whom are being drafted roughly a round after Hockenson. Non-tight ends being drafted in this general range are a Soppe dead zone (Deebo Samuel, Kenneth Walker III, and Aaron Jones), so yeah, I do find myself landing on Hockenson quite a bit in early drafts.
I want to hear from you — which of the top three tight ends do you like most at their current cost? Reach out to me on Twitter!