Ahead of the 2022 NFL trade deadline, Detroit Lions tight end T.J. Hockenson was traded to the Minnesota Vikings. Let’s examine the fantasy football ramifications of Hockenson’s trade to the Vikings, both on the likes of Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, as well as Amon-Ra St. Brown and Josh Reynolds.
Fantasy Impact of the T.J. Hockenson Trade
This trade is intriguing for Hockenson’s fantasy value. He moves to a team in the Vikings who have given 47 targets in the direction of their two tight ends. However, on Sunday, Irv Smith Jr. suffered an ankle sprain that is likely to sideline him for six to eight weeks.
Prior to the injury, Smith was averaging 4.71 targets per game, with Johnny Mundt seeing two targets per game on average. Through the first seven weeks, Hockenson has averaged 6.14 targets per game in Detroit. Therefore, this move presents the opportunity to see Hockenson targeted a similar number of times in Minnesota. However, it’s tough to know whether Mundt would still see work in two TE sets.
Overall, this largely reflects a flat move for Hockenson in terms of fantasy value. He remains a starting option in nearly all leagues. There is the concern he could see fewer targets, but we should also expect the Vikings to look at shifting a few more looks his way than they were sending to the Smith-Mundt duo.
Fantasy Impact on Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, and K.J. Osborn
If more targets shift to the tight end position following this trade, it likely has a kickback on the WRs. Jefferson has averaged 10.1 targets per game, while Thielen is at 7.14, and K.J. Osborn is at 4.43. It would be a surprise if we see the Vikings funnel more looks away from Jefferson. However, both Thielen and Osborn could lose targets.
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Therefore, if you were relying on Thielen in a deep PPR league, he may be set to see a decrease in value. Similarly, any boom-bust value that Osborn has likely decreases with another significant mouth to feed. Additionally, this craters any value that Smith might have had when he returns from his injury.
Fantasy Impact on Amon-Ra St. Brown, Josh Reynolds, D’Andre Swift, and the other Lions’ Tight Ends
Prior to the trade, Hockenson was second on the team with 43 targets, behind only St. Brown with 50. Josh Reynolds was next at 42, and Kalif Raymond at 25. The next tight end in terms of targets is Brock Wright, with six in seven games. With no obvious replacement at tight end, this trade could funnel more targets to the wide receivers and running backs.
The biggest beneficiaries could very well be Reynolds and RB D’Andre Swift. Before the move, they were averaging 6.14 and 4.25 targets per game, respectively. Assuming Wright and the other tight ends on the Lions’ roster do not combine to take on Hockenson’s 6.14 targets per game, we should see some extra opportunities available.
St. Brown is already seeing 8.33 targets, so unless he sees two more per game, it would not be a huge value increase for him. However, if Reynolds and Swift pick up one or two targets each, that has an intriguing relative value.
Additionally, Hockenson has three touchdowns this year. While the Lions will still likely find a tight end option in the red zone, we should see some of that work in and around the goal line filtering out elsewhere.