Entering fantasy draft season, Minnesota Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson is a very interesting case study. Hockenson is a tough player to evaluate given the depth at the tight end position, the Vikings’ change from Kirk Cousins to Sam Darnold under center, and the status of Hockenson’s injured knee.
Hockenson seems to have a wide range of outcomes for the 2024 NFL season, so what should fantasy managers expect from him as he enters his sixth year in the league?
T.J. Hockenson’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 162.2
- Receptions: 68.1
- Receiving Yards: 687.9
- Receiving TDs: 4.2
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 15. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Hockenson This Year?
To give you an idea of just how great Hockenson was in 2024, his 14.6 fantasy points per game tied Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce for the most at the tight-end position in full-PPR formats. If Hockenson hadn’t suffered a torn ACL in Week 15, it’s entirely plausible that he would have posted the first overall TE1 fantasy finish of his NFL career.
Unfortunately, Hockenson did sustain that injury, and it’s possible that he’ll be sidelined for a chunk of the 2024 season. Every year in fantasy football, there is a great player who’s coming off a serious injury, making them very difficult to evaluate. While there’s the upside play of getting a great player at a draft-day discount, there’s the risk of significantly reduced production, efficiency, or a higher injury rate if the player suffers a setback.
With that said, it’s hard to argue with how excellent Hockenson has been since being acquired by Minnesota. From Weeks 1 to through 16 last year, he was the TE1 overall in full-PPR formats. From Weeks 9 to 18 of the 2022 season — after he was traded to the Vikings — Hockenson was the TE3 overall in the same scoring format. Objectively, those numbers suggest he is an elite option at the TE position in this offensive scheme.
It’s worth noting that the Vikings’ quarterback change raises some questions. Can Hockenson continue to post these kinds of numbers with Darnold under center rather than the stable and reliable Cousins? While Darnold has been solid throughout training camp, there’s definitely some uncertainty about this passing attack and how productive it will be.
Ultimately, I’m willing to bet on Hockenson’s talent and what we’ve seen throughout his entire stint with the Vikings. The fantasy projections listed above seem very plausible, assuming he is healthy enough to play 12 games this upcoming season.
Hockenson’s ADP at No. 116 overall in the 10th round as the TE12 off the board is strictly tied to the status of his recovering knee. If he starts getting on the field more often or there’s a positive update about his status for the season opener (or even Week 2), his ADP will skyrocket into the fourth or fifth-round range.
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Yet, there is a real possibility that Hockenson could start the first month of the 2024 NFL season on the shelf, which means this will likely be his price point when fantasy drafts roll around.
When healthy, Hockenson has a TE1 overall fantasy ceiling. His production in Minnesota on a per-game basis confirms this potential range of outcomes. The questions surrounding the status of his knee and the concerns about Darnold potentially lower his ceiling a bit, but I still believe Hockenson is a top-five fantasy TE when healthy in 2024.
Ultimately, the goal entering every fantasy season is to win the championship. Even a pessimistic outlook for Hockenson has him available by Week 8 — which means he should be up to full speed by the time the fantasy playoffs roll around. To me, if you can get a top-five option at tight end in the 10th round who could help elevate your fantasy team to championship heights when it matters most, you have to pull the trigger.