As one of the best tight ends in the NFL, Detroit Lions TE T.J. Hockenson looks to jump into the elite tier of fantasy football rankings. Likely the target leader of a team needing to pass quite a bit, what is Hockenson’s fantasy outlook in 2021, and should you consider drafting the third-year TE at his current ADP?
T.J. Hockenson’s fantasy outlook for 2021
Hockenson was a must-start in fantasy as a second-year player, a rare occurrence for a tight end. He hauled in 67 of his 101 targets for 723 yards and 6 touchdowns. Amongst other TEs, he was fifth in targets, fourth in receptions, and third in yards.
In 2020, Hockenson was the TE5 in PPR, scoring 175.3 points and 11.0 ppg. To put that into perspective, including Hockenson, tight ends have only crossed this threshold 24 times since 2016.
The issue for Hockenson last year, and what will likely remain the same in 2021, is the lack of scoring chances which bring down his points per opportunity. Despite finishing as the TE5, Hockenson’s 1.74 fantasy points per target ranked 28th (minimum 20 targets), 0.42 points behind Travis Kelce, 0.18 behind Darren Waller, and 1.25 points behind Robert Tonyan.
The biggest factor to consider with Hockenson as part of your draft strategy is the amount of volume he can receive. In terms of just raw vacated targets from 2020, no team has more than the Lions. The losses of Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, Danny Amendola, and others accounted for 64.1% of the passing attempts in 2020. Furthermore, they lost players responsible for 50% of the targets inside the 10-yard line (15).
Hockenson is locked into the top five of fantasy rankings and could very well lead the Lions in targets in 2021.
Fantasy projection
No team is undergoing more changes than the Lions are in 2021. It may not be a flashy name to paste on the headline, but there are several new questions that we need answers from.
Firstly, what is the new offense going to look like in 2021? While Dan Campbell will be biting off knee caps, the offense and how it operates will be OC Anthony Lynn’s responsibility. Lynn was previously the head coach of the Los Angeles Chargers.
Lynn has demonstrated the ability to make his offense versatile to fit his personnel. If we look at the Lions, their strengths are on the offensive line and at running back. So long as the Lions are staying in games, expect to see an offense that works through the backfield. It should be a steady dose of D’Andre Swift in the run game, with backfield targets to him and Jamaal Williams.
In turn, that will help set up play-action, which aligns with Jared Goff’s wheelhouse thus far in his NFL career. However, there are a number of questions to be answered about Goff as well.
We know that Hockenson will make his impact where Goff likes to operate — the short and intermediate areas of the field. In 2020, Goff ranked 59th of 80 QBs in average depth of target at 6.1. Also, Goff has demonstrated a willingness to target the TE. Over his career, he has targeted the position on 18.8% of his attempts, including 24% over the last two.
Hockenson should have a fantastic season based on early projections, seeing around 115 targets with 75 to 80 receptions for approximately 775 to 800 yards and 5 touchdowns.
T.J. Hockenson’s fantasy ADP
According to Sleeper, Hockenson currently has an ADP of 53.4 in half-PPR formats. On Fleaflicker, his ADP is 55. Meanwhile, on NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Hockenson currently holds a 61.33 ADP.
Should you draft Hockenson in 2021 for fantasy?
The tight end position has some of the most defined tiers in all of fantasy. In a tier of his own, it’s Travis Kelce. Then in the second tier, it’s Darren Waller and George Kittle. In Tier 3, you have Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts, and Hockenson. Of the Andrews-Pitts-Hockenson tier, you can take them in whatever order you so choose.
It all comes down to how you like to construct your fantasy team. Pitts and Andrews potentially have more upside, given the greater chance for touchdowns. But the floor could be much lower for those two than Hockenson. Andrews is somewhat TD-dependent, and Pitts, for all the hype, is still a rookie.
If you are looking for a high-volume floor with some consistency, Hockenson is your guy. Hockenson’s value and outlook in fantasy are based on volume, not touchdowns. When those come, they are a bonus, and it gives him top-three upside in those weeks. I want to make sure I walk away with one of those five tight ends, and odds are I have the most shares of Hockenson of anyone else.