One of the top tight ends in the NFL and fantasy football, Detroit Lions TE T.J. Hockenson projects to be an early pick once again in 2022 fantasy drafts. Hockenson’s 2022 fantasy outlook rivals the top players in the game at the position if things break right. With the NFL season and fantasy drafts closing in, what is Hockenson’s outlook for 2022, and could he prove to be a value at his current ADP?
T.J. Hockenson’s fantasy outlook for 2022
It’s likely we’ve seen Hockenson’s ceiling already. His 101 targets in 2020 en route to a TE5 PPR finish likely could be high-water marks. But honestly, that’s okay. He’s still produced back-to-back TE7 or better finishes in fantasy points per game and is on a team that is quietly loaded with talent.
Before an injury ended Hockenson’s season prematurely, through 13 weeks, he ranked sixth in points per game, fifth in targets/game (7), first in route participation (85%), third in target share (19%), and third in air-yard share last season.
He’ll have more competition this year for opportunities, but by no means is Hockenson out of this offense. As a post-hype sleeper who didn’t truly break out, Hockenson’s value is too good to pass up. He’s right in the middle tier of tight ends who should find stable value for fantasy in 2022. Hockenson’s floor makes him a weekly starter, even if his ceiling tapers behind others in his tier.
Based on my projections, Hockenson should be No. 2 for the team in targets this year as he works in Jared Goff’s sweet spot of the field. Hockenson has the skill set after the catch to take those short passes and turn them into longer gains. Once in the red zone, outside of Amon-Ra St. Brown, Hockenson could be Goff’s go-to target when looking for six. That’s all you can ask for out of tight ends in fantasy football.
How the Lions’ depth chart impacts T.J. Hockenson’s fantasy projection for the season
The Lions made a few big signings in the offseason to add more pass-catching weapons. First, they signed DJ Chark, a former breakout who needs a bounce back in 2022 after an injury-shortened campaign a year ago. I don’t see him impacting Hockenson’s upside too much, as they should work in different areas of the field. Chark is a field stretcher, not an intermediate route runner with strength and contact balance like St. Brown.
During the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft, Detroit added Alabama standout, WR Jameson Williams. Williams has the talent to be the top WR of this class, and if not for a torn ACL suffered in the national championship against Georgia, he might have been the first one off the board.
Williams will start the season on the reserve/NFI list, meaning he’ll miss a minimum of four weeks before he can be cleared to return. Once back, I expect the Lions to be very cautious in how quickly they get him acclimated and keep him on a snap-count restriction. Odds are we don’t see the upside of this pick until next year when he’s healthy, as the Lions likely will have a new QB under center.
As far as any other threat to Hockenson on the depth chart, D’Andre Swift should be mentioned. Amongst positions, the correlation between targets amongst RBs and TEs is stronger than any other. They are safety-valve options in most cases, but Swift is a pass-catching weapon, which is different.
Despite missing four games, Swift finished fourth in targets last season (78) and tied for the lead amongst RBs in targets per game (six). He averaged 17.6 opportunities per game, 34% of which came through the air. Of his total yardage, 42% came in the passing game. I don’t really see that tapering off too much in 2022 seeing as Swift sits among the top 10 running backs for fantasy in PPR formats.
Hockenson’s ADP for 2022
With an ADP of 64, Hockenson is coming off the boards as the TE7 in PPR formats at the moment, placing him in Round 6 of 12-team fantasy leagues.
In PFN’s 2022 fantasy football redraft rankings, Hockenson is the TE8 and 94th-ranked player. I too have Hockenson as my TE8 but list him at 79 overall. Be sure to check back, as rankings will fluctuate between now and the start of the season.
If you don’t want to reach too early for the tier of Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, or Kyle Pitts, Hockenson is a stable mid-round pick that solidifies the position. However, he’s also in a jam-packed part of the draft for wide receivers, so you’ll need to determine your roster’s primary needs at the moment. If you do pass and opt for the late-round TE approach, Cole Kmet and Albert Okwuegbunam are very intriguing options as potential breakouts.