If you’re planning to make NFL prop bets for this pivotal Tennessee Titans vs. Dallas Cowboys Week 17 matchup on Thursday Night Football, then you’ve come to the right place.
We’ve analyzed the game’s highest-probability scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated and which could fall short of expectations. All prop bets are based on DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM, or FanDuel Sportsbook, where you can get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000.
Top Titans vs. Cowboys Prop Bets To Target
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
These recommended bets assume a final score of roughly 32-11 Cowboys. Yes, I’m predicting a Scorigami for one of the most unusual Thursday Night Football games in recent memory.
Dallas still has a shot at the NFC’s No. 1 seed, while Tennessee’s season largely comes down to next week’s win-or-bust faceoff against the Jaguars.
In the past few years, the Cowboys’ offense has averaged elite production with Dak Prescott under center. But the Titans? Well, they remain largely a Derrick-Henry-or-bust offense. And with Henry hobbled — and with Week 18 looming — it’s quite possible Tennessee will play this one relatively conservatively.
As a reminder, I warned this summer that the Titans were good bets for only eight to nine wins. They were once 7-3, but with a brutally tough schedule remaining. Now they’re 7-8. Outside of Henry, they’re a team filled with prop-bet fliers. Even rookie Chigoziem Okonkwo could take a backseat tonight if the team doesn’t want to risk a fluke injury to their de facto No. 1 TE.
Tennessee is only 27th in scoring. Josh Dobbs reportedly will be under center. It would be a minor miracle if this team manufactures more than 175 offensive yards against a defense that — at its best — is one of the best in the game.
First Titans Drive Prop Bets
As of Wednesday evening, there are no available yardage-based prop bets for the Titans. So we need to get a little creative.
MORE: Titans vs. Cowboys Anytime TD Prop Bets To Target
Since I believe they’ll have trouble moving the ball most of the night, I’m betting on one of two scenarios for their opening drive. If they punt (the most likely outcome), the following hedge will yield a slight net loss. But with the inexperienced Dobbs at QB, the distinct possibility of a turnover or safety makes this hedge worthwhile.
- Punt
(-175) — DraftKings - Turnover, Turnover on Downs, or Safety
(+550) — DraftKings
First Half Score Differential Prop Bets
In nine games since Dak Prescott’s return from a Week 1 injury, the Cowboys have averaged a blistering 36 points per game. It would be a minor miracle if Tennessee keeps this one close. Assuming at least five first-half offensive drives for each team, I believe Dallas has a tangible edge.
- Cowboys lead by more than 6.5 points
(-110) — Draftkings - Cowboys lead
(-340) — DraftKings
Dak Prescott Prop Bets
The Titans have one of the best run defenses. That probably won’t save them tonight, as the Cowboys’ passing game is as good as any in the league.
Some bettors might fade Prescott on the assumption they’ll coast after taking a big lead. But to get that big lead, Prescott will need to air it out.
- Passing yards over 240.5
(-125) — DraftKings - Passing touchdowns over 1.5
(-135) — DraftKings
CeeDee Lamb Prop Bets
More to the point, the Titans have surrendered the league’s second-most receiving yards and are tied for the second-most receiving TDs yielded.
With Amari Cooper in Cleveland, CeeDee Lamb has emerged as an unquestionably elite wideout with monster weekly upside. I’m no astrologist or farmer, but the stars are aligned for Lamb to be well fed.
- Receiving yards over 70.5
(-115) — BetMGM
Dalton Schultz Prop Bets
I believe in the squeaky-wheel theory, though it’s not always because a player complains publicly about sparse usage. Sometimes the squeakiness gets fixed as teams gear up for the postseason. You can’t always keep executing the same strategy and expect the same results.
Dalton Schultz remains a near-elite tight end. His numbers might not show it. But he leads the Cowboys in red-zone targets and is a weekly threat to dominate.
Few defenses are worse against TEs than the Titans. With Michael Gallup not (yet?) stepping up as a reliable No. 2 WR, Dallas needs to get Schultz going ahead of the all-important playoffs.
- Receiving yards over 38.5
(-114) — FanDuel