Will Levis shined in his NFL debut last week, throwing for four touchdowns in a 28-23 upset win over the Atlanta Falcons. On a short week in Pittsburgh, can Levis and the Tennessee Titans make it two in a row on Thursday Night Football and get to .500?
Or will Kenny Pickett and this Steelers offense continue to struggle, as they haven’t out gained any of their opponents offensively this season. Let’s check out the Titans vs. Steelers predictions, picks, player props, and more.
Tennessee Titans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Lines
There has been very little movement since the Titans vs. Steelers odds opened on Sunday night. Even in a week with a staggering five totals below 40 points, this is the lowest total of the week at 37. It’s worth noting that unders in night games are 19-7 this year, although four of the seven overs have come on Thursday Night football.
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless stated otherwise.
- Spread
Steelers -3 - Moneyline
Titans +136, Steelers -162 - Over/Under
37
Tennessee Titans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Predictions
Bearman: If you’ve read any of the columns this year, you know exactly where I’m going with this pick.
The Steelers’ offense continues to be horrible, ranking 30th in total yards, 28th in rushing, 25th in passing, and 29th in points. The team total is 19.5, around where it was last week when we bet the under. They have cleared this number three times all year, and once was due to two defensive touchdowns. Tennessee may not have the best defense, but the Steelers can’t move the ball.
Pick: Steelers team total U19.5 (-114 at FanDuel)
Blewis: The hype train is at full force for Levis right now after his electric debut last week, in which he threw for four touchdown passes, including TD throws of 47 and 61 yards to DeAndre Hopkins. But this will be Levis’ first career start on the road, and it comes on a short week and in a tough road environment in Pittsburgh, which chalks this up as a nice sell-high spot.
I’m also on the side of Levis’ performance being a bit overrated last week. I’m not trying to take anything away from him, as for a first career start, it was very impressive. But one of the touchdown connections to Hopkins should’ve been called for OPI, and while Levis excelled on early downs, he had an EPA/play of -0.60 in expected passing situations.
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I could isolate the Titans’ team total under as road underdogs here, but I might as well continue to keep fading this dreadful Steelers offense that has failed to score 20 or more points without a pair of defensive touchdowns this season. Kenny Pickett should also be playing hurt in this one after leaving last week’s game with a rib injury.
I also added a late play of Steelers -2.5, which you can still grab at FanDuel. I know the Steelers haven’t been as good as their record, but similarly to my reasoning for taking the under, it’s mostly a fade of Will Levis.
Pick: Under 36.5 (-108 at DraftKings), Steelers -2.5 (-114 at FanDuel)
Soppe: Diontae Johnson has proven healthy since returning from injured reserve and is a proven target-earner (24.1% target share in his three games this season). With Pickett banged up, Johnson’s ability to win off the line of scrimmage should be featured even further than normal. He has at least five grabs in 37 of his past 45 healthy games (82.2%), and against a pass-funnel Titans defense (11th in yards per carry allowed, 27th in yards per pass), it’s tough to see that changing.
The volume appears safe, and we may have gotten a glimpse at some upside. Last week, Johnson posted an aDOT that was 31.4% higher than his rate from 2022. Yes, it was only one game, but we know this offense has shown an interest in having Pickett challenge defenses down the field, and this development adds some upside to Johnson’s portfolio.
Picks: Diontae Johnson over 4.5 catches (-150 at DraftKings) and over 57.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Soppe: This is a matchup that puts Jaylen Warren in a good spot as the pass-catching threat in the Pittsburgh backfield.
Percentage of touches earned through catches this year:
- Jaylen Warren: 36.6%
- Najee Harris: 13.4%
Warren has cleared his projected total for this week in five of his past six games, with the lone exception being when the Steelers were working Johnson back from his month-long absence.
Pick: Jaylen Warren over 18.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Katz: I’m not one to seek out patterns where they don’t exist, but Derrick Henry has scored a touchdown in every other game this season, and he didn’t score one last week.
Of course, that’s not the reason I like Henry to find the end zone against the Steelers — it’s more of the entire situation. The Titans are short underdogs, meaning we should get a competitive game that keeps the run in play. Last week, Levis threw for four touchdowns, but I have a hard time envisioning every Titans touchdown coming via the air once again. If they’re on the ground, it’s probably going to be Henry.
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Last season, I had a rule. If Henry’s anytime touchdown line was at -110 or better, I would bet it. I don’t have that rule this year because Henry isn’t as sure of a bet for a touchdown, but when I get plus-odds against a defense that struggles against the run, count me in.
Pick: Derrick Henry anytime touchdown (+145 at Caesars)
Broyles: The best way for the Steelers to attack the Titans’ defense is through the air. Although Johnson receives more targets, George Pickens continues his ascension as a premium downfield target. Pickett only has to connect with Pickens a few times to scale the receiving yards prop. With the passing volume receiving an uptick on Thursday Night Football, the second-year receiver should go over on his reception total also.
Picks: George Pickens over 52.5 receiving yards (-115 on DraftKings), over 4.5 receptions (+130 on DraftKings)
Gallimore: Treylon Burks has underwhelmed so far in his young NFL career. However, I am still a believer in his talent and ability, and I think much of his struggles are due to injuries and unfortunate circumstances than his actual ability as a starting NFL wide receiver.
Burks was starting to prove his first round value last season before a head injury on a 25-yard touchdown catch against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 12 took him out for the next two weeks. And this season, he turned in a 76 yard performance in Week 2 before suffering another injury that sidelined him for three weeks.
The 2022 first round pick returned to the field last week, logging 51% of offensive snaps. We can almost definitely expect more than that this week with another week of full, healthy practices. The Steelers’ defense ranks 25th in yards allowed per pass attempt. With the total sitting at just 24.5, I believe there’s asymmetric upside to Burks hitting his over.
Pick: Treylon Burks over 24.5 receiving yards (-120)
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