The Tennessee Titans‘ 2024 reset doesn’t just include its coaching staff — there’s a new-look backfield as well following the departure of franchise legend Derrick Henry in free agency.
Second-year back Tyjae Spears, who showed well as Henry’s understudy in 2023, and free-agent addition Tony Pollard head up a two-headed ground attack that offers plenty of upside and versatility.
However, with two talented players sharing the backfield, what’s the fantasy football outlook for each in 2024?
Tyjae Spears’ Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR fantasy Points: 217.9 (144.2 Non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 641.8
- Rushing Touchdowns: 2.8
- Receptions: 73.7
- Receiving Yards: 545.4
- Receiving Touchdowns: 1.4
Not to be overly dramatic, but does this feel like the Cooper Kupp vs. Robert Woods debate heading into 2021?
I’m not sure who is Kupp and who is Woods in this Titans backfield, but we’re drafting them in the eight-round range, thinking that this new-look offense will feature reasonable running back production that will be divided down the middle between the incumbent Spears and the freshly signed Pollard.
Gone is Tim Kelly, the offensive coordinator who directed Tennessee to the fifth-lowest pass rate over expectation (PROE) in the league a season ago, leaning heavily on Henry to minimize the impact of any stumbles from Will Levis as a rookie. Gone is Henry himself, a great — albeit limited — back.
In is Nick Holz as OC, a former assistant of the Jacksonville Jaguars (fifth-highest PROE team in 2023), who brought in Calvin Ridley (76-1,016-8 last season) to pair alongside DeAndre Hopkins in addition to the aforementioned Pollard (18.8% of his career touches have been receptions compared to Henry’s career rate of 7.1%).
It’s not rare to see quarterbacks take a big step forward in Year 2, and it would appear that the Titans are giving Levis every chance to prove himself in his second season. Spears was allotted just one game with 10+ carries last season, a role I’d expect him to walk into 2024 with, regardless of how you feel about Pollard. It is, of course, worth noting that Pollard did ink a three-year deal for $21,750,000 (potential out after the 2025 season).
That indicates that Tennessee’s coaching staff is buying Pollard’s résumé (4.8 yards per carry) more than the down season as a featured back in 2023 (4.0 YPC and one of the worst seasons in terms of converting red-zone carries in recent memory).
What is the point in me saying all of this? Embrace the uncertainty.
Despite very limited usage as a rookie, Spears had five games with a 20+ yard touch and showed versatility that we weren’t sure was in his profile.
- College: 10.1% of touches were receptions
- 2023: 34.2% of touches were receptions
Unlike the Kupp/Woods situation from 2021, neither Pollard nor Spears is going to cost you much. At this moment, neither is being drafted as a fantasy starter, and it would surprise me if we finished the season without one of them as a locked-in weekly asset.
– Kyle Soppe, Fantasy Football Analyst
Tony Pollard’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR fantasy Points: 195.3 (154.0 Non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 849.6
- Rushing Touchdowns: 5.2
- Receptions: 41.3
- Receiving Yards: 319.6
- Receiving Touchdowns: 0.9
It may be difficult to label Pollard’s RB14 finish in full-PPR formats in 2023 a complete disaster, but considering the number of opportunities he was given in a high-powered scoring offense with the Cowboys last year … it certainly feels like a disaster.
Many had sky-high fantasy expectations for Pollard after his breakout 2022 season when Ezekiel Elliott was still around, vulturing away short-yardage scoring opportunities and north of 200+ carries away from the Memphis Tigers product.
Tony Pollard Fantasy Stats Over the Last Two Seasons
- 2023: 1,316 total yards, 307 total touches, 6 TDs (RB14)
- 2022: 1,378 total yards, 232 total touches, 12 TDs (RB8)
The yardage totals are similar enough, but finishing with 62 fewer total yards on 75 additional touches sounds the alarm for a catastrophic drop in efficiency on a per-touch basis last year.
To make matters worse, Pollard scoring half as many touchdowns on the aforementioned 75 additional touches from the season prior feels almost inexcusable given that he finished 2023 trailing only San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey in red-zone carries, scoring five rushing touchdowns on 60 carries inside opponents’ 20-yard line last season.
Now, he is set to join a Titans offense that is unlikely to generate the same amount of scoring opportunities and production that Pollard saw in Dallas. For some context, Dallas led the NFL with 71 trips to the red zone last season, while the Titans finished 23rd in that department.
The offensive line in Tennessee could be another issue, but the addition of offensive tackle prospect JC Latham from Alabama could help give this unit a more favorable outlook than last season.
Pollard may have gotten the big payday and has some veteran accolades to suggest he may be the leading ball carrier to start the year. Yet, if Pollard’s struggles continue into 2024, don’t be surprised if Spears steals this backfield away from Pollard by the end of the year.
Fantasy managers are currently a bit stuck on what to do with Pollard at the moment. His ADP currently sits at No. 79 overall as the RB26 off the board, with his teammate (Spears) just 16 overall spots below him.
His seventh-round price tag isn’t terrible by any stretch, but I would just advise you to temper your expectations by suggesting Pollard’s day as a top-15 fantasy RB has probably come to an end.