The Tennessee Titans’ 2024 NFL season has left them with a lot more questions than answers as they head into Week 18 with a 3-13 record. They entered the year hoping that Will Levis would emerge as their starting quarterback of the future, but instead, they benched him and rode veteran quarterback Mason Rudolph in the second half of the season.
The Titans’ one silver lining is that this season has been bad enough that they are set to pick inside the top five and have the potential to pick No. 1 overall in the 2025 NFL Draft. That gives them the chance to immediately change the direction of their franchise by offering them the pick of the top quarterbacks in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Let’s examine how the Titans could end up with the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft and the potential range of outcomes in terms of where they pick in April.
Update: The Tennessee Titans have clinched the No. 1 overall pick. The Browns have the second pick, the Giants at No. 3, and the Patriots at No. 4.
What Are the Tennessee Titans’ Scenarios for Picking No. 1 Overall in the 2025 NFL Draft?
Entering Week 18, the Titans sit second in the projected 2025 NFL Draft order. They are tied with the New England Patriots, Cleveland Browns, and New York Giants in terms of win percentage, with all four having a 3-13 record.
The first NFL Draft tiebreaker for teams tied in terms of winning percentage is strength of schedule (SOS). The Titans’ SOS entering Week 18 is 0.515, which is the second lowest of the four teams, hence giving them the second pick as things stand. The Patriots have the first pick with a 0.467 SOS, the Browns are third at 0.540, and the Giants are fourth with an SOS of 0.551.
The good news for the Titans is that if they lose, they cannot fall any lower in the order than the second overall pick. The 0.025 difference between them and the Browns in terms of SOS is too much to be overhauled in Week 18, where traditionally, SOS shifts are small due to teams playing others within their division, negating many of the SOS changes.
However, the flip side of that is that if the Patriots lose, the Titans cannot overhaul the 0.048 difference in SOS. Therefore, the Titans would not be able to get to the first overall pick if the Patriots were to lose to the Buffalo Bills. If the Patriots tie or win against the Bills, the Titans would move into the No. 1 pick if they lose.
The unknown in all of this is what the Bills may look like on Sunday. They are locked into the No. 2 seed in the AFC, so they appear set to rest key players, boosting the Patriots’ chances of winning in Week 18. However, Josh Allen is expected to play as he looks to extend his 114-game starting streak, and also lay down a final marker in the MVP race. The question is whether he will play considerable time or just a few drives.
As of Friday, the sportsbooks still had the Bills as favorites to win (-135), but our internal projections put this game closer to 50-50. The Patriots pushed a Bills team at full strength all the way in Week 16, but despite Jerod Mayo saying they will play to beat the Bills, it is hard not to imagine the Patriots considering “tanking” to clinch the first pick.
As of Friday, our win probabilities give the Titans a 26% chance of clinching the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
If the Titans win, they cannot get the No. 1 overall pick, regardless of the result in Foxborough. Even if New England wins, the Titans still cannot overcome the SOS difference. The Titans are also likely to play a team in the Houston Texans that uses backups at some point. DeMeco Ryans said he would play his starters but did not confirm for how long. That is why our system gives the Titans a 48% chance of victory in Week 18.
The Titans could pick first if they tie with Houston. They would need the Patriots to win and the Browns or Giants to either tie or win. However, the odds of that are extremely low, given we have not had a single tie this season.
Victory for the Titans could see them drop from their currently projected second place in the 2025 NFL Draft order to as low as seventh.
Tennessee’s SOS of 0.515 is higher than the Jacksonville Jaguars (0.474), the Carolina Panthers (0.496), and the New York Jets (0.500), who all enter the week with four wins. If the Titans win and the Browns, Giants, Jaguars, Panthers, and Jets lose, the Titans will end up picking seventh.
The chances of all of that happening are as low as just 5%, but there is a path to the Titans dropping that far. Depending on the combination of results, the Titans could finish anywhere between first and seventh in the 2025 NFL Draft order.