The Tennessee Titans have had a rough 2024 season, but it has potentially left them in a position to pick first in the 2025 NFL Draft. The Titans are one of four teams with three wins after the early slate of games in Week 17. That could mean the Titans end up with the No. 1 overall pick, but they need some help.
Using the PFN NFL Playoff Predictor, let’s examine the scenarios for the Titans to pick first overall in the 2025 NFL Draft.
What Are the Tennessee Titans’ Scenarios for the No. 1 Pick in the 2025 NFL Draft?
Things played out largely perfectly in the early Sunday slate in Week 17 for the Titans in terms of picking No. 1 overall; they lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars, and the New York Giants won to join them on three wins. The first pick always goes to the team with the lowest winning percentage, and there are now four teams with three wins.
If two teams are tied on winning percentage, the first NFL Draft tiebreaker for draft position is strength of schedule (SOS), with the team with the lowest SOS picking higher. The Titans are currently second in the NFL Draft order, behind the New England Patriots.
Tennessee’s 0.511 SOS is higher than the Patriots’ (0.469) and lower than the Browns (0.539) and Giants (0.550). The problem for Tennessee is that the difference between them and the Patriots in SOS is unassailable, so they need New England to win Week 18, while they do not win against the Houston Texans.
If the Patriots win and get to four wins, the Titans would be in a great spot if they lose. The highest their SOS can get to is 0.526, while the lowest the Browns or Giants can achieve is 0.526.
What makes this intriguing is that the Patriots, Titans, and Giants are all potentially going to be facing backups in Week 18. All three of their respective opponents could be locked into their seeding position and resting players ahead of a Wild Card Weekend playoff game, greatly increasing the chances that those three teams could win in Week 18.
In contrast, the Browns and Jaguars are unlikely to face backups. The Browns will face the Baltimore Ravens, who need to win to clinch the AFC North. Equally, the Jaguars will face the Colts in a game that has no consequence, so both teams are expected to play their starting options. We could see both the Colts and Jaguars choose to shut down anyone with injuries, which may weaken both sides, but there is no reason to rest starters.