The Tennessee Titans will travel across the country to take on the Los Angeles Chargers (-7.5, 39) in Week 10.
Below is my final pick for the game. Note that all odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Nov. 7, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated otherwise. If you’re looking for other games, check out our final NFL Week 10 Picks and Predictions for the entire slate.
Pick: Under 39
This is the third straight week I am riding the Chargers under and the second straight for the Titans. As we have said before, bad offenses and good defenses equal unders. The Chargers have both — one of, if not the best, defenses in football and a typical Jim Harbaugh 3 yards and a cloud of dust offense.
There’s one team in the NFL that has yet to give up more than 20 points in a game, and it’s this Chargers defense. LA is allowing 12.6 points per game, which is the best in the NFL, while at the same time, only scoring 19.9 per game.
As we noted last week when playing the under against the Patriots, the Titans offense is ranked 27th in yards per game, 31st in passing, 27th in scoring, and 29th in PFN’s Offense + metric.
We were betting last week that the Titans’ defense allowing 86 points in weeks 7-8 was because it was against Josh Allen and Jared Goff and were correct as they held the Patriots in check. The Chargers offense won’t do that much damage, either.
Not one Chargers game has reached 40 points this season, with only one getting to this listed number of 39. All 3 Chargers home games have gone under, with each going under by at least 7.5 points.
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Titans vs. Chargers Game Stats and Insights
Tennessee Titans
Team: The Titans are allowing a league-low 1.75 deep completions per game this season (the Chargers rank 24th in deep passes completed per game, 2.50).
QB: Over the past two weeks, Mason Rudolph is averaging 12 yards per completion. In Week 9, per our QB+ metric, he graded out better than Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen.
Offense: Tennessee is turning the ball over a league-high 2.13 times per game this season.
Defense: The Titans own the sixth best defense in the league in terms of success rate (62.1%).
Fantasy: The Titans are a tough watch, but Tony Pollard’s role is nothing short of elite – he has multiple catches in every game and at least 16 carries in seven of eight.
Betting: The Titans went 0-2 ATS on the road in October and are 2-9 ATS on the road over their past 11 – both of those covers came against the Dolphins. They are not playing the Dolphins this week.
Los Angeles Chargers
Team: The Chargers continue to flirt with it, but they’ve yet to see 40 points scored in a game this season (32-39 points scored in all four games since the Week 5 bye).
QB: Justin Herbert has 910 passing yards over his past three games (first five games: 815 passing yards).
Offense: This season, the Chargers are 5-0 when they clear 15 points.
Defense: By total defensive EPA, the Chargers are the best defense in the league (18% better than the second-place Minnesota Vikings).
Fantasy: J.K. Dobbins is averaging 13.8 yards per carry on touchdowns this season and 4.5 on carries that don’t end up in the end zone.
Betting: Unders are 9-2 in the Chargers’ past 11 home games (3-0 this season, with each of those games going under the total by at least 7.5 points).