It’s Week 17, and for fantasy football leagues, it means you’re playing for the championship title, or if you’re in leagues that go to Week 18, you’re fighting for a chance to play in the championship game. You either win or go home — it’s as simple as that.
There are always plenty of questions about who to start and who to sit in your lineups. Below, we’ve provided analysis for every fantasy-relevant tight end in every game this weekend.
If you’re looking for all positions, head to our Week 16 Fantasy Football Start-Sit Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Brock Bowers | LV (at NO)
On Sunday, Bowers joined Evan Engram (2023) and Zach Ertz (2018) as the only tight ends in the 2000s to have four double-digit-catch games in a season. That’s not a “rookie TE” list; it includes everyone in the position.
We thought Bowers (nine top-five finishes this season) would be a dynasty difference-maker, but not many had him penciled in as an elite Day 1 option in sub-optimal passing conditions due to this roster. You’re playing him with the utmost confidence to round out this season and moving forward — the part I’m struggling with is labeling his ceiling.
Given the explosion we’ve seen from Terry McLaurin this season, his first with above-average QB play, I’m tempted to give Bowers borderline historic potential if/when the Raiders improve their quarterback room.
Cade Otton | TB (vs. CAR)
Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, December 29
Otton was ruled out on Friday
Cade Otton sat out last week with a knee injury, and Baker Mayfield suffered. He suffered so much that he threw for north of 300 yards with a pair of touchdowns and completed 72.1% of his passes.
I’m going to keep saying it: Otton isn’t a reliable fantasy option when Mike Evans is on the field, nor does he impact the direction of this unit in a meaningful way. It’s really that simple. I write a million words weekly, and I just keep copy-pasting that intro until the higher-ups tell me that no one is consuming the Otton portion of this article.
With Mike Evans on the field in 2024:
- 14.1% on-field target share
- 19.5% red-zone target rate
- 4.3 aDOT
Without Mike Evans on the field in 2024:
- 21.1% on-field target share
- 30% red-zone target rate
- 7,3 aDOT
Otton hauled in a pass on Tampa Bay’s second attempt in Week 15, a blowout win over the Chargers, and guess what?
I didn’t blink, and you shouldn’t have either. I’m a selfish person, and I can’t fade a player I don’t roster, so I’ve taken to betting his under on receptions of late to leverage the rampant hype. I laddered his total down as low as my sportsbooks would let me.
Unless you play in a points-per-snap league, Otton’s status ahead of Week 17 isn’t one you should be worried about.
Chig Okonkwo | TEN (at JAX)
This is why we love fantasy. And why we hate it.
Chig Okonkwo, the same Chig Okonkwo who did not account for a single one of the 707 performances in which a player had 20+ receiving yards in a game through Week 6, is the top-scoring tight end over the past two weeks.
I’ll take the pain to another level and let you know that his 33 PPR points that could have been had for free on the waiver wire are more than Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce combined, a duo you could have used the first two picks of your draft this summer to acquire.
Of course, I don’t think this is sticky, but he does lead the team receptions with Mason Rudolph under center – one more than Calvin Ridley on 41 fewer routes. The bar is low at the position and the matchup is right (the Jaguars are the only team allowing 8+ yards per pass this season) for Okonkwo to move onto the TE1 radar and be trusted as the premier streaming option if he is still available.
Dalton Kincaid | BUF (vs. NYJ)
Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, December 29
Kincaid is active for today's game.
The Bills got caught in a battle with the Patriots last week. You’d think that would mean an unleashing of Dalton Kincaid one week after he returned to action in a limited capacity.
No dice. The second-year tight end was on the field for just 32.8% of Buffalo’s snaps (Week 15 at DET: 47.1%), a usage pattern that has me more scared than his target rate (seven on 14 routes) has me encouraged as this season comes down the home stretch.
I don’t want to speak in absolutes, but I do think I’m going to be more interested in this profile than you. For next season. Kincaid was able to earn a 30.4% target share in Week 6 against the Jets, which is proof of concept when it comes to winning against this defense. But Buffalo could be out of the mix for the one seed by kickoff. With limited motivation, I’m not overly optimistic that they will extend his snap share to a point where I’m comfortable.
Kincaid is currently my TE15 this week, checking in behind names like Chig Okonkwo and Brenton Strange, two options you very much could have had (and might still be able to get) off of your waiver wire.
David Njoku | CLE (vs. MIA)
Updated at 2:35 PM ET on Sunday, December 29
Njoku is inactive for today's game.
Njoku couldn’t practice all week due to a hamstring injury, and while the team listed him as “questionable” until Sunday, he seemed like a long shot to play all week.
His practice habits this week were worth monitoring, especially with this a lost season for the Browns. They need all of their key options healthy to open next season as they (presumably) intend to go back to the well-compensated Deshaun Watson under center.
Dawson Knox | BUF (vs. NYJ)
Dawson Knox saw his last chance at value this fantasy season come and go without much more than a whimper in Week 15 as Dalton Kincaid (knee) returned to action.
He had a pair of chunk gains, something that seemingly everyone who played in the Bills/Lions shootout can claim. Outside of that, it was a lot of nothing and certainly not enough to give me any level of confidence that his fantasy stock can survive as Kincaid is worked back into his full-time role.
Over the past three weeks, with the Bills scoring 114 points and Kincaid either out or at less than full strength, Knox has turned 75 routes into 69 touchdown-less yards.
George Kittle | SF (vs. DET)
The 49ers’ offense is caving in on itself a bit, but that means that their remaining stars get the type of usage we need. Deebo Samuel Sr. is coming off of his first five-target, five-carry game since Week 1, and George Kittle had his first game of 2024 in which he had at least eight targets AND 100 yards.
This is a concentrated offense at a high level, and even if you think Brock Purdy is ordinary, the raw talent of the two players he is funneling the ball to make them assets you can trust.
I very much worry about the scoring equity of this offense, and that is why I’m avoiding them in those exotic prime-time sorts of DFS slates when possible (Detroit is the best red-zone defense in terms of opponent completion percentage), but for season-long, Kittle is a great bet to finish among the top three at the position in targets, and that means you’re starting him.
Grant Calcaterra TE | PHI (vs. DAL)
Right idea.
Fantasy is very much a game of opportunity, and when the Dallas Goedert injury opened the door for a one-to-one replacement in terms of role, Grant Calcaterra was a pretty reasonable add.
From a process standpoint, you weren’t wrong. He’s played over 88% of the snaps and three straight games, running 92 routes in the process. The problem is that instead of keeping Goedert’s role in-house at the TE position, they’ve (logically) elected to load up their star receivers with looks.
In those three games, Calcaterra’s 92 routes have yielded just 38 yards and only a single target over the past two weeks. I could alert you that the Cowboys own the worst red-zone defense in the league (75% touchdown rate, 36-of-48) in an effort to sell you on him as a streamer, but I’m not going to do that.
Well, I guess I just did. I’m arming you with information that I’m choosing to ignore in this instance. Either Jalen Hurts is a full go, and he soaks up a ton of red-zone usage, or he sits, and this team struggles to get to the red zone at their season rate (3.9 per game, sixth most).
Jake Ferguson | DAL (at PHI)
There was some momentum building in Jake Ferguson’s statistical profile ahead of Sunday night, but his 36% on-field target share against the Buccaneers was downright impressive.
We are well past the point where he is a lineup lock, so I don’t mind grabbing the elevated floor that he offers, even if there isn’t much of a ceiling to chase. Last week against Tampa Bay, his nine targets netted just 12 air yards, but that role resulted in six catches and a double-digit performance, which will work with regularity.
The idea of Ferguson is strong. He’d slide into the back end of my TE1 rankings in a neutral matchup, and I’d pick him over all waiver wire options. Sadly, this week is not that.
The Eagles allow the lowest completion percentage and the fewest yards per pass attempt on those short throws, which puts Ferguson managers in a bind. They have to rely more than they want to on a touchdown, a tough ask for a player who hasn’t earned an end-zone target since Week 1.
He currently sits outside of my top 12 at the position and is more likely to fall outside of my top 15 by kickoff than move into that TE1 tier.
Ja’Tavion Sanders | CAR (at TB)
The potential is there for Ja’Tavion Sanders to develop alongside Bryce Young, and that’s going to have my attention in the 2025 redraft prep. I think there’s a lot to like in the rookie season, but not with your season on the line after consecutive goose eggs.
This season, just one of his 271 routes has earned an end-zone target. With seven instances in which a single-digit on-field target share was posted (zero targets on 21 routes in Week 16), the floor is too low to garner serious interest as a streaming candidate.
Jonnu Smith | MIA (at CLE)
Since 2021, Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Jonnu Smith are the only tight ends with a dozen PPR points in six straight games. I’m not calling him Tom Brady, but like the GOAT, Smith is breaking all sorts of age curves.
An age-29 career year?
At this point in the season, I’m past asking questions and just impressed by the profile. Smith has earned at least a 24% share of targets when he’s on the field in four of his past five games and has found stability in this quick-strike offense.
Smith’s athletic gifts were initially his calling card, but with just three games of 50+ air yards, I like his fit in Miami’s offense more than the hope for him to make a play down the field. We are looking at one of the cheat codes for successful fantasy teams in 2024—there’s no reason to shy away now with your season on the line!
Juwan Johnson | NO (vs. LV)
Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, December 29
Johnson is active for today's game
Juwan Johnson caught both of his targets on Monday night (27 yards), but a 7.1% target share in a Spencer Rattler offense is far from ideal. To complicate matters further, Foster Moreau led the team in receiving with a whopping 33 yards.
Jordan Mims and Dante Pettis accounted for most of New Orleans’ targets, so there’s a world in which the target hierarchy flips this week, but are we sure it matters? Those two saw their 15 targets total 47 yards — that’s not going to get it done.
Before the Week 16 disaster, Johnson had three straight championship window games (Weeks 16-17) with over 11 PPR points. That streak ended on Monday, and it’s possible that he didn’t score 11 PPR points in those two weeks this season.
Kyle Pitts | ATL (at WAS)
The quarterback change in Atlanta was met with “Hey, it can’t get any worse” analysis for most, and that premise was fine. In fact, I agree with it. But “can’t get any worse” and “will get better” are not the same, and Kyle Pitts’ fantasy managers were reminded of that last week.
I thought Michael Penix Jr. was fine in his first career start, but that didn’t mean a damn thing for his tight end. For the eighth time this season, Pitts averaged under a yard per route and is quickly becoming an expensive version of Cardio Cade Otton.
Much like the Bucs’ tight end, I guess it’s within the realm of possibilities that Pitts could have him a moment in the sun should a role open up (à la Chris Godwin’s injury in Tampa Bay), but he’s pretty clearly a read-and-react option moving forward than he is a hold-and-hope one.
Sam LaPorta | DET (at SF)
At this point, Sam LaPorta isn’t going to cash in on our preseason hype, but he is trending in a strong direction at the right time. I think that stands to make this season a success for those who spent up early on him.
- Weeks 1-9: 3.3 targets per game (23rd among TEs)
- Weeks 10-16: 7.0 targets per game (seventh among TEs)
The volume is finally there, and it really hasn’t come at the cost of his teammates. LaPorta has reached double figures in PPR points in four straight games. With the Lions’ defense banged up at every level, I’m confident that this offense is going to be pushed consistently.
He may not have a clear path to being the top producer at the position right now, but he deserves to be locked in without a second thought.
T.J. Hockenson | MIN (vs. GB)
Since his return, T.J. Hockenson hasn’t been all that impactful. That isn’t surprising, but the “how” behind it has been.
It’s Jordan Addison.
After a pair of ramp-up weeks, the Vikings got their tight end up to where they appear to be content with in terms of snap share (mid-60 %). He hasn’t had any setbacks that would lead me to believe that limitations or aggravation are to blame for 7.3 PPR points per game in December.
The emergence of Addison has simply made Hockenson’s role less advantageous. His on-field target share is down three percentage points from a season ago. With an aDOT that is up 15.8%, that brings into the equation two-for-27 stinkers like what we saw over the weekend in Seattle.
I fear that it’s possible we moved, rather quickly, from Tier 1 TJ to The Goedert Zone. In Philadelphia for the past three seasons, they’ve had a pair of strong receivers, and while their tight end served a purpose, he wasn’t the same asset he was before (14.8 yards per catch in 2021 and 11.4 since the acquisition of A.J. Brown).
It’s hard to make three pass catchers viable on a consistent basis, and the Vikings seem to be leaving heavily in favor of a 22-year-old former first-round pick over a tight end in his sixth season after a serious injury.
I can’t say I blame them. I also can’t say that I’d be overly comfortable in starting Hockenson this week. I’ve got him sitting at TE11 right now, just ahead of Brenton Strange but behind Chig Okonkwo and Dalton Schultz.
Tucker Kraft, | GB (at MIN)
Updated at 2:55 PM ET on Sunday, December 29
Kraft is active for today's game.
Tucker Kraft was fantasy’s second-best tight end for a month-long stretch (Weeks 5-8 in non-PPR7 in PPR). Let this production curve serve as a reminder of the risk that comes with streaming the position.
I’ll cover it more this offseason, but if you’re going to piece together a position, you have to fully commit to it. It was easy to fall in love with the production, and I have no problem with holding on a week or two too long. But based on the questions I was getting around Kraft, many held on way too long.
From Weeks 6-12, he had one game with an on-field target share of over 12.1%. One. There were some strong box-score numbers, but an underlying trend like that (something you’re in a position to be aware of because you’re checking out PFN content daily!) should have you proceed with caution.
One final note here, outside of not playing Kraft with any level of confidence — buy in. Your plan was to stream the position, and thus, you’re confident in your ability to do so. Assuming that’s the case, you have an edge in your league and would be wise to maximize it.
So, why not sell Kraft during a run like he was having? Worst case, you’re selling him for a price that is close to his value, but the reward for getting out from underneath an unsustainable profile early can result in big gains (could you have gotten Jordan Addison or Jauan Jennings for him during that run?).
Tyler Conklin | NYJ (at BUF)
In his first game as a father, Tyler Conklin caught five passes (his most since Week 5) and increased his expected point total for a fourth straight game.
Baby swag?
Doubt it.
While he is constantly on the field, I’m going to need to see more evidence that he is a capable target earner at this level before assuming it. Before last week, Conklin was averaging a reception once every 11.6 routes this season. Let’s do some quick, back-of-the-napkin math.
- Jets offense: 39.2 dropbacks per game
- Bills defense: 37.8 opponent dropbacks per game
- Conklin’s season: 83.8% snap share
Take the average of the first two and apply Conklin’s season rate and we are looking at 32-33 routes. Based on his rates before Sunday, that leads to a sub-three-catch projection, and that’s a fade in all formats for me.
Zach Ertz | WAS (vs. ATL)
Week 17 Status: PLAYING
Concussion protocol had Zach Ertz labeled as iffy last week and him being inactive would have saved us all. Instead, the veteran suited up and played a full role, giving us just a single catch (36 routes) in the exciting win over the Eagles.
Ertz ended November with three straight games of 7+ targets, which suckered me into thinking he was ready to emerge as the secondary pass-catching option in this offense behind Terry McLaurin, but that dream appears dead at this point.
That’s now back-to-back-to-back-to-back games in which his yardage total has regressed, a trend that is too strong to overlook for average scoring equity.
I’m confident that the Commanders will be able to score, and it might well come through the air against a defense that allows the league’s highest red zone completion percentage. However, pinning down where Jayden Daniels is going to distribute the ball has proven to be a fool’s errand (eight different Washington players have a touchdown reception this season).