It’s Week 15, and for the majority of fantasy football leagues, it means it’s playoff time. For others, it’s the last week before the playoffs begin.
Whichever kind of league you’re in, there are always plenty of questions about who to start and who to sit in your lineups. Below, we’ve provided analysis for every fantasy-relevant tight end in every game this weekend.
If you’re looking for all positions, head to our Week 15 Fantasy Football Start-Sit Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Brenton Strange | JAX (vs. NYJ)
Brenton Strange may not be the name you thought you’d be counting on this time of year, but that doesn’t make it wrong. The 23-year-old has cleared 9.0 PPR points in all three games this season when he’s run 20+ routes, a near certainty this week and moving forward with Evan Engram (labrum) done for the season.
The Jets matchup isn’t ideal, but they are one of two defenses yet to intercept a short pass and rank 21st in red zone defense. It’s unlikely to be a high-volume day, but 4-6 targets are possible, and if the game script works in his favor, a scoring chance gives him a top-15 appeal free of cost on your waiver wire.
Brock Bowers | LV (vs. ATL)
It has seemed inevitable for a while, and now it’s official — Brock Bowers is your rookie TE record holder for receptions. He didn’t give you the stat line you’re used to in Week 14 (3-49-0), but there’s nothing to do here besides start the elite talent and consider yourself lucky to do so.
This Aidan O’Connell injury is one to watch (27% on-field target share for Bowers with him under center), but not to the level where you’re starting a lesser player on Sunday over Bowers with an unknown QB on Monday night.
This offense is always going to carry risk, but a weather-proof game, on extended rest, against a defense that just coughed up 347 yards and five scores to Sam Darnold on 28 attempts — you’re not getting cute with your season on the line.
Cade Otton | TB (at LAC)
I’m going to keep saying it: Cade Otton isn’t a reliable fantasy option when Mike Evans is on the field. It’s really that simple.
With Mike Evans on the field, 2024:
- 14.7% on-field target share
- 21.6% red-zone target rate
- 4.3 aDOT
Without Mike Evans on the field, 2024:
- 21.1% on-field target share
- 30% red-zone target rate
- 6.9 aDOT
Otton had a chunk play over the weekend (44 yards), and that’s great, but he did little to change my stance — he’s not someone I’m banking on as long as this offense is reasonably healthy. The Chargers have allowed a league-low 4.6 yards per catch after the reception this season; Tampa Bay’s tight end doesn’t grace my top 15 this week.
Cole Kmet | CHI (at MIN)
Risk is a funny thing. It’s kind of like dessert. If the upside is good enough, I’m willing to overlook the high-calorie count or potential health ramifications.
But why take that on if the best case isn’t enough to put a smile on my face? Cole Kmet is a player who needs a touchdown to pay off. That’s a tough sell when you consider that he doesn’t have a single end-zone look during Chicago’s seven-game skid. He’s an Oreo Sundae without ice cream … What’s the point?
He has just three catches for 26 yards to show for his 67 routes run over the past two games. With the receivers taking turns flashing, there’s not nearly enough target upside to even consider Kmet as a realistic option in most situations.
Dallas Goedert | PHI (vs. PIT)
Dallas Goedert has been placed on injured reserve with a knee injury, and while he plays an important role in a potent offense, there’s no reason to tie up a roster spot in holding out hope for a return when first eligible in Week 17.
We saw Goedert earn looks down the stretch of last season and score in the playoff loss to the Buccaneers. I’m not against looking in this direction for playoff-oriented fantasy drafts presuming he shows us health in the final two weeks of the regular season, but for standard fantasy leaguers who were counting on Philadelphia’s tight end … welcome to the land of the tight end streamers!
Dalton Kincaid | BUF (at DET)
Dalton Kincaid has now missed three consecutive games due to a knee injury, and while I typically project a return to action before a fourth missed game in instances like this (if he was going to miss four games, the Bills could have opened up a roster spot by placing him on IR a month ago), I’m not sure we get that this week.
The Bills are still technically alive for the top seed in the AFC, but that seems like a fleeting dream after they gave up a game in the standings last week. Barring a dramatic shift in reporting, I’m not banking on having Kincaid as a full-go this week. And for a player who is more than 300 days separated from his last game with 55 receiving yards, can you really justify playing a compromised version of him with your season on the line?
Dalton Schultz | HOU (vs. MIA)
It may not seem like much, but Dalton Schultz has been the better of the Dalton tight ends this season, and it hasn’t been close. Houston’s tight end has been a top-15 performer at the position in three of his past four games, a level of production that isn’t going to swing matchups, but can save you from complete disaster.
There is, of course, a risk profile here that you have to consider and that is why he is available in some spots and ranked outside of the top-10. Schultz has but one end-zone target this season (Week 6) and hasn’t reached 50 air yards in a contest since Halloween.
For me, I’m comfortable going in this direction if pushed. Tank Dell is averaging just 47 yards with a 52% catch rate over the past month, leaving the door open for Schultz to be, consistently, C.J. Stroud’s second option in a passing game with top-10 upside.
For me, he’s not much different than a Mark Andrews or Pat Freiermuth in that regard – a profile that ranks as a low-end TE1 in a game that could see plenty of points scored.
David Njoku | CLE (vs. KC)
The Patrick Mahomes/Travis Kelce connection is art and the versatility of Trey McBride is special, but the raw athleticism of David Njoku makes him as appealing as anyone at the position despite a quarterback situation that can only be described as semi-organized chaos these days.
He flashed that potential with a late 15-yard touchdown grab over the weekend, propelling him to his second top-five finish at the position for a second straight game (and the third time in four contests). Njoku’s red zone and slot usage have spiked, two parts of a role that I weigh heavier than most.
I’m sorry, but nothing attached to Jameis Winston can be labeled as a Tier 1 asset. That said, Njoku is very much in the second tier at the tight end position and is my highest-ranked tight end in this game.
Dawson Knox | BUF (at DET)
Dawson Knox has assumed the Dalton Kincaid role, posting a snap share north of 81% in two of the starter’s three DNPs. From a spreadsheet-only point of view, the case for streaming a player like this is reasonably straightforward — he’s tethered to Josh Allen in an offense without much in the way of alpha target earners.
Of course, our game is played on the field and that is where this profile loses some traction. Last week, in a shootout that was played without Keon Coleman (wrist) and with QB1 wearing the Superman cape, Knox’s 29 routes resulted in one very forced target. His only look against the Rams was a screen pass that came two yards behind the line of scrimmage, not exactly a showcase of him being able to win a route.
If Kincaid returns this week, I don’t think you’re playing either Buffalo tight end; and if Kincaid doesn’t return this week, I don’t think you’re playing either Buffalo tight end. The Lions own a top-five defense in terms of YAC yards allowed and opponent completion percentage — the idea of Knox is far more appealing than the realistic application of him.
Evan Engram | JAX (vs. NYJ)
Backup quarterbacks around the league are tanking pass-catcher play, but that’s really not the case in Jacksonville when it comes to Evan Engram’s splits
With Mac Jones, 2024:
- 28.7% on-field target share
- 26.7% red-zone target rate
- 5.6 average depth of target
With Trevor Lawrence, 2024:
- 24.6% on-field target share
- 10% red-zone target rate
- 6.0 average depth of target
I conveniently used rate stats to mask the fact that Engram has turned 29 Jones targets into just 139 touchdown-less yards this season. It’s my article, I’m allowed to bend numbers how I see fit and this is one of those instances.
Engram was in the slot for 41.5% of his routes last week, a season-high, and when you combine that with a Jets defense that is nothing more than average on balls thrown 10+ yards down the field, there’s enough of a projectable floor here to start him with confidence.
George Kittle | SF (vs. LAR)
With the young star power at the tight end position and the general struggles of the 49ers, is it possible that George Kittle’s season has been a bit overlooked up to this point?
His first target last week against the Bears resulted in a 33-yard reception (the fifth time in six games he’s had a 30-yard gain), and when all was said and done, he cleared 125 receiving yards for the second time this year,
Top-10 TE finishes, 2024:
- Kittle: 10
- Trey McBride: Nine
- Brock Bowers: Eight
Kittle was inactive for San Francisco’s first game against Los Angeles, but that didn’t stop Brock Purdy from dominating (292 yards and three scores on 30 pass attempts). If that form reappears this week with the 49ers’ season on the brink, Kittle has a good chance to pace the position in scoring this weekend.
Grant Calcaterra TE | PHI (vs. PIT)
Grant Calcaterra was on the field for 91.1% of Philadelphia’s offensive snaps against the Panthers last week, a role that should be his for the next three weeks at a minimum with Dallas Goedert on injured reserve.
He’s an efficient player (20 catches on 23 targets this season with a 6.3-yard aDOT) and that creates an avenue to production, but you need to be aware that this is a thin profile due to the nature of this offense.
The Eagles own the highest rush rate over expectation this year. And with both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith healthy (52.6% combined target share in Week 14), the risk far outweighs the reward. If I’m chasing production on the waiver wire this week, give me Chig Okonkwo (vs. CIN) or Juwan Johnson (vs.WAS) – it’s not close.
Hunter Henry | NE (at ARI)
Hunter Henry celebrated his 30th birthday on Saturday and enters this week having earned at least eight targets in each of his past three games (Trey McBride is the only other TE who can claim such an active streak).
The quality of those targets is, naturally, a concern. Henry hasn’t had a chunk play (20+ yards) since the team returned from its London date with the Jaguars and his 63.3% catch rate over the past month isn’t exactly a floor elevator. In a PPR setting, you can stream this direction, as it is very possible that he was cut during the bye week.
The Cardinals allow opponents to complete 69.4% of passes (fourth highest), a defensive flaw that should bring double-digit fantasy points into the conversation.
I have Henry ranked outside of my top 12 (one touchdown this season), but he’s easily ahead of Kyle Pitts, Cade Otton, and Cole Kmet this week.
Isaiah Likely | BAL (at NYG)
Isaiah Likely saw his involvement spike in Week 13 before the bye (five catches on eight targets against the Eagles with a touchdown) and with an elite athletic profile, that level of involvement requires our analysis.
I really want to speak Likely into happening, but I think that’s going to be more of an offseason project than one during the playoffs. All of those looks netted just 38 yards against Philadelphia, leaving him with just one 50-yard game since he burst onto the scene with a 9-111-1 season opener against the Chiefs.
Through 14 weeks, Likely has a 58% snap share and 19% on-field target rate, a profile that doesn’t land him in the streaming range with Mark Andrews being used with regularity in scoring situations.
Jake Ferguson | DAL (at CAR)
Jake Ferguson returned to action on Monday night, and while a three-catch, 32-yard performance isn’t going to jump off the page, I thought he looked reasonably healthy — a 76.3% snap share indicates optimism moving forward.
Cooper Rush has thrown over 30 passes in four consecutive starts; while the plurality of targets goes in the direction of CeeDee Lamb, there’s plenty of room for a secondary pass catcher to assume enough of a role to matter.
Ferguson isn’t a lock to pick up that role, but I’d make him the favorite to do so. That makes him a low-end TE1 against the worst-scoring defense in the league (29.9 PPG).
Ja’Tavion Sanders | CAR (vs. DAL)
The potential is there for Ja’Tavion Sanders to develop alongside Bryce Young, and that’s going to have my attention in the 2025 redraft prep. I think there’s a lot to like in the rookie, but not with your season on the line.
This season, just one of his 233 routes has earned an end-zone target. With five instances in which a single-digit on-field target share was posted, the floor is too low to garner our serious interest as a streaming candidate.
Jonnu Smith | MIA (at HOU)
If last week from Jonnu Smith wasn’t the embodiment of the tight end position, I don’t know what is.
The veteran tight end didn’t have a single reception during regulation against the Jets and was a non-factor for over three hours of real-time. After struggling to find any room to operate through four quarters, Smith dominated the overtime period with three catches on eight Miami plays as they kept their playoff hopes alive courtesy of, you guessed it, a 10-yard Smith score.
The veteran tight end has cleared 13 PPR points in four straight games for the first time in his career and has proven capable of earning consistent looks in an offense that has scored 30+ points in three of their past four.
Do I worry that there is a floor to consider here with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle both getting on track last week? I do, but his usage in scoring situations for an underdog with an implied point total of over 20 points is enough for him to crack my top 10 this week and for the remainder of the fantasy season.
Juwan Johnson | NO (vs. WAS)
Juwan Johnson had a 30-yard completion in the first quarter last week and was later left uncovered for an 11-yard touchdown. No one is going to fill the void left by Taysom Hill and the injury to Derek Carr further complicates this situation, but without reliable options, Johnson’s 63 games of NFL experience make him a good bet to, at the very least, see consistent usage.
Johnson has scored on 9% of his career targets, a role that seems not only safe (three straight games with a red-zone reception) but valuable this week against the fourth-worst red-zone defense in the NFL. New Orleans’ tight end checks behind Hunter Henry and Zach Ertz – though he is on that tier and a viable streaming option in deeper formats or a reasonable DFS punt play.
Kyle Pitts | ATL (at LV)
When growing up, did you sometimes get so angry at a sibling, cousin, or pet that your emotions came out as laughter instead of anything violent? Like, a weird chuckle that sort of resembled a villain in a horror movie, where it was clear that the frustration was bubbling beneath the surface and just manifesting itself in an odd, nightmare-inducing cackle?
That’s about where we are in the Kyle Pitts experience. Over his past three games, the former Gator has run 82 routes and turned them into just 11 targets and 23 yards.
Gross.
Over the past 20 seasons, there have been three instances in which a tight end ran over 25 routes and earned multiple targets but failed to clear 15 receiving yards in three straight games
- Levine Toilolo (2014)
- Cameron Brate (2021)
- Pitts (2024, active)
Is that an oddly specific list? Of course, it is, but I don’t think you’d argue that it is an oddly specific way to highlight ineptitude at the highest of levels and that is what we are looking at here.
Harness the feelings you have toward Pitts right now and I’ll do the same. Together, we can resist the urge to go back to the well in August.
I hope.
Luke Schoonmaker | DAL (at CAR)
Luke Schoonmaker saw streamable volume when Jake Ferguson was on the shelf (20 targets and a touchdown across three games), but his snap share cratered to 39% on Monday night with the starter back on the field, and that simply isn’t enough of a role in a bottom-10 offense.
You’re streaming the position, and that means not hesitating to move on — Schoonmaker shouldn’t be rostered in any formats.
Mark Andrews | BAL (at NYG)
Mark Andrews has found his footing as a fantasy producer after a slow start, saving managers from a complete waste of a mid-round pick this summer.
Since Week 6, despite ranking tied for 13th at the position in targets, Andrews has two more touchdowns than any other tight end (seven). As a result, he’s been a top-eight producer in three of his past four games and a top-12 play in six of eight. The touchdowns are one thing, but the 73.2% snap share in Week 13 (his second-highest of the season) is what has my attention.
The veteran tight end has caught 78.8% of his targets over his past seven games and has established himself as the TE1 in this elite offense. Of course, that doesn’t make him as bulletproof of an option in years past, especially with a peaking aDOT that introduces new variance into the equation.
Andrews is my TE10 this week, a ranking that is fueled by Baltimore’s implied point total of 29.
Mike Gesicki | CIN (at TEN)
Mike Gesiciki’s status in the NFL is based on him being a plus route runner for the position, and while we’ve seen that ring true at times this season (96.8% of his snaps have seen him run a route), that’s a skill that only matters for us if he is on the field.
- Week 14 at Dallas Cowboys: 29.2% snap share
That’s a third straight game of decline; while it was a nice run, he is firmly off of the acceptable streaming radar. Chig Okonkwo and Grant Calcaterra are two options that I’d prefer without a second thought this week and moving forward.
Pat Freiermuth | PIT (at PHI)
Pat Freiermuth pulled in a 20-yard touchdown up the seam last week, giving him a score in consecutive games after being held to a single TD in his six games prior. His role has looked a bit different this season and I think it actually enhances his fantasy profile.
Entering this season, seven of Patty Football’s 11 touchdown receptions came on end-zone targets, but none of his five have this season. Pittsburgh has been more creative in getting him the rock in space, and while asking him to convert those looks into touchdowns instead of simply having him post-up brings about the potential for scoring droughts, it also results in an increase in projectable target count.
I’m expecting George Pickens to return to the field this week and his field-stretching capabilities only open up room for Freiermuth to operate between the hashes against a defense that won’t discourage Pittsburgh from taking those layup short targets (0.4% interception rate on short passes this season, the third-lowest in the league).
Freiermuth’s target heatmap (2023-24):
Sam LaPorta | DET (vs. BUF)
To call this season a grind for Sam LaPorta managers would be an understatement. We are talking about a player who we thought might be the future of the position and has just one finish better than TE8 this season.
That said, if you’ve survived up to this point, I think you’re set to be rewarded. LaPorta has earned at least six targets in four straight and four of his looks over that stretch have come with his feet planted in the end zone. Efficiency hasn’t been the issue (9% more PPR points per target this year than last) and I can’t imagine volume is a concern as the Lions, a team who peaks at home, gets to attack a Bills defense that allowed Matthew Stafford to complete 23-of-30 passes for 320 yards and two touchdowns last week.
I think you can feel safe about starting LaPorta in all formats this week and having him finally live up to something close to the value we assigned him during draft season.
T.J. Hockenson | MIN (vs. CHI)
Fantasy football this time of year, more than any point during the first three months, is about reading trends and making a stand. In Week 5, it’s easy to slow-play a positive trend, wanting to wait for a true breakout before investing, understanding that time is on your side.
We no longer have that luxury as many leagues are in the playoffs now. T.J. Hockenson has posted a snap share north of 60% in three straight games after he was worked back into a full-time role with a sub-50% share in his first three games. He’s on the field consistently in an offense that we trust more now than we did back on draft day — that gives him all sorts of potential when it comes to your willingness to be loyal to him up to this point.
READ MORE: NFL Week 15 Stats, Trends, and Insights — Fantasy, Betting, and Other Notes for Every Game
In comparing this season to last, Hockenson’s aDOT is up 11.8% without a dramatic shift in efficiency, a role that looks good on him with nothing but safe weather games to end his regular season. I’m encouraged by the spike in red-zone usage and am willing to label him as a potential league winner that you should feel great about playing.
Last week, while Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison were busy putting on a historic show, Hockenson still caught 80% of his targets, saw an end-zone look, and flirted with double-figure PPR points. If what we saw last week was something of a floor, I’m all the way in for this finishing kick as Minnesota jostles for playoff positioning.
Travis Kelce | KC (at CLE)
By normal human standards, a 100-catch pace with TE1 production in nearly 40% of games would be plenty, but Travis Kelce isn’t held to “normal human standards.” Expectations aside, we are also getting dangerously close to pumpkin time for this future Hall of Famer:
- 2023: Six straight scoreless games to end the regular season
- 2022: Six straight scoreless games to end the regular season
Under most circumstances, I wouldn’t have even looked back at those seasons for data like that, but what do those years have in common?
Super Bowls.
The Chiefs have won the big one in each of those seasons and their star tight end has been a massive reason why (612 yards and seven scores with a 86.8% catch rate during the playoffs). They were rewarded for managing him down the stretch and with some breathing room for the AFC’s top seed now, we could see something similar over the final month.
On the plus side, Kelce has touched the ball inside the 20-yard line multiple times in five of his past seven games, a usage rate that can keep him as a top-10 producer, even if the volume takes a hit coming home. He’s closer to TE10 than TE1 for the first time in a long time for me, but that doesn’t mean you must bench him.
Trey McBride | ARI (vs. NE)
I continue to rank Trey McBride over Brock Bowers and I don’t feel bad about it in season-long leagues or in dynasty. Is the profile really that different?
McBride has posted three straight top-five finishes at the position, but the production isn’t what I’m tracking. He has at least a dozen targets in each of those games (all Cardinal losses), joining Travis Kelce and Tony Gonzalez as the only tight ends with a run like that since 2000.
He’s getting all of the volume that Bowers does, but with more offensive upside, right? I’m not suggesting that this Kyler Murray-led offense comes without risk, but if you’re giving me plus-level involvement, I’m taking the Cardinals’ offensive trajectory in a meaningful game over that of the Raiders in a spot where losses hold value.
Tucker Kraft | GB (at SEA)
Tucker Kraft has given you a score in two of his past three games and, in theory, the doubling of his season-long end-zone target count last week in Detroit is encouraging.
But is there enough in this profile to project favorably? Kraft has yet to hit 40 air yards in a game and his route count is trending down (18-23 routes run in four straight games after averaging 31.8 in his previous four games).
Kraft is on the fringe of “startability,” joining other low-volume options with a quarterback we trust like Zach Ertz and Dalton Schultz.
Tyler Conklin | NYJ (at JAX)
If you liked what you saw from Aaron Rodgers on Sunday and want exposure this weekend, do so in the DFS streets. That’s a place where you can be properly rewarded for creativity – in season-long leagues, you’re simply taking on levels of risk that are difficult to justify if you’re considering Tyler Conklin at this point.
Yes, his 15.2% on-field target share last week was his best since Week 8, but with Allen Lazard working his way back to full strength and a 3-33-0 stat line to show for Rodgers’ best game in quite some time – what is the realistic ceiling that you’re targeting?
Will Dissly | LAC (vs. TB)
Will Dissly was shut out in Week 13 against the Falcons and left late in the first half over the weekend with a shoulder injury, leaving fantasy managers with very little to show for investing in him after a strong usage month.
I’m fine with moving on. The idea of betting on a good quarterback with an uncertain target hierarchy was sound, but nothing in this profile is impressive enough to overlook the current health concerns.
Zach Ertz | WAS (at NO)
I understand the idea behind being skeptical when it comes to Zach Ertz because I have been. There isn’t much single-target upside (69 tight ends have a 30-yard reception since Ertz last did) and this offense has been spotty at times, but the veteran has been nothing short of great.
For the season, he has six top-10 finishes and is filling an important role for this developing unit. He has at least five targets and a touchdown in three straight games, the first tight end at this age to do that since Antonio Gates in 2016, a trend that is strong enough to land him inside my top 15 this week.
I can’t go much higher than that (ultimately, Ertz has three games with 50 yards, the last of which came in October), but you can go this direction if you’re stuck without a stable option.