Week 14 is here, and if you’re reading this, you’re in the playoffs, fighting for a chance to make the playoffs, or you’re already eliminated but are being a good league mate and ensuring you give it your all until the playoffs begin.
As we all know, there will be plenty of questions about who to start and who to sit in your fantasy football lineups. Below, we’ve provided analysis for every fantasy-relevant tight end in every game this weekend.
If you’re looking for all positions, head to our Week 14 Fantasy Football Start-Sit Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Brock Bowers | LV (vs.TB)
Since 2000, three rookies have had three double-digit catch games: Odell Beckham Jr. (2014), Jaylen Waddle (2021), and Brock Bowers (2024). There is no shortage of ways to tell you what you’re well aware of — Vegas’ star tight end is already an alpha.
Through 13 weeks, 19 times has a qualified tight end posted an on-field target share north of 32%. Bowers has accounted for five of them.
I couldn’t resist. I had to give you some more crazy numbers. Bowers is breaking the mold of rookie players at the position, and he has every chance to be a league winner with the Falcons, Jaguars, and Saints on the docket after this weekend.
Cade Otton | TB (vs. LV)
I’m going to keep saying it: Cade Otton isn’t a reliable fantasy option when Mike Evans is on the field. It’s really that simple.
With Mike Evans on the field, 2024:
- 14.8% on-field target share
- 22.9% red-zone target rate
- 3.4 aDOT
Without Mike Evans on the field, 2024:
- 21.5% on-field target share
- 30% red-zone target rate
- 6.9 aDOT
Otton has turned 18 targets into just 85 yards (and no touchdowns) over his past three games, struggles that I’m happy to bet on sustaining both this week and moving forward. He’s a streaming option at best moving forward, not the lineup lock that too many managers still label him as.
Cole Kmet | CHI (at SF)
The target distribution patterns are starting to take shape in Chicago, and that’s not good news when it comes to managers hoping that Cole Kmet can scratch across enough volume to matter.
Literally, anything in the world can happen one time. Outliers are a part of our game. If you remove the bizarre 10-target Week 12 loss to the Vikings, Kmet’s past five games have seen him turn 164 routes into 11 targets. That’s not going to get it done without high-end scoring equity, something that no one in this offense holds (KMet hasn’t scored since Chicago returned from London).
That outlier game against Minnesota is the only time since Week 3 in which Kmet earned more than five targets. Of the TEs on your waiver wire, most of them have a trait I trust. Be it the overall offensive environment, raw talent, or role — I’d argue that Kmet checks zero of those boxes.
Dallas Goedert | PHI (vs. CAR)
Dallas Goedert has seen four end-zone targets in his four games back from injury and is essentially back to his full-time role.
That’s the good. The bad is the nature of this offense — even with a strong snap share, Goedert has failed to run 20 routes in consecutive games, something that caps his production in a significant way.
If the route/target count only has so much room to impress, efficiency is going to have to be the name of the game for Goedert to pay off being trusted by fantasy managers. For the season, his 82.6% catch rate is a good start, though I worry that his last seven receptions have gained just 54 yards.
If you thought Philadelphia was run-heavy last week (33 rush attempts against 19 passes) in Baltimore, what do you think is going to happen with Carolina coming to town?
For me, this is a DeVonta Smith discussion. The burner sat out last week (hamstring), and if that’s the case again on Sunday, I think you can get away with starting Goedert. If not, and this is where I currently lean with Smith not being far from suiting up last week, Goedert slips below my comfort tier and resides in the streamer range at the position.
Dalton Kincaid | BUF (at LAR)
Dalton Kincaid has missed consecutive games with a knee injury. Given the lack of previous production, it’s hard to go back to Buffalo’s tight end until we get proof of full health.
His struggles through two months have lost Kincaid the benefit of the doubt that a strong rookie campaign earned him. This year, he’s yet to reach 55 yards a single time and only has two scores on his ledger despite the potency of this offense,
In theory, I still like the idea of Kincaid and what he offers to this team, but we’ve yet to see him thrive in 2024, and the role is at risk as the receivers trend toward full strength. I’m an optimist at heart and am holding, but I don’t see an avenue to playing him with confidence this weekend, even with six teams on a bye.
Post-hype option in 2025?
David Njoku | CLE (at PIT)
David Njoku was one of five Browns to see 4-6 targets in the Week 12 meeting with the Steelers, spread-out usage that seems likely to again be the case in this spot with Pittsburgh’s defense requiring offenses to be creative (unless you have Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins on your roster, then you can do whatever you want).
If Njoku isn’t getting weighed down with elite usage, I worry about his upside. We got a glimpse of the floor that is present in an inconsistent offense facing off against an elite defense (Njoku turned those five targets into nine yards), a range of outcomes that isn’t very appealing.
The physical profile of Njoku gives him the potential to make any single target worth your loyalty, and that’s enough to start him in season-long formats, but I’m not tempted to look this way in the DFS streets.
Dawson Knox | BUF (at LAR)
Dawson Knox has been making splash plays over his past three games (136 yards on eight catches), and that’s not a bad profile to take into a matchup against EPA’s ninth-worst pass defense this season.
It goes without saying that Knox’s value is tied to the status of Dalton Kincaid. With the young tight end healthy to open the season, Knox didn’t reach 20 routes run for the first time until November. That means he’s not worth a spot on your roster if he’s filling the TE2 role, but should he get another week atop the depth chart, he can again serve as a viable option.
Evan Engram | JAX (at TEN)
The injury to Trevor Lawrence was hard to watch and lowers the ceiling of this passing game, though Evan Engram managers need not panic.
With Mac Jones, 2024:
- 29.1% on-field target share
- 25% red-zone target rate
- 6.2 average depth of target
With Trevor Lawrence, 2024:
- 24.6% on-field target share
- 10% red-zone target rate
- 6.0 average depth of target
Engram’s nine targets netted just 41 yards last week, and his game prior wasn’t any better (28 yards on seven targets). However, the volume appears stable, and that’s enough to give me confidence in this spot and moving forward.
George Kittle | SF (vs. CHI)
Are the Bears an elite AFC team?
Not a trick question. They aren’t elite, nor are they an AFC team.
One team that isn’t on the short list of AFC Super Bowl contenders has held George Kittle out of the end zone this season — the Jets back in Week 1. I’m not at all sweating a down week for Kittle in a blizzard against the Bills on Sunday night. This is a high-usage player who cleared 14 PPR points in eight straight games before the ugly Week 13.
The Bears’ defense isn’t as good as they were early in the year, and with Christian McCaffrey’s role in the passing game vacated, I have zero reservations about labeling Kittle as a top-five player at the position.
Jake Ferguson | DAL (vs. CIN)
Jake Ferguson suffered a concussion in Week 11 and was unable to play on Thanksgiving as he continues to recover. Not all head injuries are created equal, and that means we have to take this situation day by day.
I’m hopeful that he returns for this plus matchup. By EPA, this is the fifth-worst pass defense in the league, and the TE1 role in this offense is likely to be viable if you, like me, expect the game script to work toward another volume game for Cooper Rush.
It’s been a brutal season for Ferguson (two games since September with 25+ yards), but should we get strong reports on his status, I’m not ruling out sliding him inside my top 15 at the position. At the bottom level of usable options at the position, if I can get two of three boxes checked, I’m at least moderately interested.
- Role
- Matchup
- Efficiency
I’d argue that, if at full strength, we could be looking at a matchup difference-maker on Monday night. If you can add Luke Schoonmaker or Mike Gesicki as insurance, I’d 100% do that in an effort to buy as much time as possible.
Ja’Tavion Sanders | CAR (at PHI)
Ja’Tavion Sanders suffered a scary-looking head/neck injury in the first half of Week 12’s loss to the Chiefs, which landed him in the hospital following the game. Hopefully, everything checks out health-wise, as there have been flashes of difference-making talent in this profile. However, there’s no reason for the Panthers to be aggressive with him, and that has me looking in other directions at the position.
If Sanders can return to a full workload, we can circle back, but there’s no reason to take on this level of risk. The future is bright for him and maybe this offense as a whole — don’t forget about his name this summer.
Jonnu Smith | MIA (vs. NYJ)
Jonnu Smith is tied for fourth at the position in PPR points per game since Tua returned to the field. That’s even more impressive when you consider that he averages more fantasy points per target over that stretch than the names ahead of him on the scoring leaderboard.
The veteran has posted an on-field target share north of 20% in five straight games, vacuuming in at least six looks in seven of his past eight games. There was certainly some garbage time on Thanksgiving, but the fact remains that Smith is a chain mover — of his 25 catches over his past three games (301 yards and three scores), 19 have picked up a first down.
Smith doesn’t have the per-target upside of Miami’s receivers, but his role appears to be as safe as any pass catcher in this offense, and that lands him inside of my start-every-week tier at the position.
Juwan Johnson | NO (at NYG)
Juwan Johnson finished Week 13’s loss with a season-high seven targets, and we could see that level of involvement sustained as a result of the Taysom Hill injury.
We’ve seen a few splash plays from New Orleans’ offense, but don’t let that fool you. This is a very cautious offense that is plenty capable of funneling looks in volume to a chain mover like Johnson.
Over the Saints’ past three games, Derek Carr has a 5.0-yard average depth of throw when not targeting Marquez Valdes-Scantling. This is a top-10 offense in rush rate over expectation, and that’s holding back my pass-attempt projection this week. However, looking for 7-10 PPR points is plenty reasonable, something that should be enough to keep you competitive, even if it’s not going to win you your matchup.
Kyle Pitts | ATL (at MIN)
If you remove those two bonkers games against the Buccaneers and project Kyle Pitts’ projection over a full season, we are looking at a 41-reception season (536 yards and two touchdowns).
That’s essentially 2023 Chig Okonkwo.
Over the past two weeks, Pitts has turned 53 routes into nine yards. That yardage is so low I had to spell out the number. For whatever reason, Pitts’ name still carries weight for some, but if you’re weighing his draft capital at this point, you’re leaving fantasy points on the board weekly.
He’s not a top-15 tight end for me this week (his last end-zone target came in Week 6), a damning ranking when you consider that there are six teams on a bye. I’d rather sign up for Mike Gesicki or Will Dissly, both this week and for the remainder of the season.
What a world.
Luke Schoonmaker | DAL (vs. CIN)
Luke Schoonmaker has at least five grabs or a touchdown in three straight games, showing well for himself as he fills the Jake Ferguson role. Given the lack of a reliable WR2 in this offense, could Dallas opt for two tight ends when their presumed starter is back?
It’s possible, but while that would keep Schoonmaker on the field, I’m not confident that this recent run of production is sustainable in a Cooper Rush-led offense.
If there is a singular tight end dominating the opportunities at the position by the time we get to the weekend, I’ll play him as a low-end TE1 (be it Ferguson at full strength or Schoonmaker filling that role as he has recently). If we lack that clarity, I’d rather go to Mike Gesicki or Juwan Johnson as my Band-Aid at the position.
Mike Gesicki | CIN (at DAL)
For the second consecutive weeke Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase accounted for the majority of Joe Burrow targets, a condensed tree that is good for Bengal business, but not so much when it comes to trying to pick off value elsewhere in this offense.
Mike Gesiki is a warm body in a fiery offense, and that’s not a bad place to be when trying to stream the position. The former Nittany Lion has run a route on 97.3% of his snaps this season (34 routes per game over the past month), and with a 75% catch rate, Gesicki is viable when given the opportunity — it’s just a toss-up weekly if that’s going to be the case.
I prefer him to Will Dissly and Cade Otton this week, even if it’s just in a low-end TE1 sort of way. Gesicki owns the second-highest aDOT at the position through 13 weeks, and the Cowboys have struggled when attacked vertically.
Cowboys vs. passes thrown 10+ yards downfield, 2024:
- 24th in passer rating
- 25th in yards per completion
- 26th in yards per attempt
- 28th in touchdown rate
Pat Freiermuth | PIT (vs. CLE)
Pat Freiermuth has now cleared 55 yards in consecutive games (one such game in Weeks 1-11) and has caught 17 of 18 targets over his past five games. The 25-yard touchdown in Cincinnati over the weekend was a productive play, but I was more encouraged by the process behind it than the numbers it resulted in.
Russell Wilson was scrambling and felt comfortable in going to someone not named George Pickens when under pressure. I find it unlikely that we are getting seven targets from Freiermuth on any sort of consistent basis, but if we can safely pencil in 4-5 receptions in an offense that all of a sudden looks potent, that’s the type of profile that I’m comfortable with this time of year.
Taysom Hill | NO (at NYG)
Taysom Hill’s season came to an end on Sunday, ending what was a nice run as a cheat code at the position. What the future holds for the 34-year-old is anyone’s guess (one year remaining on his deal), and his fantasy stock next season will be evaluated with time as the Saints get healthier. But for the sake of 2024, you can move on from a player who appeared destined to support a deep playoff run.
Juwan Johnson is the add. While he isn’t walking into Hill’s role, he does profile as a reasonable option as we approach the stretch run of the fantasy season.
T.J. Hockenson | MIN (vs. ATL)
T.J. Hockenson was held under 50% of the offensive snaps in each of his first three games this season, as the team was cautious with his return after missing over 10 months. Hockenson’s snap share has been up over 64% in consecutive games now, and with the Vikings continuing to churn out victories, he’s trending in a great direction for fantasy managers.
His three catches for 28 yards against the Cardinals on Sunday was far from encouraging in terms of a box score. This is a situation where I’m favoring opportunity over production. With the playing time ticking up and six targets, I think we view Week 13 as a lost battle but a step toward winning the war.
Is Johnny Mundt scoring a knife turn we didn’t need? Yes. But without consistent usage for any of the receivers on this team not named Justin Jefferson, Hockenson is in a good spot to be a Tier 2 producer at the position for the final month of the fantasy season.
Travis Kelce | KC (vs. LAC)
On Black Friday, Travis Kelce easily led the Chiefs in catches (seven) and targets (13), a usage rate that left fantasy managers a little underwhelmed with the final result (68 scoreless yards). The spike of involvement for Noah Gray (three straight games with four receptions and six straight with at least 24 routes run) is annoying and potentially prohibitive, but not nearly enough to knock Kelce out of the starter tier moving forward.
Kelce hasn’t been a top-10 TE performer in the majority of his games this season. Although that’s not the type of note you want given the price you paid over the summer, his 6+ catches in five of six games elevates his floor that is plenty usable once you get past the elite tight ends.
Trey McBride | ARI (v. SEA)
The knock on Trey McBride last season was sustaining the volume he showed after a slow start to his 2023 season. As he broke out, he caught 73 passes in his final 12 games, a usage that was so good that it caused debates about not if regression would happen but how much.
- 2024 (11 games): 73 catches
He is the answer to the “Who did Nick Westbrook-Ikhine steal all of his touchdown luck from?” question, and that’s a tough pill to swallow. But it’s not the type of thing that is predictive. You trust the volume and don’t think twice about it. Since 2000, six times has a player hauled in at least 12 passes in consecutive games before starting his fourth NFL season …
- Stefon Diggs (2016)
- Davante Adams (2016)
- Michael Thomas (2018)
- Justin Jefferson (2022)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (2023)
- McBride (2024)
That streak started with a loss against these Seahawks (12-133-0), a game in which he posted a 50% reception share. McBride is my TE1 for the rest of this season and deserves to be in the conversation with Brock Bowers for the top spot at the position in dynasty formats.
Tyler Conklin | NYJ (at MIA)
In Week 13, Tyler Conklin saw his most targets since Week 5, caught 80% of his looks, and had more receptions than any Jet not named Davante Adams or Garrett Wilson. All of that, and he didn’t sniff a top-20 finish at the position.
There simply isn’t a path to streamer value, let alone overachieving to the level that can impact your league in a meaningful way. You can safely ignore New York’s tight end, even with his regular role in this offense.
Will Dissly | LAC (at KC)
Will Dissly entered Week 13 having given us at least eight PPR points in three straight (and five of six) games, giving streamers a consistent fall-back option with the hope that he’d provide value the rest of the way as this offense opens up.
The thought process was sound, but after earning just a single target on 20 routes in Atlanta over the weekend, it’s clear that he remains more of a week-to-week band-aid than a locked-and-loaded option that we can bank on routinely.
I’m not going to site Brock Bowers’ big Week 13 as a reason to play Dissly in this matchup as the usage is simply too different, but the Chiefs allowed Ja’Tavion Sanders to turn three targets into 7.9 PPR points the week prior and Dawson Knox to earn six looks in Week 11.
There are seven tight ends I feel good about and then another eight that are in a muddy tier of ugliness — he’s right in the center of that with names like Cade Otton and Pat Freiermuth when discussing Week 14.