Week 13 is here, and if you’re reading this, you’re in the playoffs, fighting for a chance to make the playoffs, or you’re already eliminated but are being a good league mate and ensuring you give it your all until the playoffs begin.
As we all know, there will be plenty of questions about who to start and who to sit in your fantasy football lineups. Below, we’ve provided analysis for every fantasy-relevant tight end in every game this weekend.
If you’re looking for all positions, head to our Week 13 Fantasy Football Start-Sit Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Cade Otton | TB (at CAR)
I’m going to keep posting these pretty target plots in this space until I get some sort of confirmation that people are listening.
On the left is Cade Otton’s target distribution with Mike Evans on the field this season; on the right, without. There’s a 27.5% dip in the average depth of his targets to consider, but I’m less worried about where the dots are and more worried about the lack of dots.
Otton has run 183 routes with Evans on the field and 188 without — he has more catches (32) with him off the field than he has targets with him on it (29). I understand wanting to chase Otton’s season-long numbers, and heck, he did have a 30-yard catch last week, but we are talking about a player in a position to earn one target for every 6.3 routes for a six-point road favorite.
How many routes is he realistically going to run? Does he reach the 28 he did last week? I understand that Noah Gray scored twice in this matchup last week, but I’m dismissive of DvP data when it comes to the tight end position, especially when you’re talking about an offense in Kansas City that offers unique packages and another tight end to draw attention.
Otton isn’t a starter for me this week, and as long as the data doesn’t change and Evans stays on the field, that’s not going to change any time soon.
Dallas Goedert | PHI (at BAL)
Sunday night was a pretty good representation of the Dallas Goedert profile. He posted an impressive 26.3% target share with DeVonta Smith (hamstring) sidelined, but Philadelphia didn’t need to pass in volume (22 pass attempts against 45 rush attempts), which suppressed Goedert’s value in a significant way.
The veteran TE has caught 83.3% of his targets this season, a level of efficiency I expect to sustain, and that’s enough to keep Goedert in fantasy lineups. He’s averaging just 9.2 yards per catch this season if you remove three chunk plays against the Saints in Week 3, capping his upside in a significant way but not enough to justify passing on him in favor of a random number generator sitting on your waiver wire.
Dalton Kincaid | BUF (vs. SF)
A knee injury resulted in Dalton Kincaid missing the Week 11 win over the Chiefs, but with the bye week to rehab, the hope is that he will be on the field Sunday night.
Kincaid’s route tree has been opened up a bit this season (aDOT up 17.9% from his encouraging rookie season), but that has created a dip in efficiency that has submarined his value (one finish inside the top 10 this season).
- 2023: 80.2% catch rate
- 2024: 40.7% catch rate
Nick Bosa (hip/oblique) missed last week’s game against the Packers. If he were to sit out again, that would result in me shifting Kincaid up a few spots in my rankings. As it is, he’s a fringe TE1 more because of my faith in this offense than anything Kincaid has done to earn our trust (yet to clear 52 receiving yards in a game).
I’m penciling Kincaid into my lineups, though I am creating contingency plans should his knee not respond the way Buffalo hopes.
Dalton Schultz | HOU (at JAX)
If you were holding out hope on Dalton Schultz, it’s time to move on. To be honest, it’s well beyond that time, but if you’re reading this section, that means that you’ve yet to pull the trigger.
Schultz’s 5.4% on-field target share last week was a career low (minimum 10 routes run) and ranked sixth on this team in a script that was reasonably slanted toward the passing game.
I don’t think we get a game flow that looks anything like that this week. Even if we do, it’s clear that C.J. Stroud is more comfortable looking elsewhere (Cade Stover posted season highs in receptions and targets last week with his first touchdown of the year).
David Njoku | CLE (at DEN)
The weather last Thursday night ended up hurting David Njoku as much as anyone, a touch of irony for a player who insisted on warming up in the elements without a shirt on. He caught just one of five targets in the upset win over the Steelers, a level of inefficiency that included a dropped touchdown that had the potential to bail out fantasy managers from a very underwhelming performance.
I’m not reading into the bad game. Njoku caught all nine of his looks the week prior in a weather-proof game against the Saints, so the connection with Jameis Winston isn’t something I fear. It’s worth noting that his average depth of target is up 66.7% with Winston under center compared to when Deshaun Watson was calling the shots.
The schedule isn’t pretty, and nothing but potential weather spots loom. I’m still not worried.
Njoku, in my opinion, remains the most stable force in Cleveland’s passing game and is deserving of your trust for the remainder of the season.
Dawson Knox | BUF (vs. SF)
Dawson Knox was on the field for 83.1% of Buffalo’s Week 11 snaps with Dalton Kincaid (knee) sidelined, a near 30-percentage point increase from where his rate stood prior.
Should Kincaid sit again, by all means, get exposure to Buffalo’s elite offense as you stream the position. But if the young tight end is back on the field and protecting for his standard role, there’s no utility in Knox (four straight games without a red-zone target and hasn’t cleared 50 receiving yards in a game since Week 15, 2022).
Evan Engram | JAX (vs. HOU)
These backup QB situations create projection chaos, so it’s nice when a player like Evan Engram emerges.
With Mac Jones (2024):
- 30.6% on-field target share
- 73.3% catch rate
- 7.1 aDOT
With Trevor Lawrence (2024):
- 25.6% on-field target share
- 73.5% catch rate
- 6.2 aDOT
Engram is the only Jaguar I’m confident in these days, and I like his chances to catch at least five passes for the sixth time in seven games. With an implied team total of under 20 points, I’m not chasing Engram in a DFS setting where ceilings are rewarded. However, in any redraft league where I roster Engram, I’m starting him with confidence.
George Kittle | SF (at BUF)
George Kittle didn’t see much change in terms of his role last weekend with Brock Purdy on the shelf. That has me comfortable in locking the star tight end regardless of the QB situation.
- 2024: 20% on-field target share, 9.0 aDOT, and 12.1 expected points
- Week 12: 22.2% on-field target share, 10.0 aDOT, and 11.9 expected points
The 49ers have made it clear that, no matter the players on the field, Kittle is the man they trust as the end zone comes into focus. He’s scored eight times in his past eight games, and with the Bills focusing on preventing big perimeter plays, he should have room to operate in the middle portion of the field.
Hunter Henry | NE (vs. IND)
Drake Maye is peppering the TE position with targets these days but hasn’t featured one exclusively, which makes both Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper difficult to count on.
Over the past three weeks, Henry has earned 21 targets to Hooper’s 12. That’s encouraging, but his lead in the reception department over that stretch is just 12-11. Add in the consistent role of DeMario Douglas (27 targets in November) and the involvement of the running backs — there’s just not much upward trajectory for any pass catcher in this offense.
I prefer Henry to Hooper if you’re in the tortured spot of having to decide, but there are 15 players at the position I like more than either, so you can do better in most situations.
Isaiah Likely | BAL (vs. PHI)
I can’t be the only one wondering how Isaiah Likely is featured on the hands team, the most important play of the game, but has been held without a reception in two of his past three games and hasn’t earned more than five targets in a game since his dramatic season opener.
Are his hands so good that we want to save them for the onside kick?
That’s some serious 4D chess if that’s the thought process. More likely, however, is that this offense just isn’t designed to run through the tight end position. The running game is clearly the driving force while the versatility of Zay Flowers and the field stretching of Rashod Bateman are the preferred receiver types.
I’m holding my Likely dynasty shares but not with the thought that they yield much in the way of returns for the remainder of 2024.
Ja’Tavion Sanders | CAR (vs. TB)
Ja’Tavion Sanders suffered a scary-looking head/neck injury in the first half of last week’s loss to the Chiefs, which landed him in the hospital following the game. Hopefully, everything checks out health-wise, as there have been flashes of difference-making talent in this profile. However, there’s no reason for the Panthers to be aggressive with him, and that has me looking in other directions at the position.
If Sanders can return to a full workload, we can circle back, but there’s no reason to take on this level of risk. The future is bright for him and maybe this offense as a whole — don’t forget about his name this summer.
Juwan Johnson | NO (vs. LAR)
Juwan Johnson scored in Week 11, but it required his first end-zone target since Week 1 and was yet another game with under 50 receiving yards. Anything can happen in New Orleans if they are going to give Taysom Hill as many touches as he’s had recently, but considering that they haven’t trusted Johnson with 25 routes in a game since mid-October, there’s no reason to go this far down the rankings.
The TE streamer tier is underwhelming, but there are a handful of options out there who are either a part of a productive offense (Dalton Schultz and Zach Ertz) or in the midst of seeing their role increase (Will Dissly and Ja’Tavion Sanders).
Kyle Pitts | ATL (vs. LAC)
It’s the holiday season, and you know what that means — having to explain to the in-laws what you do.
No? That’s just me?
Every year I describe the “fantasy analyst” thing, and they ask why it requires so much time. This year, I’m going to be prepared. I’m going to print out Kyle Pitts’ weekly finishes and show them:
- Week 8: TE2
- Week 9: TE40
- Week 10: TE12
- Week 11: TE42
“My job is to get ahead of wild swings like this, and that is why it takes time.”
So where has my time gone this week? Trying to identify why those productive weeks occurred.
Both good weeks came against defenses that rank below league average in pressure rate when not blitzing, while the poor weeks came against top-12 units in that regard.
Despite the limitations in blitz success rate, both defenses that coughed up production to Pitts are top 12 in sack rate, while the dud stat lines came against a below-average defense in that respect.
Drum roll, please …
The Chargers fit the former. They aren’t a high success rate defense when it comes to blitzing, but they own a top-five sack rate. Giddy up!
Now that we know that this matchup mirrors that of past plus performances, I have something to share with my in-laws about the attention to detail that my job requires. Am I opening myself up to a boatload of questions come Christmas time when Pitts goes 2-17-0 this week?
I am, and that would mean not only the questioning of my profession but also if I’m any good at it. So, yeah, I have more riding on my top 10 ranking of Pitts this week than you do.
Mark Andrews | BAL (vs. PHI)
Mark Andrews made a nice catch in the back of the end zone last week, but he is walking such a thin line to be productive for fantasy managers. He was on the field for a season-low 41.7% of snaps last week; while the 5-44-1 stat line is nice, it’s hard to produce if you’re not consistently on the field.
I loved that they used him in-line (72% slot share), and that is something I’ll be tracking, but Todd Monken has made it clear that he doesn’t need pass-catching tight ends for this offense to function how he wants.
I’m not going to rank either Baltimore tight end as a starter unless things change dramatically down the stretch.
Mike Gesicki | CIN (vs. PIT)
The last time we saw Mike Gesicki was Week 11 against the Chargers, a zero-catch performance that left fantasy managers disappointed in a game in which the Bengals scored 27 points.
We’ve seen the role come and go for Cincy’s TE (five games with fewer than three targets and four games with over four targets), but Gesicki is consistently given the opportunity to earn targets, which is enough for me if I’m streaming the position.
Over the past two weeks, Gesicki has run a route on 87 of 115 Joe Burrow dropbacks (75.7%). This team is only going to go as far as the offense will take them, and it’s clear that they are plenty comfortable with their fate in the hands of their franchise quarterback.
Gesicki’s floor is a low one, but with a ceiling volume projection that is well ahead of the other tight ends in this tier, he’s plenty viable, even in a tough matchup.
Pat Freiermuth | PIT (at CIN)
We entered Week 12 with concerns about Darnell Washington’s upward trending snap share, but Pat Freiermuth clearly has Russell Wilson’s trust, which resulted in a respectable four-catch, 59-yard outing against the Browns in the snow last Thursday night.
Freiermuth has caught 35 of 40 targets this season (13 of 14 from Russell Wilson), and I was encouraged by the Steelers experimenting with working him down the field a bit in Week 12. It’s a tiny sample, and I’m not adjusting my per-target upside projection, though it was good to see him haul in a pair of passes thrown 10+ yards downfield (he had one such catch in his previous five games).
With the bye behind him and a net positive matchup grade over the next month, I have Freiermuth penciled in as a fringe TE1, just ahead of the streamer tier, and a player you can hold onto.
Taysom Hill | NO (vs. LAR)
You may have heard that Taysom Hill had himself a day the last time his Saints took the field.
Hill’s production in Week 11 vs. the Cleveland Browns:
- 18 passing yards
- 138 rushing yards and three TDs
- 50 receiving yards (36.4% reception share)
Hill ranked second in rushing yards for the week while seeing more targets than Puka Nacua and recording more catches than Tyreek Hill. Hopefully, you cashed in on the historic week. No matter what you think of New Orleans’ unique weapon, weeks like that simply don’t come around.
Forget the production and look at the usage. The fact that Hill was put in a position to post a crazy stat line like that is enough to keep him ranked as a TE1 for me this week, even without the benefit of having any teams on bye.
Over his past four games, Hill has averaged 10.3 traditional opportunities (targets + rushes) per game. Given the proximity of his average snap to the goal line, you’re starting him if you have him against a bottom-five yards-after-catch defense this weekend.
T.J. Hockenson | MIN (vs. ARI)
After totaling 112 yards in his first three games of the season, T.J. Hockenson burned the Bears for 114 yards on nine targets (seven catches) in the Week 12 win. In a game that came down to the wire, I loved to see the star TE account for 60% of Minnesota’s receiving yards in the fourth quarter of a close game, and I am comfortable locking him in as a top-10 producer the rest of the way.
The late-game usage was encouraging, and so was the Vikings’ willingness to extend his routes downfield. Hockenson posted a 10.1 aDOT last week, fueling two chunk gains (20 and 34 yards), giving him access to a nice ceiling to complement his stable floor.
Trey McBride | ARI (at MIN)
There are four tight ends this millennium with at least three 10-catch games before turning 26 years of age: Jeremy Shockey, Kellen Winslow, Tony Gonzalez, and Trey McBride.
We liked the idea of McBride being the unquestioned second option in this passing game entering the season, and after 12 weeks, it’s clear that he’s the top threat. He had half of Arizona’s receptions in Seattle last week, and with seven first-down receptions, the Cardinals essentially trusted him to keep them ahead of the sticks.
McBride is my top-ranked TE for the remainder of the season, as Arizona tries to leverage a forgiving rest-of-season schedule and turn it into a divisional title.
Tyler Conklin | NYJ (vs. SEA)
If Tyler Conklin is the answer to your TE questions — there’s always next season. Care to venture a guess as to how many tight ends had more receiving yards than Conklin in Weeks 9-11 (eighth at the position in routes run over that stretch), before New York went on their bye?
Sixty-four.
Look somewhere else. Anywhere else, I beg of you.
Will Dissly | LAC (at ATL)
Will Dissly pulled in an 18-yard catch on Los Angeles’ first drive last week and was great in Week 11 against the Bengals (4-80-1). He’s clearly worked his way into a role as this offense slowly opens up, but I worry that the target ceiling is only so high.
Ladd McConkey has established himself as a reliable option, and with two other receivers who will have their moments, Dissly is more of a matchup play for me.
This is one of those matchups.
The Falcons rank 21st in red-zone defense and 30th on third downs, two areas where the Bolts value what it is that their athletic tight end brings to the table.
I’m looking for 6-7 targets and 4-5 receptions volume high enough to land him inside of my top 15, especially when you consider that the Chargers are willing to explore his matchups down the field on linebackers.
Zach Ertz | WAS (vs. TEN)
We have Brock Bowers breaking the mold for young tight ends, but don’t sleep on the elder statesmen. Jonnu Smith has 15 catches and three touchdowns over the past two weeks, and Zach Ertz has quietly been producing ever since Jayden Daniels’ (ribs) injury.
The veteran TE has been a top-10 producer at the position in four of his past six games (four end-zone targets over that stretch). Ertz has been on the field for over 70% of Washington’s snaps in each of the past three, and as a part of an offense that lacks a WR2 (Ertz has 17 more targets than any Commander not named McLaurin this season), the volume projects as stable.
Ertz and Daniels showed a nice connection on their timing-based four-yard score over the weekend. I have Ertz ranked well within the reasonable starter range. I’m playing him over Cade Otton, Mark Andrews, and a few other tight ends who have had peaks and valleys this year.