Week 12 is here, which means the playoffs are right around the corner. As we all know, there will be plenty of questions about who to start and who to sit in your fantasy football lineups. Below, we’ve provided analysis for every fantasy-relevant tight end in every game this weekend.
If you’re looking for all positions, head to our Week 12 Fantasy Football Start-Sit Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Brock Bowers | LV (vs. DEN)
On Sunday, Brock Bowers recorded his second game with at least eight catches, 95 yards, and a touchdown. He joins Mike Ditka (1961) and Robert Awalt (1987) as the only rookie tight ends to have multiple such games.
The first such game this season? The Week 5 loss to these Broncos, a game in which Bowers saw one-third of the targets directed his way.
The Raiders are as limited as anyone on the offensive end, but at least they are self-aware about the situation. Jakobi Meyers led the team in rushing over the weekend while he and Bowers saw 56.4% of passes directed their way.
Gardner Minshew II is capable of identifying mismatches, something that we saw last week on Bowers’ 23-yard touchdown as the coverage was made obvious via motion. That’s enough to keep him as a Tier 1 option the rest of the way.
Do I expect Vegas to score a bunch of points? Of course not, but they are averaging just 18.7 points per game this season, and that hasn’t stopped Bowers from pacing for a rookie-record 119 receptions.
Cade Otton | TB (at NYG)
Cade Otton has a touchdown or 8+ targets in five straight games and has proven to be a cheat code for anyone who scooped him off of the waiver wire when Tampa Bay suffered its rash of injuries.
Good work!
You’ve earned wins over the past month because of your savvy, but might the savvy play now be to move on?
With Mike Evans on the field, 2024:
- 0.95 yards per route
- 14.8% on-field target hare
- 4.1 aDOT
Without Evans on the field, 2024:
- 1.69 yards per route
- 22% on-field target share
- 6.6 aDOT
Evans is expected to return coming out of the bye, and with the Bucs entering as a road favorite, could we be looking at a lower-volume game in terms of pass attempts?
With six teams on a bye, there aren’t a ton of options at the tight end position to pivot to; that is why Otton remains a fringe starter for me, but I’m not at all interested in going this direction in DFS formats.
Cole Kmet | CHI (vs. MIN)
If we can’t count on any of the receivers in Chicago under Caleb Williams, how are we supposed to commit to its tight end? During the current four-game losing streak, Cole Kmet has turned 126 routes into just eight low-upside targets, making him an afterthought in all formats.
The Bears tanked Kmet’s slot usage in the loss to the Packers last week, taking away the efficient targets from a profile that already carries very little scoring equity. Kmet is my lowest-ranked TE who is consistently on the field. I’d rather stream Chig Okonkwo or Ja’Tavion Sanders this week (and moving forward) if pushed.
Dallas Goedert | PHI (at LAR)
Dallas Goedert’s skill set might not be flashy, but he’s reached double figures in PPR points in each of his past four healthy games and is averaging north of 2.0 fantasy points per target for the third time in four seasons.
The volume is never going to overwhelm given the level of talent playing alongside him, but his 20.6% on-field target share is pacing for the best mark of his career. With an aDOT that is up 30.9% from last year, there’s more upside in this profile than you may assume.
Talent-wise, Goedert may not be much different than anyone in this third tier of tight end, but in an offense that I trust to put him in a position to get valuable looks consistently, he’s a weekly starter for me; that’s true this week against a bottom-10 defense when defending tight ends in terms of touchdown rate, completion percentage, and yards per reception.
Dalton Schultz | HOU (vs. TEN)
Dalton Schultz saw seven targets in Monday’s dismantling of Dallas (his second-highest total of the season), but he managed just 33 yards. His regular-season scoring drought is now over a calendar year, and without much equity in that regard, his path to upside isn’t clear for standard leagues.
There’s a reasonable PPR floor that is worth chasing, as he is pretty clearly the third option in this passing game, but do so with the understanding that Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Joe Mixon will soak up the vast majority of opportunities in scoring position.
George Kittle | SF (at GB)
We knew that George Kittle was battling a hamstring injury entering the weekend, though his being ruled inactive for Week 11 was a bit of a surprise. The All-Pro tight end has played only one full season in his NFL career (2018), so missed time isn’t something new. Nevertheless, the hope is that Kittle will be ready for the Packers this weekend.
Assuming Kittle is active for the 49ers, he’s active for you. He’s an elite option and a focal part of an efficient offense, but we’ve seen optimism rise in him post-Brandon Aiyuk injury (based on DFS ownership, the questions I get on X, etc.). Since the beginning of last season, however, the data suggests Kittle is nearly the exact same asset, regardless of Aiyuk’s presence.
With Aiyuk on the field, 2024:
- 2.43 fantasy points per target
- 2.29 yards per route
- 21% target rate
Without Aiyuk on the field, 2024:
- 2.32 fantasy points per target
- 2.44 yards per route
- 20.9% target rate
The Packers haven’t played many teams that rely on tight end production the way the 49ers do, but in those spots, they’ve allowed fantasy numbers to the position.
- Evan Engram/Brenton Strange: Nine catches, 95 yards, and a TD (10 targets)
- Trey McBride: Eight catches and 96 yards (eight targets)
I’ll be tracking Kittle’s practice habits throughout the week, though I’m cautiously optimistic that he’ll be active, which is why he sits atop my tight end rankings.
Hunter Henry | NE (at MIA)
Hunter Henry has at least five catches in four of his past five games. While the quality of those receptions is very much in question (one touchdown this season, seven games without a catch gaining more than 15 yards), volume talks at the back end of the tight end rankings.
The Dolphins’ blitz rate has fallen off a cliff over the past two weeks, which could result in clean releases for a YAC threat like Henry. Austin Hooper’s presence continues to be annoying (4+ targets in four of his past five games), but with Henry being targeted on 35.1% of his red-zone routes in November, I think there’s enough potential to make him a top-10 TE option in a week where New England may abandon the run early on.
Isaiah Likely | BAL (at LAC)
The 42-yard catch and run in the first quarter last weekend was a good reminder of how impactful Isaiah Likely’s athletic profile can be, but the rest of the game was a reminder of how little he is used.
Likely played just 48.1% of Baltimore’s snaps in the loss to Pittsburgh, his lowest in a healthy game this season, putting him in a difficult spot to produce with consistency. I can justify rostering him based on his physical tools and the potency of Baltimore’s offense, but counting on Likely weekly is going to be more maddening than impactful.
This isn’t a good matchup, and even if you’re willing to dive into a tough one, I prefer Ja’Tavion Sanders, a young option whose team is motivated to develop talent instead of aiming to win now.
Jake Ferguson | DAL (at WAS)
Jake Ferguson left Week 11’s loss early with a concussion. The 25-year-old entered this season with extreme promise after catching 71 balls last season and recording a touchdown hat trick in the playoffs. But the per-catch production has fallen off a cliff this season, and that doesn’t seem likely to improve with Cooper Rush under center.
Keep an eye on this situation, but I’d make secondary plans. Ferguson is, at best, a streaming-level option in this offense. Options like Ja’Tavion Sanders, Will Dissly, and Jonnu Smith are available depending on the depth of your league, all of whom are healthy and trending better.
Ja’Tavion Sanders | CAR (vs. KC)
The Panthers are in the business of developing their young talent and Ja’Tavion Sanders certainly qualifies as such. The rookie averaged 13.1 yards per catch during his collegiate career (99-catch sample size), and for redraft purposes in a bottom-tier offense, I love that Carolina is leaning into his athleticism.
- Weeks 1-5: 1.5-yard aDOT
- Weeks 6-11: 6.6-yard aDOT
The inconsistent volume and lack of red-zone snaps are stopping Sanders from cracking my top 12, but by catching 13 of his last 14 targets, he’s a viable streamer for me — especially when you consider that Carolina will be operating in a pass-heavy script with regularity.
Jonnu Smith | MIA (vs. NE)
We were confident that the AFC East would provide us with one fantasy difference-maker at the TE position. Is Jonnu Smith now that player?
The veteran is one of two at the position this season with multiple games of 90 receiving yards and a TD catch (other: Brock Bowers). While I don’t think 6-101-2 stat lines like last week against the Raiders are going to be the norm (a 57-yard touchdown in which he was left completely uncovered helped), with 6+ targets in five of his past six games, there’s enough of a floor in Smith’s profile to consider him a TE1 moving forward.
Even if you don’t want to bet on a 29-year-old who has never earned looks at a high rate (zero seasons with more than 50 receptions), the gravity of the offense around him has me sold. With speed going in every direction as a part of this motion-centric Miami offense, Smith’s role is advantageous in valuable spots.
The Patriots are often attacked deep downfield (fifth-highest opponent average depth of throw), and if the Dolphins look to execute that plan with their burners extending the field, another 5-6 catch projection makes sense to me.
That’s enough to slide Smith into my top 12 tight ends.
Mark Andrews | BAL (at LAC)
The touchdown barrage entering Week 11 was fun, but it was never going to be sustainable. This season, Mark Andrews has seen 40.1% of his PPR fantasy points produced via scores, a rate that spiked to 34.9% last season from 20.7% in 2022.
This is who Andrews is at this point. The Ravens will have better offensive days moving forward, but they no longer require their veteran TE to produce in order to get there.
My fringe TE1 ranking of Andrews is more a nod to the superhero abilities of Lamar Jackson than anything else. The days of elite volume are behind us here, and the next tight end who clears eight PPR points against the Chargers without seeing at least seven targets will be the first this season.
Sam LaPorta | DET (at IND)
Fun fact: Since the Week 5 bye, Sam LaPorta only has finished inside the top 10 or outside of the top 25.
OK, so maybe that’s not as much “fun” as it is a numeric way to describe your disappointment.
LaPorta sat out last week’s dismantling of Jacksonville (props to you if you streamed Brock Wright’s touchdown as a backup option) with a shoulder injury, the first DNP of his young career, and not a great sign for his loyal fantasy managers.
A less-than-full-strength LaPorta is a concern given that the 9-1 Lions are likely to be more forward-looking than most teams down the stretch.
We’ve seen some breadcrumbs laid before the injury (26.3% on-field target share from Weeks 8-10, up from a putrid 10.2% prior), and that’s enough reason for me to rank him as my TE11 this season, sandwiched between Jonnu Smith and Pat Freiermuth.
Cade Otton was a popular midseason add, but assuming all reports remain optimistic on Mike Evans, LaPorta would be my play, health permitting if you roster both.
T.J. Hockenson | MIN (at CHI)
That’s now two dud performances in three weeks back from injury for T.J. Hockenson. And while I still think there’s a role to be had here, I can’t help but be nervous that he’s not being extended.
- Week 9 vs. Colts: 45.1% snap share
- Week 10 at Jaguars: 46.3% snap share
- Week 11 at Titans: 44.8% snap share
Is it possible that Hockenson missed the peaks of the Sam Darnold roller coaster and is joining the ride at the worst possible time? It’s possible, though I don’t think what we saw over the weekend is sustainable.
In the win over the Titans, Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison saw the majority of targets with the remaining 46.7% being spread pretty evenly among eight Vikings players. That’s how you get to a 10% target share for one of the better players at his position in the league.
I don’t think Addison earns looks at the rate we saw on Sunday, and I find it unlikely that we get that little target clarity again.
In leagues with a deadline coming up and a team in good shape, I’d be circling a desperate Hockenson manager and trying to poach him (the bye week is in the rearview and the remaining schedule can be navigated).
Travis Kelce | KC (at CAR)
After three straight top-three TE finishes and sucking us back in, Travis Kelce laid an egg that could have easily cost you a critical matchup. In the game of the week, the veteran turned a 78.8% snap share into two catches and eight yards, being outgained through the air by everyone’s favorite No. 88 in recent memory … Peyton Hendershot!
The fantasy performance was Kelce’s second-worst of his career when seeing at least four targets. On the bright side, he has followed each of his past two single-digit games with a TE3 finish.
It’s OK to be frustrated, but I’d encourage you to avoid making any rage-based decisions.
Trey McBride | ARI (at SEA)
- Trey McBride has more rushing touchdowns than receiving touchdowns this season.
- Trey McBride has more fumble recovery touchdowns than receiving touchdowns this season.
It’s been a weird year for McBride in the scoring department, but I think you’re borderline crazy if you’re the least bit worried. He exploded last season and his target per red-zone route run this season is higher than in 2023, a major trend to buy into given the offense’s potency.
McBride has seen an end-zone target in consecutive games and has posted an on-field target share north of 23% in five of his past six games. Arizona’s budding star has six top-10 finishes this season without a touchdown catch at a position that is overly reliant on touchdowns, something that speaks to his consistency.
The volume keeps McBride ranked among the elite without good fortune, and if he can just live up to expectations when it comes to scoring, he’s as good a bet as any to lead the position in scoring the rest of the way.
The scores are coming, and a late-season barrage could start against a Seahawks defense that ranks bottom-five in touchdown prevention following a hot first three weeks.
Tucker Kraft, | GB (vs. SF)
Tucker Kraft is the latest example of how being on the field guarantees you nothing at the tight end position. Kraft played 93% of Green Bay’s offensive snaps against the Bears, yet failed to haul in his lone target.
We liked what we saw from Kraft early this season, and he is attached to an above-average offense. But with an on-field target share no higher than 12% in four of his past five games, the role simply isn’t enough for you to count on moving forward.
I’m not writing Kraft off as potentially mattering in a few weeks, but he’s not a starter until we get proof of concept. He was an afterthought on Sunday, and that was a game in which Jayden Reed (two targets) was hardly used and the Packers were trailing for 41.9% of their snaps.
I’d rather play Jonnu Smith (vs. Patriots), something I didn’t think I’d be saying at this point.
Zach Ertz | WAS (vs. DAL)
Zach Ertz is coming off his best game of the season (6-47-1), though much of that production came on a late drive where the Eagles were content to let Washington move the ball if it meant time coming off the clock.
That said, all points count the same, and the veteran tight end has now caught at least four passes in five of his past six games. Ertz has seen his work rate from the slot vary on a week-to-week basis — if the Commanders commit to that role, we are looking at a weekly fantasy starter (80.6% catch rate when in the slot this season, 60% otherwise).
Ertz is a top-12 option for me in this spot, as I’m projecting the slot role to be there for the taking against a Dallas team allowing touchdowns to that spot on the field at the third-highest rate in the league.