Last week, we went 2-1 on our top Thursday Night Football prop bets in the Dallas Cowboys’ 20-15 win over the New York Giants. For tonight’s showdown between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Atlanta Falcons, we’re looking to go undefeated on our NFL prop bets.
Let’s dive right into my top player props for tonight’s game, with advanced insights and analysis to back up each pick.
Note: Links to sportsbooks on this page are affiliate links, meaning, at no additional cost to you, we may receive a commission if you click through and sign up for a sportsbook account. If you or someone you know has a gambling issue, please seek help. You can call the National Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700 or visit www.ncpgambling.org for confidential support.
Recommended Prop Bets for Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Oct. 2, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated otherwise.
Rachaad White Under 35.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Through four weeks, Rachaad White is last in yards per carry at 2.8 out of 49 running backs with 25+ rushing attempts.
While he is coming off a 10-carry, 49-yard performance last week, it came against a Philadelphia Eagles defense that is allowing the fifth-most yards per carry and before contact on average.
Rookie running back Bucky Irving is also starting to see more playing time, which should begin cutting into White’s production. After averaging 18.33 snaps per game from Weeks 1-3, Irving’s snap count went up to 30 in last week’s contest.
Irving’s increase in playing time is a direct result of being a much more efficient runner than White so far.
- Yards Per Carry: Irving 5.8, White 2.8
- Average Yards Before Contact: Irving 1.83, White 0.10
- Averaged Yards After Contact: Irving 3.97, White 2.71
- Explosive Rush Percentage (12+ yards): Irving 11.4%, White 7.3%
- Success Rate: Irving 45.7%, White 26.8%
Missed Tackles Forced vs. Yards from Scrimmage per Touch
[@FantasyPtsData]– Ken Walker is the most efficient/explosive RB in the league by a good margin right now
– Bucky Irving, J.K. Dobbins, Chase Brown have all earned more playing time
– Noticeable gap with Breece/Braelon pic.twitter.com/ygOXbLMkqJ
— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) October 1, 2024
The Buccaneers are also a very pass heavy team (second in pass rate over expectation), which works well in our favor here in fading White.
Take the under on White’s rushing yards prop, as his inefficiency as a runner and his volume are starting to decrease with Irving’s role increasing.
Mike Evans Longest Reception Under 23.5 Yards (-115)
While Mike Evans is known for his big-play ability, his production has dipped in that area so far this season.
After having an explosive reception rate (percentage catches of 16+ yards) of 39.2% last season, that percentage has dropped to 27.8% in 2024.
Evans’ decrease in explosive plays is correlated to Baker Mayfield’s very low average air yards per attempt of 5.5, which is the lowest among all starting quarterbacks. Last season, Mayfield’s 8.6 average was the fifth highest in the NFL.
Evans and Mayfield will also face a Falcons secondary that has allowed the second-lowest average air yards per target and explosive plays after four weeks.
Additionally, Evans hasn’t had a reception of 24+ yards since Week 1, and that came against the Commanders’ 32nd-ranked defense.
I feel comfortable taking the under here.
Drake London Over 5.5 Receptions (+112 at FanDuel)
The Buccaneers’ pass defense hasn’t really been tested in the last two weeks.
Last week, Tampa Bay faced an Eagles offense missing A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. In the week prior, the Bucs went against a Bo Nix-led passing attack.
The last time they went up against a competent passing offense was in Detroit in Week 2. In that contest, Amon-Ra St. Brown had 11 receptions for 119 yards on 18 targets.
Tampa Bay’s secondary has taken a hit with Antoine Winfield Jr.’s injury, their best defensive back. Winfield has been out since suffering a foot injury in the Buccaneers’ season opener, and he has yet to practice this week.
The beneficiary here should be the Falcons’ No. 1 wide receiver, Drake London.
Although London hasn’t had any huge performances yet this season, he has recorded six receptions in three consecutive games. His production should only increase, too, as Kirk Cousins continues to get more comfortable in his return from a torn Achilles.
