Two future faces in the NFL battle this Thursday night to kick off Week 4. The revamped Cincinnati Bengals host the inexperienced Jacksonville Jaguars in this week’s primetime matchup. In this NFL betting prediction, let’s dive into a Jaguars spread vs. a Bengals pick and determine the best bet for this Thursday Night Football prediction.
Thursday Night Football Picks: Jaguars vs. Bengals prediction
Four weeks in, and the Jaguars are still searching for their first win this season. Things looked promising in the first half of last week’s game against the Arizona Cardinals. But as expected, Jacksonville did Jacksonville things and immediately relinquished their first-half lead in the third quarter and never led again.
The Bengals look like they have already turned the corner in their rebuild. After squeaking out a win against a good Minnesota Vikings team, they also defeated their division rival Pittsburgh Steelers. Surprisingly enough, Cincinnati’s defense looks fierce and ready to attack anyone. Which team is the one to pick in tonight’s Thursday Night Football game?
Jaguars’ inexperience
Both rookie head coach Urban Meyer and rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence are searching for their first win in the NFL. Turnovers seem to be one of the most significant factors limiting them, as Lawrence leads the league in interceptions with 7. Additionally, the Jaguars as a whole, own the most giveaways with 9.
Jacksonville is 27th in the league in passing offense (211.7 air yards per game) and 18th in rushing (103.3). They’re also averaging 17.7 points per game, which ranks 27th overall.
There is a lot of offensive ineptitude across the board in Jacksonville, partially due to the poor offensive line play and rookie inexperience from both head coach and QB.
Lawrence looks like your typical first-year signal-caller who needs time to adjust to the NFL speed. He received all the hype in the college ranks in the last few years, yet here we are. He has only completed 54% of his passes for 5.7 yards per attempt and has 5 touchdowns this season. It is a lot to expect a rookie quarterback to come in and turn a franchise around in Year 1, but the Jaguars have no other choice than to rely on Lawrence.
As above, so below
Jacksonville’s defense isn’t helping the cause, making matters even worse. They’ve recorded just 1 interception thus far — their only takeaway. The Jaguars’ defense is giving up 30.3 points per game, ranking 28th in the league.
The Jaguars only have 4 sacks on the season and are allowing 302.3 yards through the air (28th). With Bengals QB Joe Burrow leading the way surrounded by young, talented wide receivers, Jacksonville will need to turn their defense around immediately if they are to win this Thursday Night Football game.
Bengals’ surprising turnaround
Cincinnati was expected to enter the season with a poor offensive line and a poor defense but have proved naysayers wrong. The combo of these improvements has led them to a 2-1 record and a victory over the Steelers, whom they haven’t beat since 2015.
While the Bengals’ offensive line isn’t as subpar as expected, Cincinnati’s offense isn’t putting up eye-catching numbers either. They’re 28th in the NFL in passing offense, recording 189.3 yards per game. Additionally, their run game ranks 17th in rush yards with 104.7 per game.
Defensive prowess
The Bengals are averaging 22.7 points per game, which is league average, and they’re 25th in offensive DVOA. Both offenses tonight are either middle of the pack or near the bottom in nearly every category.
Defensively, the Bengals have shined. They rank sixth in scoring defense (18 points per game) and second in run defense DVOA. Cincinnati ranks top 10 in multiple defensive categories and should have a field day against a bottom-tier Jacksonville offense. All of these factors lead to my Thursday Night Football pick.
Thursday Night Football prediction and pick
There are a few trends to add to the stats in determining which pick to make. First, primetime games have an absurd 8-1 record going over their projected totals to start the season. I expect this number to regress to the mean. Secondly, both teams have hit the under in two out of their three games this season.
With a top-10 defense going up against one of the worst offenses in the league, the under makes sense. Add in the fact that the Cincinnati offense isn’t lighting up the board either, and we have a game that should emphasize both teams running the ball in a low-scoring, tight matchup. Take under 46.5 points and bank on only the second primetime under cashing so far with this Thursday Night Football pick.