Two teams headed in opposite directions face off on Thursday night. The dismantled Houston Texans host the upstart Carolina Panthers in this week’s primetime matchup. In this NFL betting prediction, let’s dive into the Texans vs. Panthers spread and determine the best bet for this Thursday Night Football pick and prediction.
Thursday Night Football Picks: Texans vs. Panthers prediction
After a hamstring injury took starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor out of the game, the Texans enter Week 3 with rookie Davis Mills as their starter against an impressive Panthers defense. How he handles this primetime scenario leads to our pick and prediction.
The Panthers have a young and fearsome defense. With a backup quarterback starting against an aggressive pass rush, we are locked in on a side in this game. Add in the fact that the Texans’ run game is reminiscent of spinning tires in mud, and the play on the side becomes even more appealing for this Thursday Night Football pick.
Panthers’ impressive rebuild
Carolina is coming off a dominating performance against their division rival New Orleans Saints. Last week, they entered the second half with a 17-0 lead and limited the Saints to 128 yards of offense. They also caused 2 turnovers while sacking quarterback Jameis Winston 4 times.
The Panthers generated pressure on 64% of Winston’s dropbacks. They lead the league in scoring defense; they are holding opposing offenses to a 25% success rate on third down and have 10 sacks. Carolina also limited New Orleans to a total of 6 first downs last week. Mills will have his hands full tonight.
On offense, the Panthers look to be turning the corner as well. They currently rank ninth in the league in passing offense (282 passing yards per game) and 18th in points per game at 22.5. Quarterback Sam Darnold is completing 68% of his passes while throwing for 3 touchdowns and 1 interception through two games.
The Panthers will look to pressure Mills early and often to keep him rattled and potentially cause multiple turnovers. With a bottom-tier defense in Houston, Darnold and Co. should easily move the ball. Expect a heavy dose of running back Christian McCaffrey, while Carolina’s wide receivers should see plenty of action, too. All these factors lead to a relatively easy Thursday Night Football pick.
Texans’ unfortunate luck
What an offseason and beginning to the 2021 season for the Houston Texans. Not only are they without their top-five quarterback in Deshaun Watson, but they also lost his replacement in Tyrod Taylor for a few weeks. The unfortunate part was that the Texans’ offense looked like a more threatening unit than most expected entering the season.
While Taylor was the starter, Houston racked up some decent stats offensively. They currently rank 13th in passing offense with 254.5 yards per game and are 11th overall in rushing with 121 yards on average. However, the rushing stats are misleading, considering they are only averaging 3.5 yards per carry — good for 25th in the league.
Now, they will have a short turnaround to this game and will have to do so with a rookie quarterback at the helm. I expect a heavy dose of a run-first game plan to limit Mills’ mistakes and alleviate the aggressive Carolina pressure. With multiple third-and-long situations to overcome, I could easily see Houston limited to 13 points or less, making this a prime Thursday Night Football pick.
Mills completed 44% of his passes in limited action versus the Cleveland Browns last week for 102 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT. The Texans have limited options offensively and will face a Carolina defense that only blitzes 16% of the time.
Mills’ 8 completions last week went for an average of 5.7 yards, which shows his propensity to throw checkdowns a lot and play it safe. We can expect a simplified Houston offense tonight focused on the running backs and underneath routes to wide receivers and tight ends.
Thursday Night Football pick and prediction
The Panthers are one of the surprising teams in the early part of the season. However, they are doing it the right way, focusing on defense and pressuring opposing quarterbacks. As the offense continues to mesh and improve over time, they could be a serious threat in the NFC South.
A rookie quarterback making his first official start in Week 3 against a fierce Carolina defense. Talk about an ideal scenario to be introduced to the NFL — and the NFL odds reflect a home dog in a dire situation. Mills will be under constant pressure and needs to get rid of the ball early. It will be the only way to prevent errant throws and potential turnovers. I’ll gladly take the dominant defense in this one, and I expect the Panthers to win this game by 10+ points in this Thursday Night Football prediction.