Tonight’s interconference matchup will have significant playoff implications for both teams. The injury-riddled Tennessee Titans head to San Francisco to challenge the resurgent 49ers as a pick for tonight’s Thursday Night Football prediction. In this prime-time matchup, let’s dive into the 49ers vs. Titans and determine the best choice for this NFL betting opportunity.
Thursday Night Football Pick: 49ers vs. Titans prediction
We open Week 16 with two teams that need to win tonight’s game to stay relevant in the NFL playoff picture.
Tennessee has dealt with plenty of difficulties this season, primarily due to injuries and COVID protocols. But they found a way to continue winning when it seemed like things were stacked against them. They still control their own destiny in the AFC South and can keep it that way with a victory tonight.
[bet-promo id=”160605″ ]San Francisco has gone through moments this season where they looked invincible while looking horrendous at other points. With running back Jeff Wilson Jr. back to create a two-headed monster with Elijah Mitchell, the 49ers have gone back to their aggressive running game plan and utilizing quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo when it becomes necessary.
Can the Titans overcome their injuries to be a viable pick in this Thursday Night Football prediction? Or will the Niners continue their recent winning ways and control their fate?
Music City Miracle
The Titans are an interesting bunch this season. They have conquered juggernauts like the Rams, Chiefs, Bills, and Colts (twice). Even with their season sweep against the Colts this year, they are only one game ahead of them in the division standings. With Indianapolis firing on all cylinders at this point in the season, Tennessee cannot afford to lose this game tonight.
Quarterback Ryan Tannehill is still an upper-echelon signal-caller. However, his numbers are not as gaudy this season as in years past. He comes in as the 11th-rated QB regarding the EPA (expected points added) + CPOE (completion percentage over expected) composite.
Efficiency Metrics
The Titans offense as a whole is somewhat of a question mark in 2021. When focusing on EPA, they look like one of the best offenses in the league, ranking 11th overall with the 11th-best aerial attack and seventh-best run game.
These numbers were bolstered by superstar RB Derrick Henry prior to his injury. When focusing on DVOA (Football Outsiders’ efficiency metric), however, Tennesee’s offense is mediocre. They rank 19th overall with the 21st-ranked passing attack and 10th-ranked ground unit. Can the Titans continue to put up gaudy numbers even without their main offensive catalyst?
The defense has never been the strong suit of the Titans, and when you have an offense that was as explosive as they had, it didn’t matter. This season, Tennessee has an above-average defense, which is better than what they are used to. They rank 12th overall in DVOA and 14th in defensive EPA. However, the disparity between their rush defense and their pass defense is massive.
In both EPA and DVOA, the Titans rank ninth against the pass but no better than 25th against the run. With a team like the Niners — whose entire existence is based on establishing the run and utilizing play-action off of it — will Tennessee be able to slow down their aggressive bruisers? Can the Titans’ defense shore up their run defense inadequacies and make them a viable pick for our Thursday Night Football prediction?
Ready to Rumble
It finally looks like the Niners are back, and head coach Kyle Shanahan has re-established their desired game plan. With the multitude of injuries they faced this season, especially at the RB position, San Francisco is finally healthy and ready to make a legitimate playoff run.
The 49ers’ offense works best when it runs through the ground attack, and Jimmy G is only relied on in key situations and to take the top off the defense with play-action and yards after the catch.
The 49ers’ offense is rolling
Speaking of offense, the 49ers come into this game with a top-tier attack. Regarding EPA, San Francisco has the 12th-best offense with a top-10 passing attack. The run game only ranks 15th, but again, the majority of that can be blamed on the recurring injuries they suffered earlier this season. As seen recently, they are much more explosive when Wilson, Mitchell, and tight end George Kittle are healthy.
When focusing on DVOA, however, the 49ers’ offense is elite. They come in with the third-best offense, which is bolstered by their balanced fifth-ranked passing attack and seventh-ranked ground unit. The Niners pride themselves on their defensive fortitude, but this season is slightly different. They’re not the same elite defense of years past, but they are an above-average unit. DVOA has them ranked higher than EPA across the board, with their 13th overall defense led by their fifth-ranked run defense but hindered by their 20th-ranked secondary.
EPA has them at 19th overall with a 22nd-ranked secondary and 11th-ranked run defense. Similar to their counterpart, the 49ers’ weakness is the Titans’ strength, and Tannehill should have plenty of opportunities to expose San Francisco through the air.
Will the porous secondary for San Francisco be the deciding factor in this game? Or will the 49ers’ run defense make the Titans one-dimensional and finish with a win as a pick for tonight’s Thursday Night Football prediction?
Titans vs. 49ers prediction and pick
Tannehill and the Titans have been up and down as of late. Yet, I’m expecting a correction to the mean tonight going up against one of the bottom-tier secondaries in the league.
With both A.J. Brown and Julio Jones back in the lineup, Tannehill has plenty of weapons to leave San Francisco with a win tonight. As long as Tennessee can limit the number of explosive plays on the ground from San Francisco, their explosive passing attack should do enough to keep this game close and possibly even win outright as dogs. I’ll be taking the Titans +3.5 as my official play for tonight’s Thursday Night Football prediction.