Tonight’s AFC West matchup will have significant playoff implications for both teams. The resurgent Kansas City Chiefs head to Los Angeles to challenge the mercurial Chargers as a pick for tonight’s Thursday Night Football prediction. In this prime-time matchup, let’s dive into the Chiefs vs. Chargers and determine the best choice for this NFL betting opportunity.
Thursday Night Football Pick: Chiefs vs. Chargers prediction
We open Week 15 with two teams that can take over the division with a win in tonight’s game. Kansas City is currently one game ahead of Los Angeles in the AFC West standings.
This game has such a dramatic result on the final standings because the Chargers already beat the Chiefs earlier this season. If Los Angeles were to sweep Kansas City this season, they would own the tiebreaker.
[bet-promo id=”174860″ ]Los Angeles has some interesting losses on their résumé this season. They enter this game 8-5 and have broken even each month this year besides September. The Chargers are coming into this game 2-0 in December. Are they bound to regress to a 2-2 finish this month like the previous two?
Can the Chiefs exact revenge tonight to be a viable pick in this Thursday Night Football prediction? Or will the Chargers embarrass this Chiefs team again and control their fate?
Kansas City Barbeque
Kansas City is cooking right now. After last week’s destruction of the Las Vegas Raiders, the Chiefs are on a six-game winning streak and have eliminated any early-season worries about their playoff hopes. Both the offense and defense have come together to reinvigorate the team and push them back to the forefront of the AFC.
While all the talk during the first half of the season was whether quarterback Patrick Mahomes could corral his backyard style of play to lead an efficient offense, Kansas City has quietly fielded a top-five offense.
When removing garbage time, the Chiefs rank in the top eight in every advanced metric regarding DVOA (Football Outsiders’ efficiency metric) and EPA (Expected Points Added). Whether they are attacking opponents through the air (eighth in DVOA, sixth in EPA) or on the ground (sixth in both), Kansas City is getting it done. This season, Mahomes also comes in as the sixth-ranked QB on the EPA + CPOE (completions over expected) composite.
The defense has never been the strong suit of the Chiefs. And when you have an offense that can score immediately, it makes sense. This year, Kansas City has a below-average defense once again. They rank 17th in DVOA and 25th in defensive EPA. However, since Week 8, the unit has been stellar. Kansas City owns the fourth-best total defense regarding EPA, with a top-five secondary and a top-10 front seven.
This defensive improvement for the Chiefs has come against the Giants, Packers, Raiders (twice), Cowboys, and Broncos. Three of those teams are in the upper echelon regarding offensive output.
Will the Chiefs’ defense continue their recent dominance tonight, making them a viable pick for our Thursday Night Football prediction?
Mirror, Mirror, on the Wall
Just who are the Chargers? They beat up the easy teams like the Browns, Eagles, Steelers, Giants, Raiders, and Washington. Then, they lose to teams like the Ravens, Patriots, Vikings, Broncos, and Cowboys. At some point, Los Angeles will need to put all the pieces together to make a legitimate playoff push.
Offensively, the Chargers do just fine. Second-year QB Justin Herbert has a big arm and creates plenty of time on the ground with his legs to open up plays downfield. They have an explosive running back in Austin Ekeler and a top offense in EPA and DVOA. LA has also done a much better job of pushing the ball down the field since their bye week. There are no question marks when it comes to this offense.
On defense, however, Los Angeles leaves much to be desired. The Chargers rank 20th in EPA and DVOA, and much of the blame comes down to their run defense. According to DVOA, LA has the worst run defense in the league. EPA ranks them slightly better at 27th overall. Still, they can stop the pass decently, as the Chargers have the ninth-best pass defense regarding DVOA and the 15th-best in terms of EPA.
Will the defensive deficiency for the Chargers be the deciding factor in this game? Or will they put all the pieces together and squeak out a win as a pick for tonight’s Thursday Night Football prediction?
Chiefs vs. Chargers prediction and pick
Both teams need this win for AFC West and playoff implications. The Chiefs and Chargers each field top-five offenses, which is a moot point. The critical difference between these two teams comes down to their defensive capabilities. Over the last seven weeks, Kansas City has proven to be superior to Los Angeles defensively.
Sweeping a divisional rival is a difficult task, especially considering each of these teams’ quality of talent. SoFi Stadium has one of the most negligible home-field advantages this season. Due to that, the Chiefs faithful should fill the stadium for tonight’s prime-time matchup. I’ll be taking Kansas City -3 as my official pick for tonight’s Thursday Night Football prediction.