If you’re making a Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders Thursday Night Football NFL DFS lineup in Week 6, you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Bears vs. Commanders DFS Lineup
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players. The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data.
Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes. Criteria such as age, durability, shifting personnel, schedule, and other factors help shape these final assessments.
Bears DFS Considerations
Last season, Chicago had the league’s lowest third-down conversation rate: 34.72%. It marked the second consecutive year they sat at the bottom. (Incidentally, Washington held the lowest mark the year before that, but we’ll get to them shortly.)
The good news this year is that the Bears are only fifth-worst in third-down conversions. The bad news? They’ve moved up only 0.28 percentage points.
It’s tempting to assume this team will continue to struggle to find the end zone, and instead settle for field goals. Cairo Santos has averaged a sterling 14.5 DFS points in each of his last two outings. Surely, he’ll be a suitably cheap option to round out an otherwise upside-friendly lineup.
And yet, we have to consider ceilings as well as the reality that sub-middling offenses are not recipes for long-term kicker success. (I’ve done the research on this going back more than a decade, and the findings are fascinating.) So while Santos might be a decent bet for 10+ points tonight, his value is tied directly to how few reliable producers Chicago has.
So, as we begin to craft this DFS lineup, we should consider what a Fields-Montgomery-Santos approach would mean for our remaining three slots. Or is it possible that Darnell Mooney or even the less expensive Cole Kmet could break out?
Commanders DFS Considerations
For Washington, let’s begin with the backfield. I shared publicly in mid-August that Brian Robinson was the Commanders RB to bet on to lead this group. Now that he’s recovered from a tragic shooting that could have ended his career, if not his life, Robinson once again is the best bet. Antonio Gibson continues to struggle, while J.D. McKissic has never been viewed as a bell cow or even as a 1A back.
That said, we don’t know if or when Washington will commit to Robinson. Gibson never profiled as a bell cow in college but was thrust into the role by necessity as a 2020 rookie. He thrived and then regressed a bit last season, and now has regressed further. Realistically, the team could employ a three-headed backfield featuring Robinson (10-14 touches), Gibson (4-8 touches), and McKissic (3-5 touches). All three, then, would be TD-dependent DFS options.
So our attention turns to a solid one-two WR punch of Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel and to a quarterback (Carson Wentz) who might get pulled at any time. This franchise is 1-4 and presumably done dreaming about a postseason berth if they don’t win this one. Rookie Sam Howell looms.
If we believe Wentz will play tonight as if his career depends on it, could he, McLaurin, and Samuel wind up as Washington’s highest scorers?
Recommended Bears vs. Commanders DFS Picks/Lineup
This proposed DFS lineup assumes a game script where Chicago scores at least three touchdowns against a defense giving up the eighth-most points per game despite that same defense having played two teams (the Cowboys and Titans) that are bottom-10 in points scored. Fields ($10,000), Montgomery ($10,400), and Mooney ($7,600) should combine for 45+ DFS points.
In a “normal” competition, that might not be intriguing. In this matchup, it’s plenty intriguing. These three are Chicago’s top starters, and as a result, they’re the best bets to elevate their production above expectations.
Meanwhile, we’ll roll with McLaurin ($9,000 normally, $13,500 as Captain) in our Captain slot. I believe Wentz will lean on him heavily in a must-win game, assuming his backfield can’t get it done. I’m pairing McLaurin with Samuel, assuming 130+ yards and at least one score between the two.
That leaves only $300 for one slot — barely enough to find value. Except, there is one player I have in mind: Cole Turner, the rookie TE who enjoyed a 51% snap share last weekend with Logan Thomas sidelined. Assuming Thomas sits again, Turner ($200) brings solid TD-dependent upside despite a brutally low floor. His presence enables us to snag five terrific playmakers for our other slots.
If Thomas ($2,200) somehow returns and rejoins, then I’d go with Thomas. To make up for our $1,900 deficit, we’d replace Mooney with the boom-bust Dyami Brown ($5,000).