The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had the rug pulled out from under them against the Cincinnati Bengals — or rather, they yanked the rug out from under themselves. After scoring 17 unanswered points to open Sunday’s game, the Bucs committed a cavalcade of turnovers en route to an embarrassing defeat.
And yet, given the state of the NFC South — where every team is still below .500 — the Buccaneers still look like the favorites to grab a postseason berth.
The Buccanneers Are Going To Limp Into the Playoffs
Tampa Bay led Cincinnati 17-3 at halftime and had better than an 80% chance to win Sunday’s game. Then, the avalanche began.
Despite leading by two touchdowns to start the third quarter, the Bucs oddly tried a fake punt on 4th-and-1 from their own 26. Giovani Bernard didn’t realize the fake was coming and couldn’t handle the snap, leading to a Bengals fumble recovery.
After Cincinnati scored on their ensuing possession, Tom Brady got picked off by Tre Flowers on Tampa Bay’s next drive. Brady then fumbled on the Buccaneers’ next two series, each of which cost Tampa at least 13 percentage points of win probability.
The Bengals couldn’t stop scoring, while the Bucs’ last two meaningful drives ended with another interception and a punt. What looked like a crucial victory for Tampa Bay at halftime turned into a 34-23 Bengals win that wasn’t even as close as the final score indicated.
The Buccaneers have now lost two straight and three of their last four to put their record at 6-8. No Brady-led team has ever managed fewer than nine regular-season wins, but Tampa Bay will have to win out to continue that streak.
What Do the Buccaneers’ Postseason Odds Look Like?
Brady has certainly not played well over the last two weeks. But the Bucs could be in a much more precarious position had Brady not pulled out some magic against the Rams in Week 9 and the Saints in Week 13.
Tampa Bay had no right to win either of those games. A miraculous 29-second scoring drive allowed the Bucs to pull out a victory against Los Angeles, while two touchdowns in the final 5:21 — plus horrendous game management by the Saints — helped Tampa beat New Orleans.
Without those two victories in hand, the Buccaneers would be 4-10 and essentially out of the playoff picture. But as things stand, Tampa Bay still has a very good shot of making the playoffs.
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The NFC South will almost assuredly come down to the Bucs and Panthers. The New York Times’ playoff tool gives Tampa Bay a 72% chance to win the division, while Carolina has one-in-five odds. The Falcons and Saints aren’t entirely eliminated, but they each have only a 4% chance of grabbing a playoff berth.
Luckily for the Bucs, their rest-of-season schedule is extremely easy. In fact, they have the least difficult slate of remaining games of any team in the league, according to Football Outsiders.
Tampa Bay will first head to Arizona to face the Cardinals, who will likely be on their third quarterback of the season after backup Colt McCoy suffered a concussion on Sunday. The Bucs then get a home rematch against the Panthers before taking on rookie QB Desmond Ridder and the Falcons in what will be Ridder’s fourth career start.
The Buccaneers’ most critical game will be that Week 17 matchup against Carolina, who already beat Tampa Bay earlier this season and thus holds the head-to-head tiebreaker. If Brady and the Bucs can beat the Panthers, they’ll nearly lock up the NFC South even if Carolina wins its other two games (vs. Lions, at Saints).
If Tampa loses to the Panthers, they can still win the NFC South, but they’ll need Carolina to lose at least one of their other games. There is a myriad of other scenarios at play, but this is the Buccaneers’ most direct path to the playoffs.
No team in the NFC South deserves to make the postseason. But if Tampa Bay can’t find a way to win two games against the trio of Trace McSorley, Sam Darnold, and Ridder, the Buccaneers’ 2022 campaign will go from a mere disaster to a Hindenburg-esque catastrophe.