Odell Beckham Jr. is reportedly targeting a mid-November return after tearing his ACL in the Super Bowl, and the free agent receiver should have plenty of suitors. Rumors inside league circles have tied Beckham to the Kansas City Chiefs, and it’s a union that could make plenty of sense.
Kansas City Chiefs Linked to Odell Beckham Jr.
The Chiefs and Beckham’s mutual interest shouldn’t come as any surprise. After the Browns waived OBJ last November, Kansas City was immediately mentioned as one of Beckham’s preferred destinations. Hours before he signed with the Rams, the Chiefs were still viewed as the favorites to land him.
Of course, Kansas City’s receiver room has undergone dramatic change since last fall. Tyreek Hill is gone, and JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Skyy Moore are in.
Even with all that upheaval, the Chiefs are doing just fine on offense, thank you very much. Kansas City is leading the NFL in points scored, points per drive, and EPA per play. If MVP voting were held today, Patrick Mahomes would probably come in second behind Josh Allen.
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Look under the hood, though, and there is room for improvement on KC’s wide receiver depth chart. Travis Kelce notwithstanding, the Chiefs’ pass-catching group has largely been a “sum of its parts” unit.
Yards per route run has proven to be a predictive metric for future receiving success. Kansas City doesn’t have a WR with more than 1.75 yards per route run, and none of their receivers are in the top 40 league-wide in YPRR.
Another good way to measure WR efficiency is by looking at Football Outsiders’ individual DVOA, which tracks value on a per-play basis. Smith-Schuster is the Chiefs’ best wide receiver by DVOA, but he ranks 34th in the NFL, while MVS is 50th.
There’s a spot for Beckham on Kansas City’s roster, and his addition would help the Chiefs place their receivers in more defined roles. Smith-Schuster is only playing 43% of his snaps in the slot — he’d play almost exclusively on the inside if KC signs Beckham.
Meanwhile, Valdes-Scantling’s average depth of target is down to 10.5 yards after he averaged 16.3 yards over four seasons with the Packers. With Beckham in tow, the Chiefs could make better use of MVS’ speed on deep balls and clear-out routes.
Instead of relying on Hill as their alpha WR1, the Chiefs decided to build a more well-rounded receiving corps. They’re almost there, and Beckham could be the final ingredient in an outstanding recipe.
Projecting Beckham’s Contract With the Chiefs
The Chiefs should want Beckham, and Beckham should want to land in Kansas City. As he rehabs his value in advance of 2023 free agency, OBJ will want to post the best performance he possibly can.
But playing in the spotlight will also help drive up his price next spring. There’s no better way for Beckham to keep his name in headlines than by going on a deep playoff run while catching the ball from one of the league’s best quarterbacks.
Could he do the same thing with the Bills, who have also been mentioned as a potential destination for OBJ? Potentially, but Buffalo already has two solidified outside receivers in Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. Beckham has never played more than 30% of his snaps in the slot, so his fit with the Bills isn’t as snug as it would be with the Chiefs.
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What could Beckham’s contract with Kansas City look like? OBJ reportedly wanted a Michael Gallup-type contract from the Rams, but there’s no chance he gets that level of deal. Gallup received five years and $57 million ($23 million guaranteed) from the Cowboys. Free agents signing in November don’t land contracts like that.
Instead, the Chiefs would likely aim to give Beckham something close to what he got from the Rams last November: a one-year pact worth up to $4.5 million.
“Up to” is the operative phrase there. Los Angeles handed OBJ a $500K signing bonus and $750K for the remainder of the season. The other $3 million was comprised of team-based incentives, which Beckham eventually cashed in on when the Rams won the Super Bowl.
Kansas City could toy with Beckham’s cap charge by instituting “not likely to be earned” team-level incentives. In the NFL, incentive thresholds are based on what occurred the prior season. If the Chiefs gave OBJ incentives for KC making or winning the Super Bowl — neither of which they did last year — those incentives would be considered “not likely to be earned.”
That’s important because those types of incentives wouldn’t count on the Chiefs’ 2022 salary cap. If KC ended up winning the Lombardi Trophy and Beckham cashed in, the Chiefs wouldn’t take a salary cap debit until next season.
The Chiefs recently restructured Kelce’s contract, opening up cap space and inviting Three Days of the Condor-esque conspiracies on what Kansas City was up to. The move helped the cap-strapped Chiefs account for practice squad elevations, but they won’t need all of the newly-created $3.5 million for taxi squad promotions.
Andy Reid and the Chiefs have never been afraid to make mid- or late-season additions. They signed Darrelle Revis in Nov. 2017, added Le’Veon Bell in Oct. 2020, and acquired Melvin Ingram at last year’s trade deadline.
Revis and Bell didn’t work out, but Ingram was a driving force on Kansas City’s defense over the back half of the 2021 campaign. If they sign Beckham, the Chiefs hope he’ll become the same sort of catalyst on the offensive side of the ball.