For fans, seeing the Dallas Cowboys‘ offense unable to move the ball inside the Tampa Bay 30-yard line was frustratingly foreseen. Many believed the offense was downtrodden, and Cowboys Nation became fatalistic in its feelings toward how the offense would suffice after trading Amari Cooper and losing Tyron Smith. And their Week 1 matchup against the Buccaneers confirmed all their greatest fears.
Then, when Dak Prescott hurt the thumb on his throwing hand, it became draft season in Week 2. Fast-forward 16 weeks and the Cowboys had risen from the ashes like a phoenix, first through the dominance of their defense and then with a balance between the three units. As the defense lost pieces due to injury, the offense surged, despite a cornucopia of offensive mistakes leading to turnovers.
But then the Cowboys visited the Commanders in Week 18. The season’s bookends ended up being Dallas’ two worst performances, particularly of the Prescott-led offenses. How can they avoid another disastrous performance? They’ll need everyone to be at their best.
How the Cowboys’ Offense Can Avoid Disaster
There are a few general necessities, and Kellen Moore has already hit on those this week, much to the chagrin of fans. The Cowboys do need to run the ball efficiently on first and second down. But nobody is upset about doing something well. Fans get upset when first and second-down runs turn into third-and-longs, which has happened to Dallas far too often.
There are times where running vs. passing makes sense. No offense is going to go under center or in shotgun and throw on every first down. But Dallas should look to throw the ball on first down against Tampa Bay, and there is a specific way they should go about doing that.
Adequately protecting Dak is another one of the core principles Dallas must accomplish to win in the playoffs. That means trying to avoid third-and-long instead of actively inviting it.
Empty Formations on First Down
This phenomenon popped up when watching Tampa’s game against Cincinnati. The Bengals started the game in empty, and although things changed in the game once the Buccaneers started using the football as a hot potato, Tampa Bay was pretty predictable in empty looks.
Moore is a better offensive coordinator than he’s given credit for. But he has a few clear flaws. The early-down runs and 2nd-and-10 runs are all part of the same problem.
When caddying for a terrible golfer, “forever forward” becomes the mantra. Golf is the most beautiful, and frustrating, game in the world. And that is Moore’s problem. He has a forever forward attitude when the professional game has evolved into “bomb & gouge.”
The NFL is not so dissimilar. It’s not easy to score playing death by a thousand cuts. Explosive plays are a better predictor than anything of a potential offensive score. But Moore has a forever-forward attitude, believing that gaining a few yards here and there is better than gaining none at all.
The best offensive coordinators try to avoid crossing third down like citizens avoid Geralt of Rivia as he strides into town. Moore lives for “third and manageable.” So let us get there, efficiently.
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Tampa Bay will most likely play a Cover 3 variant against empty. At least, that’s how they handled it against Cincinnati. Brock Purdy’s interception came on an empty throw, but the Buccaneers played man coverage and dropped a lineman into the hole on a sim pressure. They also ran some Cover 5 against the 49ers, but that was on third down.
The Buccaneers will probably sit in static Cover 3 or show two-high and use the safety to the trips side as a buzz defender, driving down on the No. 3 option to the strong side. That could be dangerous to a QB if they get there quickly, but it could also lead to a few easy completions to Dalton Schultz.
But the easier solution, and one Dallas doesn’t love, is to attack outside of the numbers. Quick stopping routes (horizontal spacing), Ohio concepts (outside receiver runs vertical and slot runs an out), and even slant/flat are options against Cover 3 to get some easy completions on first down.
Overload the Zone
In the effort to keep things moving forward, we must give Prescott some easy completions. One way to do this is to overload a side of the field with four receiving options, which should, in turn, take some coverage away from the backside.
Dallas runs a Double-China concept here, with two receivers stopping their routes and working back inside to the trips side, with CeeDee Lamb running a corner route. But the interesting development here comes from the alignment and deployment of Ezekiel Elliott.
Elliott immediately flares to the strong side of the trips, which is considered a fast four. Teams like to stay plus-one in coverage, meaning they’d like five coverage defenders to Dallas’ four. That’s why the MIKE linebacker immediately opens his hips to that side. He’s getting ready to wall the underneath crossing pattern he’s expecting or flip and carry a deeper cross.
That vacates the backside hook, as the safety can’t drive quickly enough, and the cornerbacks outside and overtop leverage renders him useless against the quick slant.
Play With Bowles’ Hubris
Joe Tryon-Shoyinka is a good football player. However, he’s a pass rusher and not an off-ball linebacker. Still, he had 106 coverage snaps in 2022, and Moore can use that bit of information to his advantage.
The Buccaneers bring both of their linebackers on a blitz here. While the ball goes to George Kittle for a nice gain here, a few things make this play intriguing:
- The 49ers are in 11 personnel, with all three receivers to the field in trips. That’s about as strong as a strength gets. Even if they opted to only send four linemen on the rush here, the options are plentiful for the Cowboys to use this.
- Tryon-Shoyinka drops into the flat, with inside leverage, against Christian McCaffrey. This screams for a Tony Pollard wheel or out-and-up shot paired with the slant. Because of the quickness of the concept and the underneath nature of McCaffrey’s route, the cornerback will almost surely drive on the slant, vacating the deep third. It’ll take some time to protect it, but it’s a chance to create an explosive play.
- Lavonte David is a great linebacker, even in coverage. But Dallas could run this even if he’s the one responsible for the flat instead of Tryon-Shoyinka. He’ll either fly out to the flat and open the slant window, or he’ll be late and allow a completion to Pollard/Elliott.
Bowles has confidence in Shoyinka in coverage, and it allows him to use his linebackers as blitzers. Take that away from him by actively trying to get Pollard matched up with Shoyinka in these situations. Take that confidence away from the DC.
Remember Play-Action Exists
The Cowboys’ play-action passing game mimics their dropback game. While most use play-action not just to lure linebackers forward and replace them with passes but to take downfield shots, Dallas does not.
The Cowboys use it… as a different look? Only Kirk Cousins, Matt Ryan, Baker Mayfield, and Kenny Pickett have averaged fewer yards per attempt on play-action among the 28 qualifying members with at least 350 dropbacks.
But Dallas’ rollout game has often given them easy completions, either to a tight end on a late release to the flat or a crossing receiver. It allows Prescott time to operate and see the entire field. It also gives the receivers more time to find some space, which is important given that they average about as much separation as Time Square’s New Year’s festivities patrons have.
One way to beat Cover 3 is to run double posts, as the Cowboys did here, although they didn’t get Cover 3 here against Washington. Against Tampa Bay, Dallas should consider running a similar concept, with a few changes.
First, run this from under center. Have Prescott turn around and show his back to the defense. That should get the linebackers gravitating toward the line of scrimmage more, which would open the middle of the field more adequately.
This play is difficult to defend for Cover 3 teams because the inside post forces the safety to carry, and it’s difficult for the cornerback with outside leverage to defend the outside post.
Next, the inside receiver should be Lamb. He’s the team’s WR1 by about the length of a football field, and he has a much more significant gravitational pull for the middle-of-field safety. Have him run that post, but then have him stop between 15-20 yards.
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Dallas must also keep the backside cornerback occupied so he’s unable to defend Lamb’s post. Having *insert decoy receiver here* run a deep curl outside of the numbers instead of a dig will keep that CB occupied.
Lastly, for the love of all things holy, have your only fast receiver run the outside post. The safety will either stop to match Lamb or keep gaining depth to defend the post, leaving him open for a nice chunk gain. If not, T.Y. Hilton could be making a huge play in his fourth week as a Cowboy.
Which, coincidentally, brings me to the last point.
T.Y. Hilton Needs More Snaps
Hilton has played 12, 22, and 26 snaps for the Cowboys since arriving in Dallas. It’s time for 40+ if his stamina can handle it.
Dallas desperately needs a speed threat. Prescott made a horrific decision on the pick-six to Kendall Fuller, but the overarching problem is that nobody is afraid a Cowboys’ receiver will outrun them. That allowed Fuller to remain flat-footed and drive. Lamb is a legitimate No. 1 receiver at this point, but even he doesn’t scare defenses vertically.
Hilton does.
He doesn’t need double-digit targets to make a difference. His speed puts defenders on their heels, creating larger throwing windows in zone coverage and allowing Hilton to separate underneath on in and out-breaking routes.
The Cowboys refuse to use their running backs as interior outlets to try and coax linebackers forward, thus creating even less margin for error for their QB throwing over the middle. The absence of speed allows safeties and cornerbacks to stay flat and drive on passes, which is why we’ve seen a few of the many Prescott interceptions this season.
Speed changes the math. And the Cowboys need to change the math to find consistent success through the air.