Kellen Moore places an incredible burden on the shoulders of Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott. While that certainly won’t and shouldn’t change in 2022, Moore needs to take the next step in his evolution as an offensive coordinator and find a way to make things easier for his quarterback.
Maximizing the Cowboys offense without vital offensive weapons
Part of the beauty of Prescott and the offense is his processing ability and, even more so, his ability to distribute the ball to the correct read effortlessly. Very few signal-callers can do it like Prescott when it comes to reading defenses and getting through all 3-4 options in a progression. It made him a $40 million QB despite being a fourth-round pick and lacking the physical tools of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers, and Justin Herbert.
But that burden placed on Prescott can also be the Cowboys’ downfall. Moore’s lack of offensive identity or go-to calls that ensure the ball gets into their best playmaker’s hands has hurt them on multiple occasions, including their playoff loss against San Francisco, when they couldn’t protect Prescott well enough to be efficient as a passer.
So how do they fix it?
The Cowboys will be without Michael Gallup to start the season, although his rehabilitation has gone well. They’ll also be without free agent addition James Washington, who they were counting on to give them quality snaps before a Jones fracture sidelined him.
The reported return was 6-10 weeks for Washington. However, from 2010-2015, nine of the 15 players who returned before 10 weeks eventually had to receive a second surgery. The average decrease in performance was 53.2%, compared to a 9.4% increase in those who waited longer. Of the 27 players who returned after 10 weeks, only four required a second surgery.
And then there was the horrifying injury Tyron Smith suffered to his knee, which will leave him out of the lineup until at least December, if not the entire season.
We could nitpick areas of improvement all over the offense. However, we’ve already fixed the Cowboys’ rushing attack for 2022, so we can look directly at the aerial assualt here. The main areas the Cowboys could improve to mitigate their offensive personnel woes are their screen game, play-action passing, and finding ways to produce explosive plays quickly.
Improving the screen game
First and foremost, the Cowboys need to get a bit nerdy and a bit old-school at the same time. For all the negative narratives surrounding former offensive coordinator Scott Linehan, when and how he called screens to Ezekiel Elliott was not one of them. But Dallas’ more modern offense utilizes more wide receiver screens as part of that packaging.
Modernity is not always the best. Outside wide receiver screens simply aren’t very efficient, no matter how many times the Cowboys try to use them.
From 2016-2020, outside receiver screens produced a negative EPA per play, whereas slot receivers, running backs, and tight ends all produced positive results. Only three teams in 2020 found positive results more often than negative: the Chiefs, Buccaneers, and Packers.
If the Cowboys want to improve their receiver screen game, they must do several things.
Wide receivers aren’t known as the best blockers in the world. Part of the reason tight end and running back screens are so effective is that receivers and defensive backs are run off, leaving the men paid to block for a living the ones leading the way.
The Cowboys do a few things correctly here, although finding a positive result with only five in the box is against the norm. Outside receiver screens are more effective against seven- and eight-man boxes.
First, they found the only correct answer to the test, throwing the ball to CeeDee Lamb for this screen. Dallas may use KaVontae Turpin in these situations sparingly, but of the non-gadget receivers, Lamb is the only one who needs to touch the ball.
Watch any of his carries from last season to understand further why that’s the case. His rushing attempt against Washington is probably the best example of his vision, patience, and shiftiness with the ball in his hands.
Second, the condensed formation keeps the defense tighter to the formation as well. But on the snap, Lamb and the blockers both retreat toward the sideline, which makes the three underneath defensive backs shoot out to an obtuse angle, much like how an inside toss play often makes defenders overpursue.
There are two more ways to improve the screen game, too. Tight end screens are the most effective of all the screens. Dallas happens to roster a playmaker at the position.
Dalton Schultz is far niftier with the ball in his hands than he’s given credit for. Only George Kittle, Travis Kelce, and Rob Gronkowski forced more missed tackles a season ago. Using him more should be an answer to slow down the pass rush against an underwhelming offensive line.
Oh, and the Cowboys also roster one of the most explosive and elusive runners in the league in Tony Pollard. And Pollard played receiver in college, so using him in the passing attack would just be common sense.
Improving play action
The Cowboys were underwhelming when they used play action a season ago. Dallas only used it on 26% of Prescott’s dropbacks, which ranked 17th in the NFL. But even when they used it, they couldn’t produce splash plays. They ranked inside the bottom third of explosive pass plays off play action, which was something even the most casual football fan could notice when watching Dallas’ offense.
Prescott would turn his back to the defense and fake the handoff, then turn around and look, look, and look, until he was forced to check the ball down to his outlet for a minimal gain.
Improving play action will come down to Moore’s ability to play the chess game against the defense. Far too often a season ago, the concept didn’t attack the coverage but fell right into its hands. Moore must improve his understanding of how defenses match up against the Cowboys. That is simply part of his maturation as a play-caller.
Producing explosives
Dallas wasn’t awful in this area last season. They ranked 12th in explosive pass play rate a season ago. Prescott once again proved himself an outstanding downfield passer in 2021, despite playing through a calf injury that was more severe than it was reported during the season.
Getting Michael Gallup back quicker than initially anticipated is crucial for the Cowboys because of his downfield rapport with Prescott. With teams playing more two-high shell defenses in the NFL now, Dallas must pick and choose when to attack downfield.
Prescott likes working through all his progressions and getting the ball to the correct option, but his time to throw last season was shockingly low. Prescott was getting the ball out quickly, and Dallas couldn’t get the deep crossing patterns to Lamb for explosive plays in the passing attack. That will likely be the case with what looks like an underwhelming offensive line once again this season.
But consistently getting the ball out quickly can lead to defenses creeping, as Washington did in the above video. But Prescott’s passing ability has never manifested itself into being a consistent back-shoulder thrower. Not that he can’t do it, the Cowboys offense just doesn’t do it often. Using Lamb’s leaping and contested ability on the sideline in obvious blitzing situations could be exactly what the doctor ordered for Dallas.
Lamb feasted in the air along the sideline while at Oklahoma, and he could do it at the NFL level if given the opportunity. While those throws may feel like low-percentage shots, the back-shoulder throw is one of the more indefensible things in football.
Moore and the Cowboys’ offense needs to find ways to react to how the defense is defending them throughout a game. They must learn to zig when the defense is zagging. If the defense is running a lot of soft Cover 2 or 4, they must figure out ways to conflict the linebackers and attack the middle of the field on quick passing concepts.