Offensive Share Metric (OSM) is the measure of how a player performed based on the elements of the game that were solely under their control. Here are the five biggest OSM storylines heading into week 6.
Christian McCaffery versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense
Carolina Panthers’ star running back Christian McCaffery is coming off of his biggest game of the season from a raw yardage standpoint. The former Stanford Cardinal went off for an obscene 176 yards and 2 touchdowns on 19 carries while also pitching in another 61 yards and a touchdown through the air catching 6 of his 9 targets.
McCaffery’s performance earned him a 22.04 OSM score, which was right in line with the 24.31 and 22.84 marks he registered in weeks one and three, respectively. His strengths with regard to OSM lie in his Efficiency (EFF) and Time Behind the Line of Scrimmage (TLOS). McCaffery’s 2.99 EFF (yards traveled to the line of scrimmage) is third among all running backs while his TLOS of 2.65 is good for tenth. Translation: he wastes very little time getting north and south.
The one major exception to McCaffery’s otherwise consistent OSM score came against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 2, where he was held to a paltry 3.55 OSM. The culprit? His EFF plummeted to 6.87 yards. Likewise, his TLOS ballooned to 3.01. The result? 16 carries for 37 yards in what was easily one of the least productive games of McCaffery’s young career.
We will find out if the Buccaneer’s top-ranked run defense can once again contain one of NFL’s most explosive talents when the two teams play in London on Sunday morning.
Can Will Fuller build on his breakout performance?
The Will Fuller many expected to see in 2019 finally arrived against the Atlanta Falcons last Sunday. The former Notre Dame speedster exploded for 14 receptions, 217 yards, and three touchdowns on 16 targets. This comes after he managed just 14 catches for 183 yards total over the first four games of the season.
As one might expect, Fuller’s performance also resulted in his highest OSM score at 47.81 – well above his 27.67 average. However, the higher marks are more a reflection of the quality of his routes and yards after the catch than raw productivity. Remember, OSM isn’t a measure of value or production. It provides context on what players are contributing individually to a game.
In this case, it was Fuller’s average Separation (SEP) of 4.0 (tied for 6th among week 5 WR) yards at the time of catch from the closest defender and his 2.3 (tied for 8th) yards over Expected Yards After Catch (xYAC/R) that made his performance special.
Thus far, Fuller’s breakout appears to be an outlier and likely the result of playing against the Falcons’ 30th-rated pass defense. This week they face a Kansas City Chiefs’ pass defense that ranks eighth.
Breida and Coleman versus the Rams defense
The San Francisco 49ers will face the Los Angeles Rams this Sunday without Pro Bowl fullback Kyle Juszczyk and starting tackles Joe Staley and Mike McGlinchey. This will put even more pressure on running backs Matt Breida and Tevin Coleman to carry the load and help minimize exposure to their reserve tackles.
It may be fortuitous timing that they are both coming off of their best OSM performances of the season. Breida’s 27.08 was second among all running backs in Week 5 while Coleman’s 23.26 came in just behind him at fourth. Now, pretty much any metric loves to see 10.4 and 6.1 yards per carrying (Breida and Coleman respectively), but what OSM loved, in particular, was that they did it against a stacked box of eight or more defenders (8+D%) 37% of the time.
Coincidentally, the Rams employed a stacked box 37% of the time against Seattle’s Chris Carson last week yet yielded 118 yards on 27 carries (4.4 YPC). This gives the 49ers a viable strategy that matches an approach they will be all but forced to use out of necessity.
Alvin Kamara versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense
McCaffery isn’t the only player that suffered his lowest OSM output against the Buccaneers. Alvin Kamara, too, was stifled by the stingy Tampa Bay run defense. His 5.63 mark came in well below his 17.14 overall score.
The formula was much the same. The Bucs forced Kamara to spend more time (3.09 TLOS) and take more steps (4.9 EFF, fifth-worst) behind the line of scrimmage, thus limiting his opportunities to attack the second and third levels.
This week he will face the same Jaguars defense that just allowed McCaffery to get to the line of scrimmage with absolutely no resistance. His 2.25 EFF was the fastest of the week, while his 2.42 TLOS came in second. If Kamara gets similar space to operate, he could be in for a monster week.
Aaron Jones versus the Detroit Lions defense
The Green Bay Packers finally got Aaron Jones going when they needed him most in a crucial road with against the Dallas Cowboys. With Devante Adams out, Jones carried the load to the tune of 19 carries, 107 yards, and 4 touchdowns while also leading the team in targets (8), receptions (7), and receiving yards (75).
We documented Jones’ and the Packers’ struggles with their running game in our film room previously. OSM certainly has seen what the tape has given Jones an 11.26 (30th) overall score. However, his 18.31 mark against the Cowboys was good for tenth.
The biggest change? A near full-second reduction in EFF from 4.82 to 3.83. Indecision became aggression as Jones attacked the teeth of a Cowboys’ defense that employed an 8+ box 31.58% of the time.
This week the Packers will face a Lions’ run defense that is currently 27th against the run but fourth against the pass. If Adams is still unable to go, look for the Packers to once again ride Aaron Jones on Monday night.
Ken Grant is a writer for Pro Football Network. You can follow him @KenGrantPFN on Twitter.