The Houston Texans and San Francisco 49ers will face off in a battle of rookie quarterbacks. Davis Mills is starting for Houston, and the remainder of their season will involve judging his potential. Trey Lance will start for an injured Jimmy Garoppolo this week. San Francisco’s playing for the playoffs, as they’re currently a Wild Card team and only one game ahead of three teams. Here’s a look at the NFL odds for the Texans vs. 49ers game in Week 17, along with my pick and prediction.
Houston Texans vs. San Francisco 49ers pick, prediction | Week 17
- Spread: 49ers -13 (Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Moneyline: Texans +500, 49ers -720
- Over/Under: 44.5
Is Trey Lance ready for this type of atmosphere?
Lance was drafted third overall by San Francisco in the 2021 NFL Draft. After looking elite at North Dakota State, Lance was expected to need some time to adjust to the NFL speed.
He’s seen mixed results in limited snaps this season, throwing for 354 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception on 48 pass attempts. Lance has also added 137 yards and 1 touchdown on the ground.
[bet-promo id=”160605″ ]In just two games this season has Lance played more than 50% of the offensive snaps. He relieved Garoppolo in the 49ers’ Week 4 loss to the Seattle Seahawks in Week 4, playing 51% of the snaps. Lance went on to start the following week against the Arizona Cardinals, a game in which the Niners lost 17-10.
Since then, Lance has only played 5 offensive snaps. However, there’s reason to believe Lance could take a massive step forward against a bad Houston defense.
Texans vs. 49ers betting trends
Houston and San Francisco have both struggled a bit against the spread (ATS) in 2021.
They each own a 7-8 ATS record, covering the spread in 46.7% of their games thus far. The 49ers own a 3-4 home ATS record this season, while the Texans own the same ATS record on the road.
Although they’ve struggled on the season, San Francisco’s quietly covered in five of their last seven games. Houston, meanwhile, has covered in each of their last two games, winning outright as +6 and +13-point underdogs.
These teams boast the same over/under record in 2021 as well. They’ve hit the under in 53.3% of their games, recording a 7-8 over/under record through 15 games.
Texans vs. 49ers prediction
The 49ers aren’t necessarily in danger of losing this game. Houston features one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and Lance will add another dimension to the 49ers’ rushing offense.
The question then becomes whether they can cover a double-digit spread. It’ll likely rely heavily on how much Lance has progressed since his last start. If he can consistently make throws, the 49ers’ rushing attack should open bigger plays down the field.
I’m expecting Lance to take that step forward, and San Francisco should be extra motivated with the playoffs in mind. Although Houston’s found success in recent weeks, I expect the 49ers to easily pick up the win this weekend.
Texans vs. 49ers Prediction: 49ers 31, Texans 17